Pages

Thursday, August 11, 2016

$SPX - Heavy Resistance - Short Term Targets

Due to the heavy overhead resistance, SPX has struggled to gain since mid-July.  The overhead fork resistance has effectively limited the ability of SPX to advance.

Volatility is likely to increase in the months ahead.

60min Chart
















96 comments:

  1. Hi SC, I agree on the drop to 2140, maybe even 2110 (38.2%) but after that, I expect Higher Highs (and not a Lower Low) to finish the wedge up.
    The drop you mention, into OCT, what is it based on?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The longer term support is shown with the red horizontal line at 2,040 SPX. In my July analysis the Deja Vu Cycle model outlines the big picture moves with a drop to 2,040.

      We are entering a weak spot now, with October and November looking quite negative. After 2,040 the model turns positive.

      Delete
  2. UVXY breaking out. Some resistance around $25, heavy resistance around $30.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Replies
    1. Cement is too weak. could be concrete floor.

      Delete
  4. Huston, we have a problem...
    As previously guessed...UVXY will likely be a Strong Buy Buy Buy soon...but just not right now. Maybe by OpEx, give or take a day. But again, that's just a guess...

    ReplyDelete
  5. We are going up. Higher. No significant volatility in near future.

    ReplyDelete
  6. very interesting, 2190 or 2140?

    I will trade SPY after Monday.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Wait until after Cisco earnings on the 17th before trying shorts...

    As stated before, it took 2 years for the market to break out, it's not going to end in a low volume, low volatility summer...add in the need to keep the sheeple happy about their placebo vote.....

    ReplyDelete
  8. Fantástic very bull think.But...
    I am believe crash is hére.
    Bye Bye...

    ReplyDelete
  9. I believe Obama has told the Fed to keep the markets propped up until after the elections in order to get hillary elected. We all remember how bad it was for Republicans during the end of the Bush years when the market tanked. The dems won't let that happen again.

    ReplyDelete
  10. The Headline: UVXY is a STRONG BUY BUY BUY!!!
    (the fine print: wait until AFTER this week's OpEx BEFORE buying; individual results may vary)
    Just another guess...

    ReplyDelete
  11. im expecting 2160 to 2140 into wed

    ReplyDelete
  12. https://www.saltsupply.com/store/c1/Featured_Products.html

    ReplyDelete
  13. VIX up today. Usually a warning. Turn is near!

    ReplyDelete
  14. VIX up today. Usually a warning. Turn is near!

    ReplyDelete
  15. To buy or not to buy.
    Sp500 VIX up 7%...UVXY up 1%.
    So...a turn may be near, but what is the appeal of this UVXY again?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. pure manipulation we should drop into friday nothin big though maybe 2165

      Delete
  16. SPX, probably bounce into Monday turn date high due Aug 22nd. Then down to the turn date due Sept 8th.

    ReplyDelete
  17. OpEx could be the high of the week...there may even be a slightly higher high sometime next week...at which point UVXY may be a screaming BUY BUY BUY...but that's just another guess. What seems to have become far less of a guess, though, is that UVXY is indeed NOT a BUY, BUY, BUY right now...during OpEx week...as originally guessed.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Turn date due on Monday August 22nd. High probable. Then September 8th turn date.

    ReplyDelete
  19. looking for gap fill today at around 12 to 1 oclock at 2165 give or take

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not yet, early next week.

      Look for the bottom on 24th of Aug.

      Delete
  20. Conclusion: NOT to buy UVXY.
    Reason: SP500 VIX up 7%...barely UVXY up 3%.
    There are a ton of more profitable ways to gamble...and that's not a guess.

    ReplyDelete
  21. SC, what is your outlook on gold?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Gold may attempt a bounce short term towards $1400, but time is running out. The big picture is that a major high is due, with downside to $700. I'm not long, and looking for a short entry Sept/Oct.

