Finding the edge in analyzing unique market Cycles.
Tom Mclellan""The panic over the surprise outcome in the British referendum over leaving the European Union brought about a fairly rare market event: a 10-1 down volume day.10-1 down volume days can also be precursors of deeper trouble, and more volatility a few weeks later. We saw a pair of these days back in July 2015, ahead of the bigger problems that hit the market in late August 2015. Those July 10-1 down volume days did correctly say that a short term bottom was at hand, but the recovery was short-lived. A similar message came in December 2015, when a 10-1 down volume day marked a meaningful short term bottom, but hinted at trouble that arrived in January 2016."
SC, with the SPX over 2080, do you see that is the higher high on your chart and we are on our way to 1980?
Not quite yet. Drop next for SPX into July 12th. A marginally higher high is still possible second half July. Then down to the target for the purple arrow low.
The weekly chart for SPX has been severely damaged, and will take several months of repair before the bull can run.
Yes 3 more months correction, but be serious.... damaged weekly chart. No such thing.Huge bullish candle and oscillators turned up RSI/Histogram. It is damaged for the bears and it will last a few weeks to "repair" it and turn it lower again.
The weekly chart for SPX looks identical to December 2015 just before the January plunge.
I hear this all the time and it is just wrong. There is nothing common and it does not look the same at all. The move from the August low:- is corrective- MA50 was resistance- MACD have risen to test the zero line from belowThe move from the February low:- is impulse- MA50 is support already 16 weeks above it- MACD is falling to test the zero line from aboveCompletely different structures, completely different moves.
I totally agree with you that there is nothing in common and yes they are different moves, but superficially it "looks" identical. People will look at it and say it's identical.Because it looks the same people may think SPX could drop 300 points as it did in January. It can't. The support in the 1900's is strong.
sc, when do you expect the plunge to start, starting sept to dec or something else
In the model the market is in the phase working on the decline to the purple arrow. Then the bull move to the second red arrow high. Best to take it one step at a time. Things are slowly progressing in the model.
Monthly candle totally identical to February bottom.
BOE said it will shower money if needed...China Japan and USA can shower more money on any given overnight= money goes to yield= money goes to equities. Money out of bonds will cause overdrive. But yes I won't deny temporary zig zags within 3% range until November.
Sc, it looks like 2nd top has already reached
I don't think so.
Not there yet, but slowly progressing...
So the high in SP500 was not yesterday SC. You were wrong. Are you adjusting your positioning?
Or maybe you were talking about a closing high, not an intraday high...
SC, Mr Lombardi, you're not seeing a higher high than the June high? Is it correct?
A marginal higher high is possible.
The Cycle high is due, short until July 12th.
In my view it's still wave i up of iii up of V up...invalid < 1990 but wave So we should focus on buying the Higher Lows. July 5 (high), 7 and 12 have my attention for the short term. Pay attention to the 35 and 70 day cycle people...FEb 10, apr20, jun 28...http://tripstrading.com/2016/06/30/sp500-wave-followed-ii/
2117 is max pain i will be adding to my shorts there
like sc said he said the low is july 12th give or take i belive we should be short here
XIV still hasn't reached Friday's high! It continues to show relative weakness versus SPX. Don't trust this rally in SPX!!
Wait for 1940 SPX to get bullish.
Hello SC. I've been creeping on your blog for a couple of weeks now, and this is my first post. Are you suggesting that you think we'll see 1940 in the SPX around July 12?
Steve, welcome!No, not that fast. The Cycle shows 3 legs down. The first leg down could occur around July 12th. 1840 or so on that first leg down. Bounce around there and down more later.
LOL! I would LOVE to see 1840. If that happened, I would fly you to anywehre you wanted to go and meet you for a beer if we saw 1840. As I just got very short! Because I am new to the blog... Can I ask you how or why you say get sgort and should bottom around 7/12? I'm just trying to get a feel or understand how/why you make your calls, which seem to be very accurate. Is your technique based squarely of of cycles?
Haha! I use a number of different Cycles and methods. The dates come from my SPX time Cycle which has been hitting very well.The June dates were very accurate. Check it out:SCJune 13, 2016 at 6:21 AM"Important Cycle low due today June 13. Bounce today/tomorrow. May see slightly lower on Wed for SPX than today. Next high due June 21, and higher highs after that June 30, and possibly extending into July."
Interesting also that the FTSE has reached a new high, but look at the pound. No bounce at all!
Silver and Gold still rising in safe haven trade.
"XIV still hasn't reached Fridays high"Monday's low was 23.9% below Friday's high. Since Monday's low it is up over 28%. I think that is more important than an arbitrary dollar figure. XIV has had an extremely strong up move and it may well have more legs in it yet
Yes, it is a strong move. Too much. Gapped up 4 days in a row, and looking nearly exhausted.I expect it to do well second half of July, just not until after July 12th.
This week a High for July 5, wave V-III-1 up, and then a Higher Low into July 12 is my base scenario. Enjoy your weekend! http://tripstrading.com/2016/07/02/sp500-follow-heart/
SC, what's your UVXY target by July 12th? How strong is the up cycles do you see after July 12th?
