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Thursday, April 21, 2016

$SPX - Horizontal Resistance

SPX has effectively reached horizontal resistance for the third time over the last one year period. 

Therefore, a pullback is likely to materialize.  May looks bearish.

Daily Chart


















2-hour Chart

















Wednesday, April 13, 2016

UVXY - Geometry - Levels to Watch

UVXY is breaking below support.  Therefore, short term downside is likely in the month of April.  Notice that the downtrend for UVXY is quite shallow though.

The lower turquoise support will probably be tested.  Charts and Cycles suggest UVXY is setting up to form a low over the next 2 weeks and rise sharply in May.

60min Chart

Thursday, April 7, 2016

$SPX - 2016 Cycle Model with Targets!

SPX has stalled due to the white resistance, and is simply going nowhere.  Price action is relatively quiet though, and in the short term it is unlikely to see much movement. 

Market conditions are steadily, but slowly deteriorating, and a pullback is coming according to the model. 

However, the reality is that the bears, as always, will need to have patience for the larger moves to develop.

Daily Chart

















2016 Crash Model:

















Saturday, April 2, 2016

XIV/UVXY - Update - April Targets

XIV has reached double geometric resistance.  Movement in XIV has been defined exactly by the turquoise fork. 

Therefore, a drop is to be expected in April.

Daily Chart

















UVXY has been resisted by the blue midfork.  A wedge has formed, and an April spike up is anticipated with an April target of around $30 to $32. 

Daily Chart
















Tuesday, March 29, 2016

$SPX/VIX - Important Trendlines - 5th Wave

SPX made a dip off the white "trajectory" resistance.  It now appears to be making the 5th wave push.  The red trendline is just above in the case that it attempts to overshoot the white resistance. 

It is a similar situation as the runup in October 2015, and another failure would likely result in a significant April plunge.

It is reminiscent of 2008 - though not as severe a downtrend this time around.  In 2008, the market plunged May into November - note also an election year!

Daily

















VIX is nearing the long term trendline from July 2014.

Daily














Saturday, March 19, 2016

XIV/UVXY Targets - Cycle Update

It is probable that XIV is completing the blue arrow high as shown in the model.  Eventually XIV should test the lower white line, and so there is potential for a large decline ahead.

UVXY has a first target of $35 initially.  The second target suggested by the model is a minimum of $80, with potential for up to $120 as a maximum target.

The next turn date for the SPX timing Cycle is April 8th.  SPX should see a significant initial plunge by or around that date to 1930 to 1950.

2hour Chart


















Hang Seng 1997 Crash Model:




















UVXY short term target.  The first target is shown of a much larger move up!

2hour Chart

















Monday, March 7, 2016

$SPX - Weekly - Rounded Trajectory!

The Weekly chart for SPX has formed a well defined Rounded Trajectory.  Whereas SPX found support at the red 200 weekly moving average earlier this year, SPX is now approaching resistance from the blue 50 weekly moving average which is also declining sharply and thus pressuring to the downside.

It seems unlikely that SPX will be able to muster the velocity needed to break free from the gravitational pull that has been pulling it downwards.

The most probable trajectory is as shown.  While there is minor upside potential short term, a test of the red 200 weekly moving average is quite likely in the months ahead.  

Weekly Chart