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Wednesday, June 29, 2016

XIV - Short Term Outlook with Longer Term Target

XIV tested the main pink support and the reaction has been quite strong.  Therefore, it is likely that XIV has bottomed.

However, the next date for the high is coming due tomorrow, June 30th.  XIV is approaching major short term turquoise resistance just above.  A retest of the low is probable.

15min Chart

















XIV tested the main pink support.  Still trending up.

Daily Chart
















50 comments:

  1. The volatility is going to continue through July and into August.

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  2. SC, so SPX has likely already bottomed too and you don't see 1960? Thanks!

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    Replies
    1. SPX still looks weak. Much weaker than XIV. Similar to what happened in May.

      Delete
  3. How does this fit with your UVXY chart you forecasted? So now you dont believe that UVXY will not make it to 18s..thanks

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    Replies
    1. The first move on the UVXY was correct, but it failed at the brown support. It'll still pop well next, but to around $15.

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  4. The SPX chart with July targets still looks good. No changes. Everything going according to plan!

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  5. The lower pink support for UVXY is around $9.50.

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  6. We're close to the target of 2060 SPX outlined on the SPX analysis for this week.

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    Replies
    1. Yes high is due tomorrow June 30th. We have seen the explosive move up to 2,060.

      Next target 2,000 to 2,020 SPX. The Cycle drops into July 12.

      Delete
  7. FTSE erases Brexit crash in 72 hours. Bull. Good god...the strength.

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  8. Bottom in. Let's see how the retrace goes. 2080 to 2055.

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  9. XIV has reached the turquoise line today. Overthrow still possible. My original target of $26 might be close if it does overthrow.

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  10. Same situation for SPX. Overthrow possible, but hitting a lot of resistance at this level.

    VIX starting to see support.

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  11. The market has a memory.

    This was an elastic band move. The market stretched down and then back up again to where it should be in the Cycle at this time.

    The problem for the bulls is that the Cycle is topping. Volatility is leading this decline in SPX which is just beginning.

    Notice XIV is making a lower high than Monday's high while SPX is higher. Bearish...

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  12. Good SC.

    At what price (SPX) you are willing to admit that you are wrong?

    All the best

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  13. Big drop is coming Thursday Friday Monday minimum 2020

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    Replies
    1. Hi Louis, it would be interesting to see what happens next after an 80 point pump in futures in just 2 days!!

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    2. Dropping on Monday will be tough. It's my birthday and they always close the market on my birthday, but lookout Tuesday.

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  14. Friday will be bloody. Will open uvxy call tomorrow.

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    Replies
    1. you've been spot on thus far. Let's see if we get the bloodbath tomorrow.

      Delete
  15. I closed most of the longs yesterday, decent proft as I overweight longs in the 1990-2110 area. I also agree with your view, and will wait for a Higher Low to overweight longs once again. JUN 28, the 70 day cycle, was once again spot on.

    This is my current view (weekly, daily and 4h chart)
    http://tripstrading.com/2016/06/30/sp500-buy-lows-megaphone-patterns-next-cycle-dates/

    Enjoy the day all!

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  16. Louis Lombardi, you were initially right: 2100 is coming!

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    Replies
    1. True they say first intuition is best we all make some mistakes

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    2. I have a lot of respect for your bold calls and your honesty.

      What is the probability of a total reversal of Brexit losses on the SPX in your view?

      Best

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    3. your gonna have a pull back to 205 206 area the resume higher

      Delete
  17. 2127 soon. Then 2137. 2050 will hold. We have more up up....the Fed will reach 3% rate before Bull stops. Lots of time to pass yet. Jeremy Grantham thinks you can start getting nervous at about 2300.

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  18. High in the SPX due today June 30th. Next low is due July 12th.



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  19. WOW
    really SPX flying and UVXY making new lows , incredible markets... like nothing happened

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  20. Sc, 2080 already hit, do you think timing will change

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    Replies
    1. The next low is due July 12th.

      Delete
  21. there is a very good chance that we reach 2108 by tomm

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  22. FTSE, the center of Brexit, hits 52 week high today. Read that sentence again. Market paradigms are changing.

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  23. SC, is there a possibility we go to all time highs from here without revisiting spx 2000 or below ?

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    Replies
    1. Not now.

      The Cycle has turned down and so drop next into July 12. After that later in July there is a positive Cycle.

      Delete
  24. The problem with the market has nothing to do with brexit.

    It has everything to do with the fact it is once again testing the same horizontal resistance that it has bumped up against at 2100 for the last year and a half.

    The failure rate at the horizontal resistance in every test has been 100%.

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  25. Today's "breaking rumours" oops breaking "news":

    "Markets appear to be wagering a Brexit will either be benign or will not happen, BlackRock's Jeff Rosenberg said."

    SCJune 24, 2016 at 8:38 AM

    "This brexit is just a referendum. The government can choose to stay or leave as they please as I understand it. What always happens in these situations is that the rumours start to flow. Rumours of "remain in" could start next week..."

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  26. we will probally go up to 2125 then down to 1800 in july
    i am loading up on uvxy

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  27. regardless brother 2096 2100 or 2109 we are gonna hit 2050
    probally next week then bounce up to 2110
    then down hard into the end of month thats what i believe but that could change

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    Replies
    1. SPX 2040 minimum by July 12th. XIV $21 by July 12th.

      High for SPX due today, but with the holiday, the drop probably starts slowly then accelerates down into July 12th.

      July 12th is only 7 trading days!

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    2. SC, that translates for UXVY to around $12s?

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    3. Yes, chart with support resistance coming!

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  28. This is the most perfect V I've ever seen in the market. A straight line up. I'll feel blessed if we even see 2065 now :(

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  29. huge open interest 210 calls for this friday

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