Dates to watch for UVXY July 12th target $12's then July 30th $5. I have dates for August and it looks extremely volatile.
Volatility to pop in mid-July. Then another larger volatility spike in August.
Silver has run up and hit the inflection point, and double resistance.
2060-80 most likely July.
SC- Move down in the SPX seems really strong. Possibility of 2040 may be too high of a target, especially when considering 7/12 is a week away. Take into account US treatury yields are at all time lows in a "flight to quality" any chance your model would suggest a lowere low the 2040? Depending on a EW bear count, I see 1890 very likely in the SPX. Your thoughts?
2040 is just a target for July 12th. Expect a bounce from July 12th to July 31, and then lower low in August. Ultimately SPX 1940 is a target for Aug/Sept low.
A lot a lot of people is looking at that spot. Looks like a tough support :)
you might have shorterm pop up to 2120 tomm then down hard
It does seem there is some support 2080. A few day bounce could be possible.Definitely softening though.
jujst bought gdx puts 28 strike jul 15 at .37 risk capital only
The S&P500 started the corrective wave right on Time, cycle date JUL 5, which is 7 days since the Low of JUN 28 (35, 70 and 140 day cycle). I think wave V-III-ii down is in progress, which should consist of an abc pattern, 2060-2090-2030 seems likely. Keep an eye on JUL 12 as next Cycle Date and a possible Higher Low > 1990. http://tripstrading.com/2016/07/06/sp500-3/Enjoy the day all!
gold in my opinion is set for a massive move down
i believe we rally to new highs
i wouldnt be suprised if we see 2132 after the 11th
This comment has been removed by the author.
2120 by tomm
exited uvxy at a loss in aftermarket I believe on july 25th there will be a reverse split on uvxy ttp://sixfigureinvesting.com/2014/01/uvxy-reverse-split/
Louis,gold and silver are above 3 monthly NBL's, first time since 2012 and its just getting started, sure they may hit it hard on NFP print friday...but that will be just a bump in the road to 1600...
I do not know what NBL is, but I know we are watching in slow motion the death of the 30-year bond bull market. In the next 1 year the yields will move higher. SP500 is correcting before the next leg up and it will be 20% higher in a year from now.So watch how in the next few months the money will move out of safety precious metals/bonds into risk assets.This bump will last much longer than you think.1600... highly doubt it. Do you see the gold chart the ending diagonal which begun at 1200? Do you know why they call it "ending"?
i believe there will be some sort of correction in metals we will see and the market by September could reach 2200 or better as for today into Friday we could easily see 2130 we will see
Krasi, Net buy line, Net sell line is NSL, you should learn how to use them, they are great for trading. I doubt you understand why gold is moving up so I wont try to educate you. Gold and silver will always be hit hard by the MM's, its there job to make you not like it...thus why this bull has a long way to go, your comment is proof of this. I will come back and post when it does or doesn;t happen, either I eat crow or enjoy you doing the same. Your diagonal is worthless compared to a monthly NBL...the gold and silver charts are as pretty as anyone could ever imagine....
Wow so superior NBL lines.... well I use EW,TA,cycles and I bet I will beat your NBL lines. "I doubt you understand why gold is moving up" - I do not care I watch charts. I do not care about the usual funnymental bla bla from gold bugs.By the way on my blog In December I posted that is time for a bottom for precious metals.So please not with this superior tone I am not some one from the sheeply.
To the point the bull market will continue to 2020 but not in a straight line.And it will not really take off as long as the USD and the stocks has not made their major tops. Learn from historical charts.
2112, 2127 in a couple of days. 2137 this month.
looks like some kind of top in gold for nowgdx looks like it is at a top i would be short here
Is the gold short long term or short term? What is the time table?
SC, do you still see SPX 2040 by 7/12?
Yes, perfect setup for a drop with the next Cycle low coming due next week.
I'm lookin short term any thing i do is a swing tradehowever always understand your risk tolerance and alwaysput risk capital to work
Interestingly, XIV has reached 50 weekly moving average resistance $27, which is pointing straight down.XIV also near 50 dma resistance $27's.Perfect setup for a drop.
i don't think we drop till next week
that's why i shedded uvxy ui will probally buy back we will see how low
UVXY saw the reaction from the pink support to the blue resistance. Now the undershoot for UVXY is approximately equal to the overshoot above the pink line in June.Target price and time has been met for UVXY. Let's see the pop!
if we don't hit 2120 by today it will be tomm
SPX did in fact bounce off 2,080. Bounce nearly over. 2,040 next week.SCJuly 5, 2016 at 11:32 AM"It does seem there is some support 2080. A few day bounce could be possible."
XIV may see $27's before it rolls over, but it's getting very close.
