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Tuesday, August 25, 2015

$VIX - VIX Cycle Update - White Arrow Reached!

To understand the current market, it is necessary to look at the updated VIX Cycle.  Symmetry pointed to a large move in VIX.  VIX has reached the First White Arrow target high in the VIX Cycle.

The Cycle shows VIX building support in the 20's and eventually retesting 50.  There will be many large spikes as VIX establishes a volatile range during the next two year period.

Volatility is here to stay for several years.

VIX Weekly
















VIX Cycle 1:

Sunday, August 23, 2015

XIV - September Targets

XIV broke below the white trendline, therefore that level has become resistance.  This week, a bounce looks likely into Wednesday/Thursday.  Indicators are way oversold.

The comparison model showed that a choppy trading range would develop, and the trading range is well developed now.  Currently XIV is near the low end of the trading range. 

Early September looks soft, but overall a large bounce is targeted for September according to the model.

Daily Chart

Thursday, August 20, 2015

XIV - Triangle Formation

The model for XIV remains positive, therefore the market should be forming a low shortly. 

XIV has cooled off and is trading near trendline support.  As well a triangle formation has formed and according to the model, the next push up should be quite strong.  It's likely to surge up and out of the triangle to the upside, and break out of the fork.

The behavior of the market has been consistent with the choppy sideways phase of the model which started early in July.   

Notice that XIV is forming a higher low with July.  This contrasts SPX which has a lower low from July.  This is bullish for the market! 

Daily Chart

Tuesday, June 30, 2015

XIV - Flashcrash Update

The comparison model suggested that volatility would increase and the market would become very choppy as the high forms.  The initial dip occurred yesterday which signals the start of this choppy phase. 

The model does indicate a slightly higher high in July/August though it should be considered possible that the high is already in place.  In any case the model suggests a bounce soon and the high re-tested, and up into mid-July next. 

At this pace the flashcrash is due August at the earliest and September at the latest.

Daily

Sunday, May 24, 2015

XIV - Flashcrash Setup

The SPX Cycle analysis has suggested a bearish move ahead.  However, the market has been slowly grinding higher.  The bullish move looks likely to finally complete in June with SPX declining rapidly, particularly in July, once the high has completed. 

The high should form with churning in June, and then July looks to be the most bearish month of this year.

A comparison with the Flashcrash of SPX in May 2010 with XIV is interesting.  XIV may have some upside in the first half of June, and then complete the high in June.  The comparison suggests a Flashcrash in July.   

Daily









Friday, April 10, 2015

$SPX - Cycle Bearish - Dip to Purple Arrow Next

The expanding formation (red lines) is well defined now, and has formed as predicted by the Cycle. 

The pink arrow is in place.  A dip down to the purple arrow low to test around the red support is expected next according to the Cycle.

2hour Chart
















SPX Cycle:



















Sunday, March 29, 2015

$SPX - Cycle Update

The expanding formation (red lines) is well defined now, and has formed as predicted by the Cycle.  Possibly the pink arrow is in place. 

This is a particularly choppy spot in the Cycle. 

A dip to test near the red support can be expected, but strong bounces are also likely to occur as the market continues to bounce up and down within the red resistance and support lines.  This choppiness is anticipated to persist during the months of April and May according to the Cycle. 

2hour Chart
















Before:

















SPX Cycle: