UVXY - Before/After - Next Targets!

UVXY has nearly reached it's target identified in September analysis.  UVXY is currently trading around the white trendline though could undershoot the line. 

This is an interesting setup for UVXY with an initial target of $10 and a higher potential target of $30.

2-hour Chart

Before: September 14, 2016

Daily Chart

Silver - Cycle Update - Final Leg Down!!

Silver is on the cusp of a prolonged downturn.  This leg down is anticipated to be the final leg down in the Silver bear market that began in 2011.

The Silver bear market has been underway for 5 years, and the Cycle shows another 2 years down remaining.

3-day Chart

Before: June 25th, 2016

"Silver is approaching a critical high in the Cycle. "


3-day Chart

Silver Bear Market Cycle:

XIV - Ready to Breakout - Inverse Head and Shoulders!

XIV has been flirting with a breakout of a large inverse head and shoulders pattern.  Very bullish situation with the red neckline sloped upwards, and forks pointing much higher.

XIV is testing multiple strong supports, and has room for significant upside into the US elections.  The November target is shown.

Daily Chart

No sign of a bottom yet for UVXY.  Tremendous downside ahead.

Daily Chart

$SPX - Destined to Rise into the Election!

A decline was due.  SPX obeyed the Cycle and declined into the turn date.  Today, SPX is testing strong geometric support.  There is little room for downside.

SPX is destined to rise higher into the election!

The next three turn dates for SPX are shown on the chart.   

60min Chart

$SPX - Heavy Resistance - Short Term Targets

Due to the heavy overhead resistance, SPX has struggled to gain since mid-July.  The overhead fork resistance has effectively limited the ability of SPX to advance.

Volatility is likely to increase in the months ahead.

60min Chart

XIV - Resistance Reached!

XIV has reached the main turquoise resistance, and therefore a pullback is probable. 

The next three months looks extremely volatile with a confluence of major resistance, but also rising support.  An inverse head and shoulders pattern is setting up, and will likely come into play late in the fall months.

Daily Chart

UVXY - Interesting Time and Price

Time and price has reached an interesting turning point.  Today, July 28th is the date forecast for a turn date and high.  August 10th is a date for a significant low.

UVXY appears to be ready for a pop.

15min Chart

XIV - Approaching Critical Time and Price

XIV is approaching the large June gap.  Time and price is near an interesting turning point in the week ahead.

July 28th is a date for a high.  August 10th is a date for a significant low.

60min Chart

$SPX - Deja Vu Cycle Model

SPX spiked up, and appears to be forming an ascending broadening wedge according to the Cycle model.  Currently SPX is likely forming a high. 

Support is located at the lower red line.  Therefore, SPX should work it's way down to test the lower red support line with time. 

Daily Chart

SPX Deja Vu Cycle:

$SPX - Outlook - Levels and Timing to Watch

SPX continues to struggle and test the level of long term resistance.  A pullback is due this week.  However, the level of 2,100 may offer support during July.

July 31st is an important time for a potential high.  August 10th is a date to watch for a potential low.

60min Chart

UVXY - Nearing Support - Short Term Targets

UVXY is near the fork support.  A reaction at this level may be seen with a pop.
An undershoot of the support is also possible before the next run up.

Volatility is likely to be seen particularly mid - July.

Daily Chart

XIV - Short Term Outlook with Longer Term Target

XIV tested the main pink support and the reaction has been quite strong.  Therefore, it is likely that XIV has bottomed.

However, the next date for the high is coming due tomorrow, June 30th.  XIV is approaching major short term turquoise resistance just above.  A retest of the low is probable.

15min Chart

XIV tested the main pink support.  Still trending up.

Daily Chart

$SPX - What's Next - July Targets

SPX failed at the horizontal resistance, and the decline to the purple arrow low was initiated on Friday.

The purple arrow low is due August.  SPX is likely to decline into August with several sharp bounces along the way.

There will be some soft spots during the coming week, but overall it looks positive.  Generally the market is due to consolidate during the week ahead.

Daily Chart

UVXY is slowly warming up.  High levels of complacency exist in the market which suggests significant upside for UVXY into August.

Probably an inverse head and shoulders pattern is forming. 

Daily Chart

Silver - Cycle Update - Before/After - Next Targets

Silver formed the double bottom blue arrow lows late last year as anticipated in the Cycle.  The result was a significant bounce. 

Silver is approaching a critical high in the Cycle.  It may seem tempting to view Gold and Silver as a safe haven with turmoil in the market. 

Any safe haven behavior is likely short lived according to the Cycle with a relentless decline directly ahead.

3-day Chart

Before:  November 21, 2015

"Silver is anticipated to be forming the second blue arrow low currently.  In the Cycle the blue arrow lows are a double bottom pattern.  Silver should now bounce for several months towards $17."

3-day Chart

Silver Bear Market Cycle:

$SPX - 2016 Crash Model Update - Purple Arrow Low!

SPX completed the first red arrow high in the 2016 crash model.  Currently SPX is declining to form the purple arrow low.

Importantly, the model still shows a very strong bounce from the purple arrow low up to form the second red arrow high. 

The purple arrow low is likely to form in the 1,975 to 2,000 SPX area.  The second red arrow high is due in the August/September time frame.

