SPX - In VIX We Trust

SPX has a clear Double Top which completed this September.  

The top is in.  Last week the trendline was broken to the downside.  SPX will soon resume the downtrend which is already in place.  

Daily

VIX has been trending higher for years.  Starting in August the VIX trend began to accelerate to the upside.

Weekly

VIX continues to trend higher to break the 1987 trendline which has already been previously tested.

Yearly

SVXY has been leading lower for more than 1 year to date.  The recent failure of SVXY to test the July peak was the "tell" that SPX had, in fact, topped.

Daily

UVXY - V Bottom

There is strong probability that UVXY has formed a V bottom.

Expect UVXY to rise the same way it came down.  UVXY can be up every day next as it rises towards to the red line as shown.

15min Chart

30min Chart

SPX - Weekly Losses

SPX advanced with three weekly bars, but last week it gave a bearish signal when we look at the last bar.  The bar was the weakest, and closed Friday down with an inside day.

This week, SPX will probably drop to erase last week's gains, and test gap support as shown.

60min Chart

SVXY - Leg Down Soon

SVXY declined off resistance after failing on a test of the September 2018 high.

It is clear that SVXY is leading lower.  SVXY is making a bounce, but likely close to an inflection point once again.  Resistance is just above with a confluence of support showing at $46.

Volatility to spike soon.

Daily

Before: July 3rd Analysis

Daily

UVXY - Interesting Timing

As volatility marches higher with VIX moving to 60, the runs in UVXY will expand in size going forward.

UVXY looks ready for a run...

Daily Chart

$SPX - 2019 Model Update

SPX has continued to follow the 2019 Model with deep pullbacks and higher highs and higher lows.

This pullback in SPX should complete in August and is likely to be followed by a higher high in September according to the Model.

The price action is typical following a consolidation year.

Daily Chart

SPX 2019 Model:

VXO - 1987 Trendline

VXO has formed a trendline from 1987 to 2008.  VXO has been spiking frequently, and has been in a rising trend for two years now.

When VXO trends up for two years, it typically sees a large move higher on the third year.  An outsized move in volatility is coming due in the year 2020.

A test of the 1987 trendline would take VXO up to approximately 65, and surpass all peaks since 2008.

Yearly Chart

VIX typically tops out 5 points less then VXO at volatility peaks giving a VIX target of 60.

Yearly Chart