Wednesday, July 3, 2019

SVXY - Leading lower

SVXY has retested the April high yet it has no strength to test the September 2018 high.

It is clear that SVXY is leading lower.  SVXY is close to the important blue line resistance, and sideways price action is likely to mark this high.  Resistance is just above with a confluence of support showing at $46 later this year.


Sunday, June 30, 2019

UVXY - Almost Ready - Low Due in July!

UVXY has been consolidating for another spike up, and a low is due in July.

The descending triangle broke down with a calculated UVXY target of $27.  UVXY is almost ready with a low forming in the weeks ahead.

VIX is likely to retest it's December high by the September/October timeframe.


Thursday, June 27, 2019

Bitcoin - Sudden Drop Next

Bitcoin analysis posted July 16th, 2018 proved to be accurate, with the bottom forming in December, and Bitcoin hitting the 14,000 target yesterday.

A sudden drop is coming next.  Bitcoin is likely to drop to the 8,000 level which has become strong support.


Bitcoin:  July 16, 2018 Analysis:


Wednesday, June 26, 2019

$VIX - Wedge - Short Term Targets

Interestingly VIX touched the nose of it's symmetrical triangle yesterday.

It appears that a wedge is forming.  The trendline is just a touch lower.  A period of high volatility is due to commence starting from July and into the Fall months.


Tuesday, June 25, 2019

Gold - Fake Breakout!

Gold traders are excited about a breakout, but we can see clearly that Gold is approaching strong resistance and the dominant trend remains down.

Gold has been down off the major high in 2011 for eight years so far with the Gold bear market to continue.


Tuesday, June 18, 2019

SVXY - Right Shoulder Forms

SVXY continues to have difficulty and is showing relative weakness compared to SPX.  At best, SVXY  may attempt to challenge the white downtrend line from September.

The Head and Shoulders is intact and the Right Shoulder is nearing completion.

Daily Chart

Friday, June 14, 2019

$SPX - Selloff Next!

SPX has formed a tight range, and volatility is subsiding which indicates that a June selloff is likely to occur next.

The white line may be tested next week before the selloff begins.

Daily Chart

Thursday, June 13, 2019

$VIX - Testing Trendline

VIX is very close to testing it's trendline and has been coiling for several months.  Watch for the reaction here and selloff for SPX.    


Tuesday, June 11, 2019

UVXY - Descending Triangle

UVXY has formed a descending triangle pattern with a test of the lower boundary today.  It may spend some time filling out the triangle next.

Eventually it may bust the triangle with a dip below, but for now it has been finding support within the pattern.


Thursday, June 6, 2019

$SPX - Short Term Outlook

SPX may have a little upside yet, but this rally has been a bit much and a bit fast.

Any further upside and SPX probably dips as shown below.  It may then be in a holding pattern until the second half of June.  Another rally in later June and into July 4th most likely next.


Wednesday, June 5, 2019

SVXY - Update

After five down weeks, SVXY was due for a bounce.  SVXY has consistently found support at the neckline and blue mid support.

Some up weeks next are in order.


Friday, May 24, 2019

UVXY - Triangle Symmetry

UVXY has been cooling off, and may be getting ready to spike soon.  Price should settle back some more though as the timing matures.  Maybe a week to go which coincides with month-end.

Month-end low with potential spike up thereafter.


Wednesday, May 22, 2019

Bitcoin - Resistance Reached

Bitcoin melted up through the midpoint, and has reached the upper resistance.  It will probably settle back next.

An overthrow of resistance is quite possible as shown, but the resistance is strong enough that the price is likely to decline for the next three months.


Tuesday, May 21, 2019

SPX - 2019 Model - Targets and Timing

SPX continues to see failed rally attempts as it struggles to try and recover losses.  The price action appears strikingly similar to 2013, and that period provides a good model for this decline.

It is probable that this selloff is in the early stages, and the model shows the heaviest selling ahead.

3day chart

SPX 2013 selloff:

The longer term view also looks comparable, and the model predicted the drop in 2018 also as shown on the charts below.

3day Chart

SPX 2013 Comparison:

Friday, May 17, 2019

SVXY - Large Head and Shoulders Formation

SVXY continues to be extremely weak.  The rally failed at the timing predicted with the white lines.

A large head and shoulders pattern has formed.  After completing the head, SVXY bounced at the double support with neckline and middle support as shown.

The Right shoulder is underway...


Before: April 12, 2019 analysis


Friday, April 12, 2019

SVXY - Resistance/Support Levels Identified

Once SVXY cleared the recent high, the likelihood is that it is running to test the previous peak.

Overall a trend sideways has established.  Resistance and support levels are shown.  Notice that relative to SPX, SVXY is considerably weaker on this run.    


Wednesday, April 3, 2019

Bitcoin - Approaching Important High

In January 2019 analysis bitcoin was identified as likely to rise to 5,500.  That move is underway.  Once bitcoin broke out above the white trendline, the price spiked.

Bitcoin is approaching double resistance with the red horizontal above.  Once the price objective is reached, bitcoin is set for another fall with the same size as the November decline.  The measured decline with price target is shown.



January 23, 2019 analysis: 

"Bitcoin is likely to be consolidating for a pop next.  Price has been holding in a tight range which typically occurs just before a stronger move.

A move up to test the red horizontal next is anticipated."


Friday, March 29, 2019

SVXY - Before/After - Bearish Move Ahead!

Momentum has been lost, and SVXY is continuing to struggle at the 200 daily and weekly 50 confluence of moving averages.  Most probable a head and shoulders topping pattern is forming.

The left shoulder and head are complete.  The right shoulder is forming.    



Tuesday, March 12, 2019

SVXY - Head and Shoulders!

SVXY is struggling at the 200 daily and weekly 50 confluence of moving averages.  Most probable a head and shoulders topping pattern is forming.

The left shoulder is complete with the head forming now.    


UVXY testing September low, expect a strong reaction...


Sunday, March 10, 2019

$SPX - Pullback Timing and Target

SPX hit resistance and dropped.  With SPX now trading at a support level a bounce soon would be normal.

Attempts to rally are likely to fail, and the pullback continue into April.  


Friday, February 15, 2019

UVXY - VIX at trendline!

UVXY has cooled off from the December target.

Price looks attractive for a pop with VIX at trendline support and SPX approaching overbought.  UVXY pop into month-end probable.

Daily Chart

VIX at trendline, ready to pop!

Daily Chart

Monday, February 11, 2019

SVXY = Drop into Month-End

SVXY is finding a little support at the midfork, but a drop looks likely into month-end February.

As is typical in a V-bottom the fast gains come early, and then slow.  The rally is probably approximately two thirds complete with one third left in price.  However, in time the rally may be only halfway.

Daily Chart

Sunday, January 27, 2019

SPX - Trendline Reached - What's Next?

SPX has reached the trendline from October.  An overthrow of the white trendline is probable.

In the short term a rocky road is ahead for a few weeks.  With the trendline above, SPX is susceptible to a significant decline in the short term.


Wednesday, January 23, 2019

Bitcoin - Ready to Pop

Bitcoin is likely to be consolidating for a pop next.  Price has been holding in a tight range which typically occurs just before a stronger move.

A move up to test the red horizontal next is anticipated.


Friday, January 11, 2019

$SPX - Selloff Imminent

SPX hit horizontal resistance, and the SPX model is showing a deep red weekly bar next.

Next week, SPX is on pace to lose the last two weeks of gains with an selloff.  SPX support is located as shown.

60min Chart