Daily Chart

2016 Crash Model:

Before:  May 27, 2016

Daily Chart

XIV - Important Support - Upside Target!

XIV has cooled to retest major turquoise support.  It'll be choppy, but further upside is likely as it works it's way towards the upper fork resistance. 

Short term, there is some resistance in the $28's, and more in the $30 to $32 range.

The larger, longer term trend remains down!

Daily Chart

$SPX - Horizontal Ceiling - 2016 Cycle!

SPX pulled back in May, and is currently near major resistance once again.  Upside is capped by the horizontal resistance that extends back more than a year.

The horizontal white resistance is likely to be tested in June with a high forecast June 17th.  July looks particularly negative.

Daily Chart

2016 Crash Model:

XIV consolidated during the month of May, and has cleared double resistance.  XIV should see a pullback this week, but further upside is likely in June as it works it's way towards upper fork resistance. 

The larger, longer term trend remains down!

Daily Chart

$SPX - Horizontal Resistance

SPX has effectively reached horizontal resistance for the third time over the last one year period. 

Therefore, a pullback is likely to materialize.  May looks bearish.

Daily Chart

2-hour Chart

UVXY - Geometry - Levels to Watch

UVXY is breaking below support.  Therefore, short term downside is likely in the month of April.  Notice that the downtrend for UVXY is quite shallow though.

The lower turquoise support will probably be tested.  Charts and Cycles suggest UVXY is setting up to form a low over the next 2 weeks and rise sharply in May.

60min Chart

$SPX - 2016 Cycle Model with Targets!

SPX has stalled due to the white resistance, and is simply going nowhere.  Price action is relatively quiet though, and in the short term it is unlikely to see much movement. 

Market conditions are steadily, but slowly deteriorating, and a pullback is coming according to the model. 

However, the reality is that the bears, as always, will need to have patience for the larger moves to develop.

Daily Chart

2016 Crash Model:

XIV/UVXY - Update - April Targets

XIV has reached double geometric resistance.  Movement in XIV has been defined exactly by the turquoise fork. 

Therefore, a drop is to be expected in April.

Daily Chart

UVXY has been resisted by the blue midfork.  A wedge has formed, and an April spike up is anticipated with an April target of around $30 to $32. 

Daily Chart

$SPX/VIX - Important Trendlines - 5th Wave

SPX made a dip off the white "trajectory" resistance.  It now appears to be making the 5th wave push.  The red trendline is just above in the case that it attempts to overshoot the white resistance. 

It is a similar situation as the runup in October 2015, and another failure would likely result in a significant April plunge.

It is reminiscent of 2008 - though not as severe a downtrend this time around.  In 2008, the market plunged May into November - note also an election year!

Daily

VIX is nearing the long term trendline from July 2014.

Daily

XIV/UVXY Targets - Cycle Update

It is probable that XIV is completing the blue arrow high as shown in the model.  Eventually XIV should test the lower white line, and so there is potential for a large decline ahead.

UVXY has a first target of $35 initially.  The second target suggested by the model is a minimum of $80, with potential for up to $120 as a maximum target.

The next turn date for the SPX timing Cycle is April 8th.  SPX should see a significant initial plunge by or around that date to 1930 to 1950.

2hour Chart

Hang Seng 1997 Crash Model:

UVXY short term target.  The first target is shown of a much larger move up!

2hour Chart

$SPX - Weekly - Rounded Trajectory!

The Weekly chart for SPX has formed a well defined Rounded Trajectory.  Whereas SPX found support at the red 200 weekly moving average earlier this year, SPX is now approaching resistance from the blue 50 weekly moving average which is also declining sharply and thus pressuring to the downside.

It seems unlikely that SPX will be able to muster the velocity needed to break free from the gravitational pull that has been pulling it downwards.

The most probable trajectory is as shown.  While there is minor upside potential short term, a test of the red 200 weekly moving average is quite likely in the months ahead.  

Weekly Chart

XIV - Broadening Formation Identified

A broadening formation has been identified for XIV.  Price is nearing the upper boundary of the pattern. 

March looks interesting to watch for a potential reversal.  A reversal could be quite negative, and eventually the lower white line is a target.

60min Chart

Broadening Formation:

$SPX - Target Reached - Important Inflection Point - Next Targets!

SPX has reached the minimum target of 1975, and closed at fork resistance.  Although it is possible that SPX overshoots, this is an important inflection point.

The turn date for SPX was due February 26th, and so there is little time left for SPX to form a high.  The next turn date is March 14th. 

Oil and SPX remain highly correlated which raises the probability for Oil to capitulate, and bottom out in the next several months ahead.

60min Chart

UVXY declined as expected from midfork resistance and is near lower fork support.  UVXY has formed a clearly rising trend, and may have several months of substantial upside ahead according to the model.

60min Chart

The behaviour of XIV continues to be consistent with the Hang Seng Crash of 1997.  XIV may have several months of significant downside ahead according to the model.

2 hour Chart

1997 Hang Seng Crash Model:

 

UVXY - Rejected at Resistance

UVXY popped to test midfork resistance and failed at resistance.  In the short term UVXY should decline to test the lower fork support.   

However, it remains that UVXY has clearly established a rising trend higher.

60min Chart