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Monday, March 7, 2016

$SPX - Weekly - Rounded Trajectory!

The Weekly chart for SPX has formed a well defined Rounded Trajectory.  Whereas SPX found support at the red 200 weekly moving average earlier this year, SPX is now approaching resistance from the blue 50 weekly moving average which is also declining sharply and thus pressuring to the downside.

It seems unlikely that SPX will be able to muster the velocity needed to break free from the gravitational pull that has been pulling it downwards.

The most probable trajectory is as shown.  While there is minor upside potential short term, a test of the red 200 weekly moving average is quite likely in the months ahead.  

Weekly Chart
















81 comments:

  1. Based on your chart, I do not understand why you decided to exit your UVXY position? Pure risk management or you expect a higher high soon?

    Cheers

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    Replies
    1. There's several reasons, SPX has potential to rise closer to the red arrow and the 50ma weekly which today is 2032. So there's possible upside of 50 points or so.

      UVXY is time sensitive. The next turn date is March 14th.

      Oil has been heating up the last several days, and since SPX and Oil are highly correlated I don't think it makes sense to short SPX until this Oil rally is mature.

      Bottom line I think a better short entry is coming.

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  2. I understand SC. But you will admit that it is almost impossible to pick the peak precisely. And most market participants are always caught by surprise by the start of a sell-off.

    Based on your previous charts, although there is no bear market, it is likely that the SP500 revisits its 2016 lows in the next month or so. Hence, staying on the short side (with UVXY) tightly makes sense.

    Those are just my thoughts.

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  3. And importantly, you sold UVXY almost at its lowest level. If you expect the volatility trend to be upwards, there is a small probability that UVXY trades below ~25.

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  4. In my opinion with any leveraged etf it's better to lean on the cautious side, and cut a loss than let it grow. Of course it is not unnecessary to get the perfect entry, but quite often it takes 1 or 2 tries to get an optimal entry in these situations.

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  5. 1947 is the base for next two months. 2020 upside.

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  6. No bear market?...........what charts are some of you folks looking at.

    Markets are in a clearly defined bear market, currently we just in the "whoa, that was close stage" before the real plunge begins and gold is in the earlt stages of what will, IMO Be the biggest bull market in history.

    If any of you are are familiar with Jeff Kern and his gold stock system SKI, i have been a long term student, you will know what happened last week. A never before signal that portends financial chaos and a gold and silver rally the likes of which has never been seen.

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    1. bull the gold market is going to get slaped

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    2. Louis, you and the vast majority of the rest of the world's population are about to be amazed. Jeff Kern developed his mechanical system over 40 yeats ago.
      It is without a doubt the best system ever developed amd not by a small margin, by a country mile.
      Is it perfect?.....of course not, but also just gave a signal which is highly highly unlikely to be a false or failed signal.

      I have have followed and been a subscriber to Jeff for over 15 years. Get ready for a USD global financial collapse of epic proportions.

      Notice the reaction to Drahgi's latest attempt at re-flating and more impotantly gold's reaction?

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    3. just remember when market collapses every thing goes down with it i will maintain my 750 price target on gold

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  7. SC, what' your XIV target with SPX around 2032?

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  8. SPX is sliding, and may dip for a few more days. Then it should rise again. SPX on pace to peak late March in my opinion.

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  9. We are very close to the next leg down of what is already unfolding as the greatest financial collapse in centuries.

    The compkacency amongst you all is just astounding. European markets are about to collapse to new lows and as I have said constantly US markets are following the DAX much much lower.

    Look for substabtially lower lows in April before any signs of a bounce likely into mid-year followed by total chaos into October.

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  10. The next turn date is March 14th. It's likely a low so I'll be interested in positioning in XIV for the next leg up.

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    1. SC, what level/range of XIV will be of interest? thx

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    2. Next run should see around $24.

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  11. Hi SC,
    What would UVXY be at if XIV is at $24 and will you be buying UVXY at that time.
    Thanks again

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    Replies
    1. Low $20's for UVXY. Yes, that is the plan.

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  12. awesome that would be a great catch for UVXY
    Whats the target on the 1st leg up for UVXY ?

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  13. oh wow that's almost a 100% return, awesome :-)

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  14. Thanks again SC for all your hard work and analysis and keeping us all posted, Really appreciate your time,thoughts,efforts

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  15. SC, XIV low was $20.02, do you think that was it or $19s still possbile?

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  16. Looks like the dip is over.

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  17. XIV should peak $23 to $24 in about a week. I'm going to focus on shorting. Waiting for UVXY to decline.

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  18. SC, at what level (price) do you see the S&P topping out?

    Also is there a chance we just go to new highs without dipping into the 1800s?

    Thanks

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    Replies
    1. I'd estimate the red arrow target is around 2045 SPX give or take.

      There's no chance.

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  19. SC do you see the 14th the turn date as being the high now instead of a low?

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  20. Yes, the timing cycle was inverted in February. Now it has reverted back to normal. So it does show March 14th as the high.

