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Monday, November 20, 2017

XIV - Parabolic Move Ending at Resistance!

The parabolic move for XIV is almost over.  Price is reaching into overthrow territory.  It may become grossly overbought by reaching the orange trendline before turning down.

The "Trump trade" is coming to it's end.  The parabola, of course, will end very badly. 

Daily Chart

Wednesday, November 15, 2017

UVXY - Short Term Support and Resistance

UVXY gapped up above the blue resistance, and is currently trading within the fairly aggressive turquoise fork.  Price should transition into the orange fork with a more gradual and realistic pathway going forward.

It is unlikely that UVXY has bottomed, but a stronger bid is to be expected short term.    

30min Chart

Monday, November 6, 2017

UVXY - Building Strong Base

Momentum for XIV is dissipating by the week, and while XIV struggles, UVXY is forming a strong base. 

A selloff for SPX into January 2018 is anticipated. 

60min Chart
 

Tuesday, October 24, 2017

$SPX - Bull Market from 2009 has Terminated!!!

Cycles show that the Bull Market for SPX since 2009 has terminated at resistance.  Price has been grinding along resistance, but failed yesterday with a key reversal.

A lower low is to be expected in the months ahead for SPX to start. 

The model shows that the topping process will be characterized by whipsaws and chop.  The topping process is shown forming as a double top. 

Daily Chart
















SPX - 2017 Top Detailed Model:















Friday, October 6, 2017

XIV - Parabolic Trump Trade Coming to an End!!

As predicted by the model, XIV went parabolic this year.  Price has achieved the minimum parabolic target, and is reaching into overthrow territory. 

The "Trump trade" is coming to it's end.

It is early, and the overthrow will take time to play out.  The parabola, of course, will end very badly.  Complacency is extreme, and that is foretelling of a massive drop ahead during the next 1 year timeframe.

Long term support for XIV is at $30.

4day Chart
 
Before:

March 3, 2017:

"The movement in volatility is unprecedented.  XIV has broken above channel resistance, and is configuring into a parabolic melt up. 

Complacency is going parabolic which ultimately is extremely bearish for the S&P 500."


3day Chart
















Parabolic XIV 2017 Model:
















Wednesday, September 20, 2017

Silver - Update - Bear Market Continuing

Silver has declined for more than 1 year after reaching the Cycle high identified in the Summer of 2016.  Silver has been down for more than 6 years, and is the weakest market on the board.

Silver has struggled at horizontal resistance, but may attempt to test the 2016 high with the bear market to resume thereafter.  There is no sign of a bottom.  Silver will take years to finally reach the bottom.  

Weekly Chart
















Before:

June 25, 2016:

"Silver formed the double bottom blue arrow lows late last year as anticipated in the Cycle.  The result was a significant bounce. 

Silver is approaching a critical high in the Cycle.  It may seem tempting to view Gold and Silver as a safe haven with turmoil in the market. 

Any safe haven behavior is likely short lived according to the Cycle with a relentless decline directly ahead."


3-day Chart
 
Silver Bear Market Cycle:



















Sunday, September 17, 2017

XIV - Before/After - Once Again Approaching Resistance

XIV is approaching resistance with long term resistance represented by the white line.  Blue resistance is also above. 

A moderate decline is ahead.  Mid-October into November may be the weakest period.

Daily Chart
















Before:

August 11, 2017:

"XIV has reached the targets set out in July analysis.  A low should be near with a large bounce ahead into September.

The orange channel is clearly broken, but overall the XIV chart is still quite strong."


Daily Chart