Thursday, March 29, 2012

$VIX - Volatile April Ahead

The VIX has started to heat up, and a large bullish wedge is in place.  It stopped shy of the 50 day moving average yesterday, hit the trendline, and likely will take a few days to consolidate before gapping over it.  I suspect, next week, there will likely be a "one day wonder" down for the VIX before it spikes again over the trendline. 

Several target zones have been outlined for the month of April.  Notice how the VIX spiked up at the alignment indicated by the arrow.  

Daily Chart

First and foremost, the low is in place with capitulation a few days ago.  A higher high from yesterday is anticipated during the next few days, then cool off again. 

Several targets are outlined for the month of April as indicated by the green lines.  

Daily Chart

Tuesday, March 27, 2012

Gold - Important Time Approaching

Gold bounced up from the orange fork, and is now finding some resistance.  Gold may be quite volatile in the short run as it consolidates between support and resistance. 

The yellow time cycle comes due on April 10th.  Gold may test the green supports around that time.

Patience is the key as it will be exciting for Gold from that point onwards.  


Sunday, March 25, 2012

$SPX - Week Ahead

SPX put in lower lows and lower highs last week.  There is resistance at the orange fork line just above, and price may slump from that level.       

The cycle analysis does look quite positive around March 29th though, then negative into early April. 

15min Chart

The VIX found support at the fork line which has been important in marking turns in the past.  As well, a wedge pattern is in place along with large scale divergence going back to October.

Daily Chart

Saturday, March 24, 2012

Silver - Update

Silver found an important support level last week, and bounced.  It could be ready to break, and test above the white trendline. 

However, some limited downside still may be likely.  The red-green support zone would be very attractive ($29.50-80 for the Silver futures).  The red support may be the maximum downside potential for Silver on a near term basis.

Once the low is in, Silver should rocket up to test $38-39 according to the model.  Gold is already showing relative strength compared to Silver by testing near the March 19th high on Friday.  The implication is that the downtrend for Gold/Silver is nearing completion.                   

60min Chart

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

$VIX - Moderate Pop Expected

As mentioned earlier, the cycle analysis is negative into the end of the week for SPX.  VIX can see a moderate pop during this period with a breakout of an inverse Head and Shoulders pattern.

SPX could decline into Friday or Monday.  

10min Chart

Downside on UVXY looks minimal with a decent move higher targeted short term.

30min Chart

Monday, March 19, 2012

SPY - Negative Time Cycle Due

A negative time cycle is due on March 20th.  The cycle analysis is also quite negative on the 20th, somewhat positive on the 21st, and then negative into the end of the week. 

The equal time and price boxes show a measured move is in place.  Interestingly, the time span of the box is the same as the negative time cycle (red).  As well, there are several resistances in terms of geometry.

Daily Chart

Thursday, March 15, 2012

$SPX - Target Reached - Dip Expected Next

The next timing cycle due is March 20th, and the cycle suggests a low.  Both Monday and especially Tuesday, March 20th, look negative in the cycle analysis. 

There are supports around 1372 SPX.  After that, a final spike with a slight higher high is anticipated.

60min Chart

The plan for the week (shown in yellow) was a decent estimate.  March 13th was forecast as a positive day.  The target was reached early though the timing of highs and lows worked well.

The following chart is updated from last Sunday:

15min Chart

This chart shows the maximum possible downside in the near term to test horizontal support.  If it does come down this much that would be around $29.50 for the Silver future.

A higher high at $38.50 for the Silver future is still targeted soon afterwards.

60min Chart

Silver is following the basic pattern from the symmetry outlined on Dec 31st, 2011.  Silver is nearing support with a higher high still expected to follow to point 6.

Chart from analysis December 31st, 2011:

Daily Chart

Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Gold - Upside Surprise

Gold has ample support at this level, and downside looks minimal.  On the surface the recent high appears similar to the September and November peaks.  However, this time, Gold can breakout of the channel and surprise on the upside.

The lower fork was tested today, and notice that there is an "air pocket" with little resistance above for Gold. 

Daily Chart

Sunday, March 11, 2012

$SPX - Approach to the Summit

The market should dip Monday, but as pointed out in the last short term update, March 13th looks positive in the cycle analysis.  SPX should generally grind higher this week according to my cycle work.