$21 target for XIV next week.
bro i have a lot of respect for you when it comes to uvxy and xiv i will probally buy back today or tomm
SC, do you still see approx $12.50s for UVXY by the 12th?thx
Still a valid target.
even with the split lurkin im gonna jump back in
So UVXY to move up more than $4 in 3 days?I hope you're right SC
we might not get up to 2120 we will see maybe 2115
looks like 2093 held tomm will be 2010 or higher
is the following statement no longer true:SCJune 29, 2016 at 7:24 AMYes high is due tomorrow June 30th. We have seen the explosive move up to 2,060.Next target 2,000 to 2,020 SPX. The Cycle drops into July 12.
Now you have to call your suspected decline to 2040 a crazy 'plunge' by July 12.
gap up just like i thought
It's still a weak market. Just testing the June high. There are two negative Cycles coming. It'll still drop next week.
Let's see how low it drops next week. The second half of July does look mildly positive for SPX though. Then another negative Cycle due July 31 to Aug 10th.
droping to 2060 next week i would imagine
Not surprising to see XIV in the $27's testing resistance.50 weekly moving average resistance $27, which is pointing straight down.XIV also near 50 dma resistance $27's. SCJuly 7, 2016 at 7:16 AM"XIV may see $27's before it rolls over, but it's getting very close."
market should hit 2122 then drop hard next week
How hard? 2060 isn't hard, it's just another "pull back"
just bought july 7,50 calls on uvxy expiration july 15 for .60cents risk capital only
bought 10,000 shares of uvxy aswell
i think we could fill 11.20 gap on uvxy
this looks like the top of any irregular bull flagmeasuring from 4.20 to today
we could go as low as 2020 maximum however i believe atleast 2060 coming
? This is a breakout. The opposite of what media and blogs anticipated. Shorts capitulate over 2127.
Be Careful July 7, 2016 at 4:40 AM2112, 2127 in a couple of days. 2137 this month.
i agree but we have to have a wave down first i believe we are down into tuesday and then up to 2132
some folks just can't be taught, so you get what we had here today....cool hand luke...good luck Krasi, maybe run a gold:spx daily, weekly, monthly and throw some sma's in there that you use and relook at what is going on.....anyone using elliot waves over last 5 years is broke....what is a gold bug anyway? is it like a lady bug but gold?
"anyone using elliot waves over last 5 years is broke...." - lame, veeery lame:) Some can count others not. I do not use only EW."maybe run a gold:spx" - I have not thought about that(sarcasm)No need to relook - the stocks and USD have one more leg higher and in the mean time precious metals will correct. Again look at historical charts.You said 1600 I say first correction. Now we wait and see what happens.
SC, not sure how big of drop we can get now by 7/12, do you think it may be a high instead of a low?
unless something highly dramatic happens I dont think we're going to drop 80 spx points to 2040 in 2 trading sessions... so my guess is cycle could have inverted and we might make a high on the 12th and drift lower from there.... ?
It still looks good for a drop next. SPX lurched back up into long-term resistance going back for the last year and a half. This resistance is strong. Volatility is likely to persist through August.
Why must there be volatility this august? any clue?
Charts and Cycles. Basically SPX is trading around long term resistance and has always seen volatility from this level.VIX back at long term support.Aside from that if you are wondering about news, well brexit, earnings, and the upcoming controversial election continue to weigh.
".....anyone using elliot waves over last 5 years is broke...."Very true words....EW is tough
Who is broke? - the perma bears counting their bias not the charts. The bulls are just fine made tons of money. When you can not understand EW do not use it plenty of other tools.I hear the same over and over EW,TA,cycles do not work... the last time was options trading does not work. And my answer will be always - No the tools are not stupid you are stupid because you can not use them.I know guys using EW making money.I know guys trading options making money.I know guys using cycles making money.I know guys losing money refusing to use simple technical analysis claiming charts mean nothing. Find the tool which fits to you, but do not claim that the other tools do not work because you just look stupid.
EW theory is always left up to interpretation. When your current count is wrong, you adjust degrees or change. EWI was calling for a bear market from 2009 all the way up to what 2013? Who knows. Their subscription base got hammered.
"EW theory is always left up to interpretation " - exactly. That is why I did not want to use EW until I have combined it with cycles, technical analysis and market breadth.Than there is no a lot of room for interpretation and everything looks completely different."EWI was calling for a bear market from 2009 all the way up to what 2013?" - what should I say... morons counting their bias and not the charts. Why should EWI be example for a problem with EW? Plenty of guys with bullish counts since 2009.
market should drop into tuesday im expecting 2060 to 2070 we will see
I feel sorry for your cycle SC. It clearly lacks of accuracy. SPX reached a fresh high as of July 11. VIX lower and lower. What did go wrong? Many thanks and all the best
The Cycle predicted a higher high June 30th. From the standpoint that the market was able to overcome most of the "brexit" decline and up into June 30th, I was pleased, However, it seems with the brexit, the market was just too weak to make a higher high by June 30th. SPX did see a high and drop 30 points from July 1 so there was still a reaction. SPX is slightly higher currently, but still a weak market. I think the negative cycle coming in August will be more pronounced.
Resistance? 2138 hit in premarket. Game, set, match. Be Careful July 7, 2016 at 4:40 AM2112, 2127 in a couple of days. 2137 this month.
New chart posted!