    Next turn date is April 8th. It'll probably be a low, but in any case I think SPX 1930 to 1940 by that date.

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  21. SPX finding resistance right at the 200 dma. Support is around 2,000. The 50 weekly ma is 10 points higher.

    SPX might dip to test around 2,000 and then see a littler higher this week.

    It does look to be getting close to a high.

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  22. Notice also today that VIX is higher than Friday, and also the low early in March.

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  23. SC, is this a small dip for SPX and will head higher ?

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  24. Yes, SPX is getting ready to spike up.

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  25. thanks SC
    seems like OIL is getting hit yesterday/today any thoughts on that aswell. ?
    appreciate it

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    Replies
    1. Yes, Oil and SPX are still correlated. Oil is getting expensive.

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  26. SC, What do you think about GDX movement in terms of direction until next month..

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    1. The Cycle is still bullish for Gold for probably several more months. The pullbacks will likely be minor for Gold during this time frame.

      Silver is working towards my $17 target. The pullbacks in Silver are more pronounced than Gold which is interesting.

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  27. SPX reached the 50 weekly ma today!

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  28. Replies
    1. What's your exit target and timing? Thanks

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    2. Around $35 target for UVXY in 3 weeks. Early April.

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  29. hey SC , good catch , hope not to early though.
    where will UVXY go upto this time around
    thanks again

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    Replies
    1. The first target for UVXY is $35, and the second target is in the $80's. Potential for a big move here!

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  30. SC, what would be your 1st and 2nd targets on SPX?

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  31. Wow that's awesome
    great returns on investments , that's for sure
    Thanks again for all your time and analysis.

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  32. SPX first target 1930. Second target 1720 to 1780.

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  33. SC , seems like Markets are still heading higher , what are your thoughts , do you think you bought to earlier or just hard to pinpoint the low? Thanks again

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    Replies
    1. I knew it would be a spiky move that'll just collapse. Waterfall soon.

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  34. From 1930. Do u think it bounces to 2080

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    Replies
    1. 1930 SPX bounce to 2000, drop to 1700's.

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    2. SPX...2000 top was 1527.46 and 2007 top was 1565.15...during May 2016, SPX will be testing those levels...

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  35. i like your targets, but as for uvxy, might be too early

    should use vxx for potential targets and calculate it in uvxy, decay kills it

    im waiting for vxx at 19.1 ish, then ill buy uvxy

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  36. A little early but not too early. The waterfall to commence shortly!

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  37. Can't wait for this waterfall and the 2nd one :-)
    Chaching :-) 52 week low in place for UVXY

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  38. VIX

    http://mymarketgeometry.com/

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  39. Huston, we have a problem...
    OpEx...oil baron meeting...full moon...
    Maybe after that.

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  40. SC.
    Markets going higher , seems like UVXY was a early buy again
    your thoughts , thanks

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  41. there is also a possibility that we see 2080

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  42. XIV has reached $24.

    SCMarch 11, 2016 at 7:29 AM

    "XIV should peak $23 to $24 in about a week."

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  43. RSI at 70 today. XIV is extremely overbought.

    SCMarch 3, 2016 at 10:21 AM

    "For example RSI(14) closer to 70 ideally on the daily chart of XIV would be extremely overbought."

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  44. Is this sky high enough for you guys??

    SCFebruary 9, 2016 at 7:04 AM

    "SPX rally time! It's about to blow sky high. Buckle up!!"

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    Replies
    1. LOL.. that and then some.. I thought 1975 was not doable at the time.. and here we are sitting at 2050...

      Awsome call.. keep up the good work SC!

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  45. SC
    thought you weren't holding any XIV and were concentrating on UVXY
    Whats going on UVXY keeps going lower, your thoughts.

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  46. I had some remaining XIV from long ago. Now positioned in UVXY.

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  47. SPX is at 2050, and we should see 300 points down on this next move. Get ready, the waterfall is going to be spectacular!

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  48. Sounds exciting
    where do you see UVXY at during this waterfall.

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    Replies
    1. Asked & Answered... COME ON PEOPLE!

      SC March 16, 2016 at 4:07 PM

      The first target for UVXY is $35, and the second target is in the $80's. Potential for a big move here!

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  49. Opppsss Im sorry, yes SC did answer :-)
    Just wanted re-confirmation as if anything changed in his Analysis and Charts

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  50. SC what is your max upside limit if this up move decides to continue on next week?

    At what point is there a mental stop loss basically.. for your theorry of going down 300 points...

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    Replies
    1. Currently SPX is close to the white trajectory line as shown on the chart above. The white line should act as a resistance and repel.

      So this is a very nice spot to look for a decline. If SPX were to escape this white line then it would be time to reconsider. It seems highly unlikely considering this white line has repelled for more than 2 years.

      There is a trendline up around 2080 SPX, and also a time stop can be kept in mind. The next turn date is April 8th. The bears want to see action to the downside by that time.

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  51. Update and new charts posted!

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