Pages

Thursday, April 7, 2016

$SPX - 2016 Cycle Model with Targets!

SPX has stalled due to the white resistance, and is simply going nowhere.  Price action is relatively quiet though, and in the short term it is unlikely to see much movement. 

Market conditions are steadily, but slowly deteriorating, and a pullback is coming according to the model. 

However, the reality is that the bears, as always, will need to have patience for the larger moves to develop.

Daily Chart

















2016 Crash Model:

















24 comments:

  1. April/May pullback, but the market is basically flat currently.

    ReplyDelete
  2. For UVXY $30 is a valid target although it may not be reached until May.

    I think we'll see a relatively quiet market, and so there should be plenty of time to take a bearish position as things progress this month.

    ReplyDelete
  3. SC, what's the level on the 1st low, 2025?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ideally yes, but we shall see.

      Delete
    2. SC, what's your next high date?

      Delete
  4. 2080 SPX was pretty close.

    Turn date is due tomorrow April 8th, and so a low is due any time now...

    SCMarch 19, 2016 at 7:41 AM

    "Currently SPX is close to the white trajectory line as shown on the chart above. The white line should act as a resistance and repel.

    So this is a very nice spot to look for a decline. If SPX were to escape this white line then it would be time to reconsider. It seems highly unlikely considering this white line has repelled for more than 2 years.

    There is a trendline up around 2080 SPX, and also a time stop can be kept in mind. The next turn date is April 8th. The bears want to see action to the downside by that time."

    ReplyDelete
  5. Above 2100 before end of May. 1970 floor for a long time to come.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SPX 2000 top 1552.87 on March 24...2007 top 1,576.09 on October 11…1500's are coming sooner than most believe...

      https://twitter.com/allerotrot/status/718192722226638849

      Delete
  6. SC, with today being the possible turn date, do you see today being the low and we pop higher next week? Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We could see a little lower first 2015 to 2025 early next week then pop.

      Delete
  7. SC so it will rally to 28th?

    ReplyDelete
  8. Your chart of UVXY on the Sat, April 2, 2016 blog indicates UVXY hitting $30 sometime in the month of April. How is UVXY going to hit $30 this month with the S&P500 rallying to its next high on April 28th?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UVXY did pop $5 over the last week on the initial move. However, the market is too slow and quiet for UVXY to reach the target in April.

      Therefore, the larger UVXY spike is due in May with SPX dropping to the purple arrow low.

      Basically there is little movement this month, sideways market.

      Delete
  9. The most significant low this month was April 8th, April 15th showing as a minor low.

    ReplyDelete
  10. SC, do you still see lower to 20115-25?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That level is where the support is, but it's just a quiet market, and should be through April.

      Delete
  11. SC, the market is getting the pop after early low this week as you mentioned, do you see this is the high before the drop to 1950 (purple arrow)? From the crash model, are you expecting just a retest of high on SPX, no higher high? Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, SPX has been moving consistent with the model. The model just shows a retest of the high though minor upside remains possible.

      I am not expecting much upside or downside from the current level until after late April. The main feature showing in the model now is a flat market for several weeks.

      May looks quite bearish, and I am expecting a drop to the purple arrow low.

      Delete
  12. How high can XIV go? Picked some up @ 23 but I would like to rotate into uvxy at some point. Thnks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Cycles are up until April 28th, but I will be looking to enter UVXY before that, probably in a week or so.

      XIV $26's, UVXY $15 to $16.

      Delete