Wednesday, September 30, 2015

XIV - Target Reached!

The targets for September have been reached both for XIV and UVXY.  The market is not likely strong enough yet to rally much though.  It needs some backfilling for about 1 week to firm.

Once that occurs, then the market will be in a position to spike up sharply to the next target. 

30min Chart

After:  Midfork price objective has been reached for UVXY!

30min Chart


60min Chart

Thursday, September 17, 2015

XIV - Rejected at Resistance!

XIV was harshly rejected at double (pink and turquoise fork) resistance today.  XIV is likely to see significant downside in the weeks ahead.

Cycles are turning bearish into October.  Short term levels for September are shown below.

30min Chart

Wednesday, September 16, 2015

UVXY - Low Forming - Upside Target $120

VIX futures have collapsed during the last two sessions, and interestingly the S&P barely rose.  Complacency just skyrocketed.  That is extremely bearish going forward. 

UVXY is likely nearing an important low.  Lower fork support is just below.  Next upside target is $120.

60min Chart

Daily Chart

Saturday, September 12, 2015

$SPX - Comparison with 1987 Crash - Levels to Watch

The current price action of SPX is remarkably similar to the 1987 crash (on a smaller scale).  Price action has settled down in September.  SPX is currently near resistance though.

Most likely there will be another scare with China.  The Shanghai probably will have some wobbles as it completes a bottoming process, and there is some correlation.   

Around the end of September looks positive.  The first half of October may see some weakness.  However, later in October may see surprising strength.

30min Chart

1987 Crash:

XIV is forming a base, and likely to continue trading mostly in the lower half of the fork.  Levels to watch:

30min Chart

Friday, September 11, 2015

Silver - Before/After - Cycle Low Due

Silver declined from the brown arrow Cycle high as predicted by the bear market Cycle.  Next, timing for the blue arrow Cycle low is due.  A rally well into 2016 is likely from the low. 

Many will say that the bear market is over in coming months because of the long lasting strength of the bounce ahead. 

However, to the contrary, the bear market for Silver still has 2-3 years left as shown in the Cycle.

3day Chart


July 12, 2014:

"The Silver bear market is likely to resume with the next leg lower due in the Cycle.  A steep plunge is shown in the Cycle down to the green arrow.

Targets are $13 for Silver and Gold under $1,000 at the next green arrow low.  Ultimately, the bear market Cycle target remains at $6.50 and another 3-4 years lower."

2day Chart

Silver Bear Market Cycle:

Tuesday, August 25, 2015

$VIX - VIX Cycle Update - White Arrow Reached!

To understand the current market, it is necessary to look at the updated VIX Cycle.  Symmetry pointed to a large move in VIX.  VIX has reached the First White Arrow target high in the VIX Cycle.

The Cycle shows VIX building support in the 20's and eventually retesting 50.  There will be many large spikes as VIX establishes a volatile range during the next two year period.

Volatility is here to stay for several years.

VIX Weekly

VIX Cycle 1:

Sunday, August 23, 2015

XIV - September Targets

XIV broke below the white trendline, therefore that level has become resistance.  This week, a bounce looks likely into Wednesday/Thursday.  Indicators are way oversold.

The comparison model showed that a choppy trading range would develop, and the trading range is well developed now.  Currently XIV is near the low end of the trading range. 

Early September looks soft, but overall a large bounce is targeted for September according to the model.

Daily Chart