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Saturday, May 28, 2016

$SPX - Horizontal Ceiling - 2016 Cycle!

SPX pulled back in May, and is currently near major resistance once again.  Upside is capped by the horizontal resistance that extends back more than a year.

The horizontal white resistance is likely to be tested in June with a high forecast June 17th.  July looks particularly negative.

Daily Chart


















2016 Crash Model:















XIV consolidated during the month of May, and has cleared double resistance.  XIV should see a pullback this week, but further upside is likely in June as it works it's way towards upper fork resistance. 

The larger, longer term trend remains down!

Daily Chart
















90 comments:

  1. What is your uvxy target for next week and the purple arrow low?
    Thanks, SC

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It should pop this week. $12 or so. I will be looking to exit soon. Probably see $6 or $7 in June and spike to $11 for the purple arrow.

      Delete
    2. Are you looking to trade XIV after the UVXY exit?

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  2. Well, you sure blew it in May... no UVXY 23-25, no SPX 2000. What do you think happened?
    I think this market is ready to fall, maybe not tomorrow or next week, but soon.

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  3. So July is only drop for the purple arrow, then you see big bounce up again after that? When do you see the 2nd red arrow reached?

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    Replies
    1. Yes, it's a slow market. From mid June high Cycles then decline. July looks quite negative, but not expecting much action in June other than testing the major horizontal resistance.

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  4. For UVXY not going to bother with price stop, but for a time stop should pop by or around June 2nd.

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  5. The problem for UVXY is that while July looks quite bearish for SPX, and the upside is upside is capped by major resistnce, June looks quite and flat. So will look to exit soon and reenter again in June to hold for July.

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  6. Notice both SPX and VIX up today. Usually the market drops within days.

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  7. Hi SC,

    estimates below...

    Whats your exit price on UVXY ?
    will you be making profit from your previous buy ?
    what will your entry point be in June ?

    thanks again for all your info.

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    Replies
    1. Prices as in the above comments. Thank you.

      Delete
  8. ok great perfect i didnt see your responses earlier..
    WOW are you calling for UVXY to hit $6 - $7 in June , yiles scary thats for sure...

    Thanks again

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  9. Looks like the drop is over for SPX. Back to regular programing lol!

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  10. gold will run up 6 bucks from low and drop hard

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  11. SPX 2070 then 2120 (same as shown on chart).

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  12. Turn date hitting tomorrow June 2nd. Looks more like a high than a low, but highs and lows close together.

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  13. 2160...hm...monthly weekly bollinger. That could happen in June.

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  14. HI SC - havent posted here for quite a while- I AM EXPECTING A STRONG SELL OFF 2mrw JUNE3rd
    best wishes
    Jay

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  15. I think a sell off is coming, indeed. We have seen a 5 wave pattern up, now an abc corrective wave down next is expected. June 2-3 (14,28 and 42 day cycle as well as bradley model dates jun 1 and 4) seems correct for a High.
    http://tripstrading.com/2016/06/02/sp500-will-take-purple-pill/

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  16. Finally, the gap and go! Down that is to 2070 SPX. Low on Monday imo.

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  17. VIX gave a good signal, and we see the result.

    SCMay 31, 2016 at 6:54 AM

    "Notice both SPX and VIX up today. Usually the market drops within days."

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  18. Nice Guess, Jay Strauss--You're Hired!

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  19. Sold UVXY $10.35. Bought XIV at $32.40

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    Replies
    1. Hi SC, do you plan to hold XIV till 35/36 or take profits around 33.50? thx

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    2. I may exit XIV tomorrow/Wed $34ish as I expect a small dip, and then further upside to the target area late in June.

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  20. UVXY made some pops not much substance. Cycle low was due for SPX yesterday, didn't dip much though Dow was weaker.




    SCMay 31, 2016 at 6:20 AM

    "For UVXY not going to bother with price stop, but for a time stop should pop by or around June 2nd."

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  21. There will probably be a better dip for SPX next week, but probably rally for a few days next.

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    Replies
    1. u mean dip then rally?

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    2. Yes, dip next week, but overall cycles are up for several weeks in mid June.

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    3. u still see 2070 then 2120, or changed now?

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    4. 2115, then 2080. There will still be a dip next week. Market choppy for next week.

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  22. Something is very wrong. S&P should have at least filled 2076 gap if nothing else...on the jobs news. The computers will pile in and buy if it closes above 2100.

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  23. Short term high for SPX due tomorrow, June 7th, dip into June 13th low probable, then further upside into June 17 high, and June 30th high.

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  24. Sc, when you are expecting 1750.

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    Replies
    1. Currently SPX is forming the first red arrow high. July looks quite bearish down the the purple arrow low, but then the Cycle turns positive again in August with a rise showing to form the second arrow high.

      So that gives a good idea of the timeline. Best to take it one step at a time.

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  25. SPX has reached the short term target area. Dip into Monday looks likely 2075 SPX.

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    Replies
    1. After 2075, another bounce to the 1st red arrow? What SPX target you see? Thx!

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    2. Yes exactly. First red arrow 2150 around June 30th.

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  26. Replies
    1. SC, what's you exit target for UVXY? thx

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    2. UVXY $10's possibly $12.

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  27. SC, SPX overshoot your level , any thoughts...
    I know hard to call the high/low

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  28. SC .. you expect a test of 2000 on the spx in July?

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    Replies
    1. SPX 2075, then 2150, then 2000 first week August. July does look quite bearish.

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  29. there is a possibility that we could get slamed down in the spx by june 17

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  30. SPX trading around horizontal resistance on the chart. It sells off every time from this level since February 2015.

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  31. With European markets down over 1%, the market just doesn't want to go down. Do you still see SPX 2075 by Monday? Thanks!

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  32. we should get a pull back to 2094 or 2103

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  33. SPX starting to weaken. Still on track for the low on Monday June 13th.

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    Replies
    1. June 7th high was hit.

      SCJune 6, 2016 at 10:37 AM

      "Short term high for SPX due tomorrow, June 7th, dip into June 13th low probable, then further upside into June 17 high, and June 30th high."

      Delete
  34. Great call! Back to XIV Monday, how high do you think it can go for the June high?

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    Replies
    1. Thank you! Yes, will be looking at XIV on Monday for the run to $36.

      Starting Monday, the remainder of June looks quite positive.

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    2. So you looking for June 17 high, but 30th as the higher high?

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    3. For June the time Cycles has a cluster of highs June 17th, June 21, and June 30.

      The expectation is that SPX to rebound quickly stating Monday June 13th, and run up into June 17th. Then quiet and flat between June 21 and June 30.

      Delete
  35. Replies
    1. Decided to be conservative with UVXY. Waiting for XIV on Monday.

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    2. What level of XIV makes it interesting?

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  36. SC, Great calls, thank you! What do you think about Gold?

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  37. Gold might settle back short term, but still looks bullish and could see a higher high late this month or July.

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    Replies
    1. Gold/Silver are approaching an important high in the Cycle.

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  38. SC how confident are you we will see 2150 late june?

    Thanks

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    Replies
    1. Still looks like we should see around 2075 SPX due Monday.

      Then, yes I am very confident that we'll see 2150 or close to it. As far as timing late June possibly extending into July for timing.

      Delete
  39. UVXY has reached $12 target. Overshoot to $13's could be possible.

    SCJune 7, 2016 at 2:14 PM

    "UVXY $10's possibly $12."

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  40. Inversion, longer term cycles are down. No bounce expected

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  41. SC, do you still see UVXY $6-$7 late June?

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    Replies
    1. Yes still on track for $6. It might take longer possibly into july, but yes it'll get there.

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  42. SC, seems like UVXY overshoot and is overshooting your targets...
    your thoughts thank you so much

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  43. Important Cycle low due today June 13. Bounce today/tomorrow. May see slightly lower on Wed for SPX than today.

    Next high due June 21, and higher highs after that June 30, and possibly extending into July.

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    Replies
    1. SC, you looking to buy XIV today or wait until Wed?

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    2. XIV looks like it can bounce to $30 today/tomorrow, and might test $28's again Wed.

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    3. SC, are scaling back on your targets for XIV? $30 looks unlikely now, possibly $28 in a couple of days. thx

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    4. Still the same target of $36.

      Yes short term, for this week, around $28.

      Delete
  44. Hi SC, does you analysis change based on action today?

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    Replies
    1. No, still the same. SPX is close to the target. Both have been accurate in time and price.

      The Cycle low is due, and quite bullish.

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  45. Both Targets 2115, and now 2075 reached!

    SCJune 7, 2016 at 6:34 AM

    "SPX has reached the short term target area. Dip into Monday looks likely 2075 SPX."

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  46. SC , we missed a nice run on UVXY it bypassed your $10 - $12 target,,, any thoughts on your early sell @ $11.25 and whats ahead.

    Thank-you again

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    Replies
    1. XIV undercut the pink support and hit the turquoise support. The move for UVXY was exaggerated.

      For SPX the exact target and timing was reached this morning.

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    2. Do you still see a dip tomorrow?

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  47. spx will movedown into june 17th and then a large raly into july 5th looks like it could happen

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  48. Imo the lows are in place now. Bounce for a few days, though we may retest this level later this week.

    Overall Cycles are up into the next highs June 21st and June 30th. The surprises will come on the upside.

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