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Tuesday, March 29, 2016

$SPX/VIX - Important Trendlines - 5th Wave

SPX made a dip off the white "trajectory" resistance.  It now appears to be making the 5th wave push.  The red trendline is just above in the case that it attempts to overshoot the white resistance. 

It is a similar situation as the runup in October 2015, and another failure would likely result in a significant April plunge.

It is reminiscent of 2008 - though not as severe a downtrend this time around.  In 2008, the market plunged May into November - note also an election year!

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VIX is nearing the long term trendline from July 2014.

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16 comments:

  1. vix is going to 12 i woukldnt be a bit suprised to see 2094 in s and p;

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  2. SC, do you see this as the breakout of the "trajectory" resistance, and still going higher to the red line resistance? Do you think we may top with the job number this Friday?

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    1. This rally is looking shaky, very close to a high. It'll probably come close to the red line but might not touch it.

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  3. Replies
    1. Yes, that and lower. We should undercut the lower white trendline which continues to decline.

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    2. What is your Vix target for upcoming decline in SPX? Is it higher than white arrow?

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    3. According to the VIX Cycle, ultimately the VIX target is the second white arrow which is 50's.

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    4. VIX should reach the same level as the first white arrow.

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    5. SC, what should be the entering point into UVXY... As earlier I mentioned SPX turning point is at or around 2065.. Just want to reaffirm!

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  4. Are you still waiting for UVXY?? When do you think it will be ready, next week?

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    Replies
    1. It's getting very close to a turn. See the new charts!

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  5. Thats a major runup thats for sure... :-)

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  6. SC, How does the GDX looks like few months ahead..?

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    Replies
    1. The Cycle for Silver and Gold is still very positive for months through the summer.

      Gold has been consolidating for the next run up over $1300.

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