Around March 16th or 19th may be most likely for the summit to be reached.  March 20th, and the majority of that week looks very negative, therefore, the decline is expected to commence around that time with the 1326 area at least to be tested next.   

15min Chart

Saturday, March 10, 2012

$SPX - 2012 Crash Target 980 SPX

The market has persisted higher, and this has confirmed the presence of larger cycles involved.  Therefore, the 2012 target for SPX is lowered to 980.  The 2012 forecast is for a weaker year than the 2011 correction.  A 30% decline, or 415 SPX point decline, is indicated with measured price boxes.

Resistance for SPX going back to 2008 is in the 1395 area, and that is a reasonable estimate for the top of this rally. 


March:  Top anticipated 1395 area in roughly a week, then decline to 1326 to test the white trendline.
April:  Sharp decline to Point 1.
May:  Bounce to Point 2.    
June:  Point 3 - end of Crash #1 - support is in the SPX 1032 area.
July/August:  Bounce to point 4. 
September:  Banking crisis with Crash #2 - low for 2012 with 980 SPX target.

3day Chart

A closer look at the symmetry present and approximate levels and timelines.

Daily Chart

The lower highs for Financials were a warning in 2007, and they are warning again now with another lower high.

BAC lost approximately 60% in 2011 with SPX flat for 2011.  BAC is likely to bounce substantially higher, but is too weak to ultimately withstand the selloff outlined in SPX this year.  Unfortunately, BAC appears to be heading for crisis in 2012 perhaps around September.  There is hope that issues can be resolved in some manner with a reasonable outcome.

3day Chart

Thursday, March 8, 2012

Silver - Bottomed

It is likely that Silver has bottomed.  Silver probably will cool off today/tomorrow to build a base first, and then continue much higher next week.

The Silver futures could settle back to $33.30 or so first.  The target for the futures is $38 this month.

30min Chart

Tuesday, March 6, 2012

$SPX - Short Term Update

Previous analysis using time cycles outlined March 7th as a potential low +/- 1 day.  The market is into that timing band now.  There could still be potential downside during the next couple of days, but it is likely to be limited.  Several supports rest just below.

The cycle analysis turns positive late this week, and is quite positive next week centered around March 13th.  This may be a lower high with another decline to follow.

60min Chart

Sunday, March 4, 2012

Silver - Large "M" Pattern Still Bullish

On September 24th, 2011 as shown in the last chart, an "M" shaped bounce was indicated due to the analysis of a large scale Silver price pattern.  Then, on October 30th, the first high of the large scale "M" pattern was called at the orange trendline as expected in the September 24th analysis.

October 30th analysis:

"For Silver a dip to test near the midfork this week is the plan. A rounded top in a tight sideways range should follow after that dip. Once the rounded top is complete, a decline to test the September low is anticipated."

Silver topped out at the orange trendline, and then declined to test the "September low" as expected in the October 30th analysis.  Remember that the September 25th low for the Silver futures was much lower than SLV traded during the day on September 26th.  Considering this, the "M" pattern has been quite exact in price. 

However, importantly, notice that the "M" pattern took longer to form in time than anticipated originally in the September analysis. 

In March, there should still be one final push above the orange trendline to complete the "M" pattern. 

Additional patterns and price targets for Silver will be updated later in March when the "M" is nearing completion.  Once the "M" completes, the large price pattern indicates a massive collapse in the Silver market.  I expect the Silver bear market that started in April 2011 to continue with a vengeance...    

Daily Chart

The following chart is from October 30th analysis:

60min Chart

The "M" pattern was shown on September 24th in accordance with my large scale price analysis for Silver.  The "M" did take longer to form than shown in September, yet the price action was accurate. 

This delay in timing is also why my analysis for SPX turned bearish prematurely.

The following chart is from September 24th, 2011 analysis:

Daily Chart

Saturday, March 3, 2012

SPY - Equal Time and Price Boxes

Equal time and price boxes show that the rally from October 2011 to the end of February 2012 is the same size as the rally from August 2010 to February 2011.  The equal time measurement in the box is also interesting.

According to time cycles, several important dates +/- 1 day to watch during the month are:

March 7th low
March 13th high
March 20th low

Green arrows mark exact geometry. The orange line is a downside target for the month of March, and is around 1307 SPX March 20th.

Daily Chart