Pages

Thursday, February 15, 2018

SVXY - Initiating Coverage

As expected the parabolic rise in XIV identified early in 2017 collapsed with a bottomless decline.  The fund will be delisted on February 20, 2018.  The END.

Similarly, SVXY has fallen from grace.  SVXY has backtested fork support exactly.  Longterm trendline resistance is located at approximately $19.  

Weekly Chart















Thursday, February 8, 2018

$SPX - Rollercoaster Ride to Continue - Massive Rally Approaching

SPX plunged off major resistance this week.  However, the channel is intact, and still mildly bullish.  A new slightly higher high is likely to materialize according to the model.  

The model shows that the topping process will be characterized by whipsaws and chop.   

Daily Chart















Wednesday, February 7, 2018

UVXY - Measured Move Achieved - Volatility to Continue!

The measured move targeted in January 9th analysis has been achieved.  Price touched the orange fork resistance exactly and was rejected.

The markets have entered the whipsaw phase. 

UVXY should decline next week into Friday, and spike again to test the orange resistance later this month.  Volatility to continue, and increase in the following months.

2day Chart
















Before:

January 9th, 2018 analysis:

"Not much room for downside on this chart for UVXY.  Price slowly grinding along support with time.  Spike up likely within a few weeks."

2day Chart















Thursday, February 1, 2018

XIV - Decline has Commenced - Update

XIV plunged and came close to the initial downside target, and has bounced back to the orange trendline. 

Notice that XIV bounced at the blue trendline from August.  XIV is extremely weak and the blue trendline will not hold.   

The orange line may provide resistance or XIV may be able to overshoot it.  In any case the largest plunge is yet to come... 

2day Chart

















Before:


















This model shows similarity to XIV.  Notice the sudden drop with no warning, and continuation lower:
















Tuesday, January 9, 2018

XIV - Reversion to the Mean

Mean reversion is the theory suggesting that prices and returns eventually move back toward the mean or average.

XIV has overheated and a reversion to the mean is likely in the months ahead. 

When prices become this stretched from the normal, the move tends to be quite violent with a panic decline.

2day Chart
















This model shows similarity to XIV.  Notice the sudden drop with no warning, and continuation lower:
















Not much room for downside on this chart for UVXY.  Price slowly grinding along support with time.  Spike up likely within a few weeks.

2day Chart















Tuesday, December 26, 2017

Gold - Bitcoin Signals Big Trouble for Gold

Bitcoin spells big trouble ahead for Gold.  The headlines are everywhere "Bitcoin - the new digital Gold".

Of course Bitcoin will not replace Gold.  Gold has the most history of any asset.  However, Gold is out of favour, and as Bitcoin builds momentum in a few years time people may actually believe that Bitcoin has replaced Gold!

Gold has been forming a classic Bear Flag over the last two years, and it is nearly complete.  The large size of the flag and measured moves are indicative of a large leg down coming in this bear market. 

Weekly Chart

Monday, November 20, 2017

XIV - Parabolic Move Ending at Resistance!

The parabolic move for XIV is almost over.  Price is reaching into overthrow territory.  It may become grossly overbought by reaching the orange trendline before turning down.

The "Trump trade" is coming to it's end.  The parabola, of course, will end very badly. 

Daily Chart