      Delete
  22. lookinf for gap to be filled to downside spy

    ReplyDelete
  23. Mmm. SOXX index weekly RSI. Interesting. No weakness there.

    ReplyDelete
  24. 2198, 2208 next. Higher. 22
    Later vix to 10.88.
    We are going up. Zero resistance, investors chase, no rate hike.

    ReplyDelete
  25. uvxy broke support 19.55 probally go into 18.50 i will buy more there

    ReplyDelete
  26. i think the market up tomm 2200
    then down to 2164

    ReplyDelete
  27. HI LOUIS
    DITTO
    2212 is my target and 2164 would be just fine for me on the fade.
    I Just issued a sell signal with my group for 10am 2mrw, Thursday Aug25th
    & cover on 26th possibly at 2pm.
    I HAD previously projected an 11am PIVOT LOW for today, possibly 10 pts off the high and thats just abut what we got.

    ReplyDelete
  28. NOT GONNA MAKE IT to 2200- MY previous analysis to me group was 2196 which the spx was at 2149 in July- WE got 2193 on Aug15th and Aug23rd.
    AUG23rd was 49 Gann tr days from June14th at 2120- why it that important?
    JUNE14th was 1830 tr day from3/9/09- which is 610 FIBO x 3
    AND
    THUS, I am SERIOUSLY considering AUG23rd, 2016 as the END of the BULL
    MARKET RUN from 3/9/09
    I also posted a long graph showing 61 months from 2003 to 2007top
    and now 90 months from 3/9/09-
    Im targeting OCT3rd as the start of some kind of financial crisis that should signal the start of the next BIG BEAR LEG which could last about 3to 5 years.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. do you really believe the nonsense you are spewing?

      Delete
    2. Yes, he does...because he's been more right than wrong. Oh, and now that SP500 has turned negative...as Jay predicted...today would also likely be a good day to take any 'profit' made in UVXY...but maybe that's just a guess.

      Delete
  29. We have higher prices coming, into next year. Election years end Up or worse case Flat. Clinton is in. Spain economy is now stable (if that doesn't tell you something! Hint). Best Buy chain in the US beat expectations, that's a big hint too. Honestly, I would love to see a drop to 2099 like right now. Wishful thinking :( Also read Jim Paulsen and Jeremy Grantham ideas, 2250-2300 very near future. Most likely overshoot those prices. I am now open to big surprise shocks and rollbacks to as low as S&P 2035.

    ReplyDelete
  30. SOXX index just made new high. Absolutely no market weakness. Yellen has to give date for rate hike to stop this, otherwise 2200s today. 2170 could have been a big bottom for weeks. Incredible.

    ReplyDelete
  31. This is exactly what i was looking 4 2164 but came 2 days later

    ReplyDelete
  32. Well, hopefully all took 'profit' on UVXY...thanx Jay!

    ReplyDelete
  33. @ Louis, I think the 2200 will come later, not this week, first I would like to see wave D of the ABCDE wedge finish this week in the 2116-2145 area, scheduled for the 70 and 140 day cycle at SEP 3-7 and then wave E will form new Highs into the US elections and Cycle Date NOV 14.

    ReplyDelete
  34. HI Louis - YES, Im also expecting ONE MORE Attempt at spx 2200 next week.
    Fri was not the right day as prev noted above, but they can try again as noted VIA CYCLE timing & Jaywiz financial Resources as posted online. WHAT we have been getting since mid JULY is CHURNING at the HIGH WATER level. and TIME is RUNNING out on the 89 month bull Market.

    ReplyDelete
  35. Entering a seasonal weak period, would be careful going long or staying long. http://screencast.com/t/BERaVptA4n

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. NO correlation... why would you show that ?? A market coming out of WWII compared to a 7 year bull...

      Delete
  36. there is a possibility that we could jump 30 points above 2200
    by early sept

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It could be mildly positive here for 4-5 days.

      Delete
  37. Looking good! High for SPX came in on the 23rd. Next low due Sept 8th.

