Silver - Update - Bear Market Continuing

Silver has declined for more than 1 year after reaching the Cycle high identified in the Summer of 2016.  Silver has been down for more than 6 years, and is the weakest market on the board.

Silver has struggled at horizontal resistance, but may attempt to test the 2016 high with the bear market to resume thereafter.  There is no sign of a bottom.  Silver will take years to finally reach the bottom.  

Weekly Chart

Before:

June 25, 2016:

"Silver formed the double bottom blue arrow lows late last year as anticipated in the Cycle.  The result was a significant bounce. 

Silver is approaching a critical high in the Cycle.  It may seem tempting to view Gold and Silver as a safe haven with turmoil in the market. 

Any safe haven behavior is likely short lived according to the Cycle with a relentless decline directly ahead."

3-day Chart

 

Silver Bear Market Cycle:

XIV - Before/After - Once Again Approaching Resistance

XIV is approaching resistance with long term resistance represented by the white line.  Blue resistance is also above. 

A moderate decline is ahead.  Mid-October into November may be the weakest period.

Daily Chart

Before:

August 11, 2017:

"XIV has reached the targets set out in July analysis.  A low should be near with a large bounce ahead into September.

The orange channel is clearly broken, but overall the XIV chart is still quite strong."

Daily Chart

$SPX - 2,500 September

SPX is continuing to grind up towards 2,500 and is likely to test that level in September. 

It is the same pattern seen all year.  Higher highs and higher lows with a steady grind up towards 2,500.   

Daily Chart

XIV: Before/After - Targets Reached!

XIV has reached the targets set out in July analysis.  A low should be near with a large bounce ahead into September.

The orange channel is clearly broken, but overall the XIV chart is still quite strong.  Volatility is likely to increase in the months ahead.     

Daily Chart:

Before:

July 16, 2017:

"XIV has been consolidating sideways, and the sideways move appears to be over or nearly so.  XIV is approaching long term resistance and volatility is likely to increase dramatically in the months ahead.

However, XIV is still trading within the orange channel, and a test of the upper channel may be possible before the channel breaks."

Daily Chart

XIV - Sideways Over - Larger Moves Ahead

XIV has been consolidating sideways, and the sideways move appears to be over or nearly so.  XIV is approaching long term resistance and volatility is likely to increase dramatically in the months ahead.

However, XIV is still trading within the orange channel, and a test of the upper channel may be possible before the channel breaks. 

Daily Chart

XIV - Orange Channel Support Breached - Large Plunge Coming!

XIV breached orange channel support last week.  The decline initiated with a flashcrash as XIV exhausted near long term resistance.  The drop was signaled in advance by weakening performance. 

A large plunge to test the lower fork line, and turquoise channel support is likely to occur next as shown on the chart below.

Daily Chart

 

$SPX - Before/After - Update

SPX made a V-bottom as anticipated, and has traded back to horizontal resistance once again.  What is next?

Expect to see an overthrow of horizontal resistance, and a washout low. 

60min Chart

Before:

May 1, 2017 analysis:

"SPX has spiked up to test 2,400 as anticipated. 

However, the spike has been too much and too fast.  The gap is likely to fill next as shown on the chart.

The roller coaster to continue..."

60min Chart