$SPX - Cycle Shows Strong Rally

SPX plunged to the blue arrow low.  The Cycle target and timing proved to be very accurate. 

 

Next, a dip is likely to occur within the next few days.  However, overall the Cycle shows a strong rally to the pink arrow high.      

 

60min Chart

Before:

SPX Cycle:

 

 

$SPX - Another Plunge Coming

The Cycle for SPX showed a bounce coming into the Orange arrow Cycle high.  That has now occurred.  Last week saw the strongest 1-week bounce in the last 2 years!!  That is an impressive confirmation of the Cycle!

SPX has met the target for the Orange arrow high.  A small dip is probable soon even though little more than some bouncing around prior to year-end is likely.

The Cycle shows a plunge into the Blue arrow Cycle low.  The December low for SPX is very likely to be retested in January.

60min Chart

Before:

60min Chart

SPX Cycle:

$SPX - Cycle Analysis Shows Volatile Swings Ahead

Volatility is likely to continue for months in SPX.  The Cycle shows a trading range forming (red lines) for months ahead.

SPX made the sudden drop to the red arrow in October.  Currently SPX is near the green arrow Cycle low. 

The Cycle suggests a bounce soon to the orange arrow.

60min Chart

Cycle:  Current location is marked with the green arrow.

$VIX - Cycle Update

VIX is at the gap, and also near the trendline.  Therefore, a bounce for VIX is likely soon.  It might fill the gap first though.

It was an exaggerated spike in October, but it is apparent that the Second Yellow Arrow low is ahead.  The August high for VIX was too flat.  The spike in October fits the Cycle much better even though VIX overshot the blue arrows with surprising strength.

Expect some bounces, but VIX should see lower levels tested to form the Second Yellow Arrow low in the Cycle.

Daily Chart

VIX Cycle 1:

$VIX - Low Due in 1 Week

VIX made an exaggerated spike up in October once it broke above the red resistance.  VIX is now back under the red resistance.  Therefore, some short term downside for VIX is likely.

An important low for VIX is anticipated due in 1 week.

S&P Cycles were mixed in October.  There were short term cycles in October that were quite negative, but some were surprisingly positive.  The result was a very choppy month.  In contrast for November, the Cycles turn extremely negative and remain consistently negative for S&P throughout the month.

The large scale VIX Cycle is heading much higher into December.

Daily Chart 

$SPX - 2014 Target

Next, there is likely to be a 2-3 day bounce only for SPX.  The rest of October looks choppy and can see 1800 tested later in the month.  Bounces will be typically sharp.

November is setting up to be the weakest month.  Cycles are extremely negative for November.  The selloff is anticipated to take another 6 weeks to test near the major trendline. 

The low is due late November to early December.   

4day Chart

UVXY is likely putting in a short term high.  It should cool off for 2-3 days to test the blue support which is the August high.

The up trend for UVXY is forming and it is early.  Another 6 weeks of upside in this trend is anticipated.

Daily Chart

UVXY is likely putting in the green star high currently.  Each bar is one day. 

$VIX - Just the Beginning

VIX did break out above the red line resistance.  According to the VIX Cycle this is just the beginning. 

However, the market will likely calm down next week as some consolidation is due next.  Sideways next for a week or so.  Then, SPX is likely to weaken and continue to grind lower later in October.  

The Cycle suggests a much weaker November and December with VIX accelerating higher.   

Daily Chart

 

VIX Cycle 1:

 



 

UVXY is starting to warm up.  It's testing the blue resistance and previous peak in Aug.  Look for a small dip next week to backtest the breakout.

 

Expect a grinding up trend to develop.  Larger pops are due late in Oct, and it will be choppy.  It should surge much more smoothly in November once all the resistance is cleared.

 

The up trend is developing.  Targets are in the $70 to $80 range for 2014, and $175 to $245 in 2015.



 

Daily Chart

UVXY is likely developing an up trend similar to below.