    SCAugust 18, 2016 at 12:14 PM

    "Turn date due on Monday August 22nd. High probable. Then September 8th turn date"

    ReplyDelete
  38. Consolidation, not much movement likely either way this week. Next week look more interesting. VIX could see 12 then 17.

    ReplyDelete
  39. SPX down into Sept 8, then up the remainder of September.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. if Sept. 8 is a low then it could be a final low for next months. I do not think so. let,s see where the market go without guess.

      Delete
  40. Louis when do you think gdx will hit 33

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. im looking for 30 to 33 by the 9th

      Delete
    2. gdx di go a little lower then i thought thou

      Delete
  41. Pullback just about done now, banks already on their way up in a strong manner. Rotation has begun...again. Financials and oil will bring S&P pretty high in a couple days.

    ReplyDelete
  42. Everybody's still just guessing. Perhaps we'll be lower into Friday's job announcement, then rally on ECB's announcement next week...maybe to a new ATH. Then again, that's just another guess. Either way, NOT buying UVXY any time soon as it's still consolidating for a big move...maybe by mid-Sep. Yes, just another guess.

    ReplyDelete
  43. SPX down 5 out 6 days since the turn date! A bounce here for a few days would be normal followed by further downside next week.

    SCAugust 18, 2016 at 12:14 PM

    "Turn date due on Monday August 22nd. High probable. Then September 8th turn date."

    ReplyDelete
  44. we should get up to 30 to 33 on gdx buy friday of next week

    ReplyDelete
  45. gdx should be over 28 today and next friday possibly 33

    ReplyDelete
  46. looking for 2187 possibly a lttle higher

    ReplyDelete
  47. VIX cooled off to 12 as expected, ready to spike to 17 next week.

    ReplyDelete
  48. If a close over 2184, we go much higher next week into 2200s.

    ReplyDelete
  49. This rally is going to be big, and it has begun. Be careful. No resistance ahead.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Often you're coorrect..and I agree about the mych higher part...but first the hand needs to lure in some more shorts..srt a lower low 2145 area and then wave e up into 2250...then a crash 2017 and then the massive re-allocation to private assets..just my opinion...enjoy the weekend.

      Delete
  50. VIX

    http://mymarketgeometry.com/

    ReplyDelete
  51. SP500 up...UVXY down.
    who knew...

    ReplyDelete
  52. possibility that gdx could tag 27.5 then up to 33

    ReplyDelete
  53. It's finally here...
    just a guess.

    ReplyDelete
  54. Ah. Your drop! Nice, but oversold already, need sideways yet again...or miraculous crash to ignore all technicals. I'm fine with either. Crash away.

    ReplyDelete
  55. Shorting beyond Monday (possibly Tuesday) is NOT recommended. Just a guess...but after all, it will be OpEx week. Either way, not going all-in long until then...and definitely not today.

    ReplyDelete
  56. Hey SC, would you buy XIV here ($37) given market should rebound from here as per your analysis? thx

    ReplyDelete
  57. Market obeys Cycle... Very nice!

    SCAugust 18, 2016 at 12:14 PM

    "Turn date due on Monday August 22nd. High probable. Then September 8th turn date."

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Where do you think market and XIV become interesting for a long position? thx.

      Delete
    2. Let's see how it looks later in the day. Getting interesting...

      Delete
  58. VIX spiking!

    SCSeptember 2, 2016 at 8:55 AM

    "VIX cooled off to 12 as expected, ready to spike to 17 next week."

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. IWM has broken the rising wedge it was in, whether it holds or not is the question. If it does there's a potential for a lot more selling. http://screencast.com/t/jlgo9xAKMAc

      Delete
  59. A little lower yet. 2140 SPX target outlined on the chart still looks about right. XIV is starting to look interesting, but also a little early.

    ReplyDelete
  60. The next three turn dates are.....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The market has spoken. It is clear what will happen into the election.....

      Delete