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Thursday, June 23, 2016

$SPX - 2016 Crash Model Update - Purple Arrow Low!

SPX completed the first red arrow high in the 2016 crash model.  Currently SPX is declining to form the purple arrow low.

Importantly, the model still shows a very strong bounce from the purple arrow low up to form the second red arrow high. 

The purple arrow low is likely to form in the 1,975 to 2,000 SPX area.  The second red arrow high is due in the August/September time frame.

Daily Chart

















2016 Crash Model:
















Before:  May 27, 2016

Daily Chart

















54 comments:

  1. The market has declined suddenly to the purple arrow low in the model. However, importantly, the model shows a sharp bounce ahead.

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  2. A mini crash occurred, but the model shows SPX bouncing back to the horizontal resistance!

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  3. The SPX Cycle hits a low today, and is up into next Thursday June 30th.

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    1. SC what level SPX do you see next Thursday? Thx

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    2. Resistance is around 2065 SPX, and should bounce to around that level next week. Then drop to test support 1975 SPX.

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  4. Will be looking to take profit today and reshort around June 30th.

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  5. The futures bounced quite a bit overnight. Thus there is room for lower. We should see 1975 SPX or close to it in July for the purple arrow low.

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  6. Should see UVXY dip next week as Cycles are up from a low due today. Support building in the $13's for UVXY.

    $23 is a target for July.

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  7. I am surprised as I didn't expect a big move overnight to start the move down to the purple arrow low.

    The lesson is that it's important to see what happens on the turn dates. The Cycle showed a high on June 21 and a low today.

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    1. Of course the brexit is not the end of the world. The market has been under stress and needed an excuse, a scapegoat, and it got it.

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  8. If you look closely at the decline to the purple arrow, there are 5 waves down. I see 3 waves in the futures. So that puts us in wave 4 up with wave 5 down to follow.

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  9. I'll be looking to exit UVXY today $15's and wait to reenter UVXY next week around $12 to $13.

    I'm not going to touch XIV until July, when UVXY should test the $20 to $23 area.

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  10. It's all about guessing. Some are better at guessing than others, and they offer educated guesses...while others offer some guesses that are clearly nothing more than a guess...and then, some others would simply be better off leaving all the guessing to all the others...educated or not. So...with a 4 July major Bradley date on the way...and a worldwide shakedown currently underway...can you guess what's likely next? SC seems to have a pretty good handle on it...Be Careful...not so much...but that's just a guess, too. Invest at your own risk...

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  11. I'm not surprised I predicted to move down I said it the question is do we go out next week like I think we're going to we will see I really appreciate your hard work

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    1. I Believe by Tuesday we had 2100 on the S&P there are youth spikes going off on the charts I don't know if it gets to 2100 but it's going to go up

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  12. We finally have a fun and interesting market! Frankly it has been boring for quite some time.

    It's tough to harvest all movement in a fast paced market. As a goal aim to catch 60 to 70%.

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    1. SC where do you think 's and p will be bt June 30 my indicators say 2100 how about yours
      Than brother

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    2. There is a bounce developing, but it seems to me we may need to churn first.

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  13. Meh. Market doesn't care about UK. Unremarkable pullback. Thin trading flash overnight. No biggie. Absurd media hype yet... again. Fear gone.

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  14. Just crazy swings, with market already at 2065 area, where do you see it now by next Thursday?

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    1. Should be some resistance at 2065, but since the Cycle is up, yes, it should be higher next week.

      Crunching some numbers.

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  15. It is true that what happens overnight in this type of situation is hype, exaggerated etc.

    Usually in these types of situations the futures low will be tested in the weeks to follow though, and that is likely this time. The Cycle is up until June 30th high, then we'll see some fireworks in July alright.

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  16. XIV starting to look interesting...

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    1. Your'e thinking probably after Europe close, market comes back a bit and then into next week?

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    2. Things do seem like they will settle down.

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  17. Replies
    1. What target are you looking for? Thanks!

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  18. wild swings not for the faint of heart

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  19. This brexit is just a referendum. The government can choose to stay or leave as they please as I understand it. What always happens in these situations is that the rumours start to flow. Rumours of "remain in" could start next week...

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    1. You're dreaming SC. Brexit does not means lower equities for longer, though. Do not try to justify your cycle by the fundamentals, it makes no sense.

      All the best, and well done for your work even though I feel you have not been able to grasp the real moves in the market.

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    2. The Cycles drive it, but it's fun to think about what the media will come up with to explain the market moves.

      Cheers!

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  20. very true indeed or a Black Monday

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  21. and it could goto your target of 1650 as per your chart above

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  22. UVXY resistance $15's, support $12.

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  23. SPX resistance 2080, support 2030.

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  24. This is going to be an exciting year for sure. Fantastic, all the drama to come!

    "Donald Trump hails "Brexit" vote, says Americans will face a similar opportunity in the fall"

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  25. All blogs now aligned with below 2000. Can't be that easy then :(

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  26. It won't be easy. It'll get there but there will be plenty of whipsaws to throw everyone off track.

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  27. SC, is it not possible we saw the 2nd red arrow and are making our way down to the 1700s?

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    1. It's a good point, and important to carefully consider all the possibilities, but I am confident that SPX is simply making the dip to the purple arrow.

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    2. Many charts coming to show why this must be the case. It ties together with Gold Cycle and VIX Cycle. Everything is coming together.

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  28. SPX very close to 2030 support today. 2080 next then 2000.

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  29. All indications are for another bloodbath on Monday, ala Aug 4, 2015. We will see!

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  30. Enjoy your analysis SC and others! I have no idea where markets will go Monday. SC? Your purple arrow is
    at 2000 but the trade was a bounce off 2030. As you explained, 2030 was support. SC and Louis, do you see 2000 or a dramatic recovery early next week. Thanks

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    1. Thank you very much!

      It was important to update this big picture view first. The model explains why the market is behaving as it is.

      I will be posting a chart shortly showing a more detailed, close up view of this decline to the purple arrow.

      Choppy week ahead but I don't see anything major happening quite yet. Things should settle down somewhat.

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  31. Hi SC,

    I think the same about a Low @ 1990-2030, this week (JUN 28 = 70 day cycle) would fit my cycles perfectly. Wave b of ii up was formed JUN 23. Now, wave c is in progress in my view and close to finishing, this week in my view.

    I do have a different view about the medium term, into end of year. I still expect Higher Highs, 2300+, based on repetitive Monthly Chart Patterns (2000 and 2007), Elliot Wave V up, a sovereign bond crash, bond money outflow into private assets (equities, gold and silver).

    http://tripstrading.com/2016/06/25/sp500-buy-lows-sell-rips/

    http://tripstrading.com/2016/06/22/weekend-update-cycles-jun-20-23-27-30-apple-lower-highs-lower-lows-putcall-extremes/

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  32. I think up big possibly 2120 by Thursday
    We will see anything could happen though

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