Pages

Saturday, March 19, 2016

XIV/UVXY Targets - Cycle Update

It is probable that XIV is completing the blue arrow high as shown in the model.  Eventually XIV should test the lower white line, and so there is potential for a large decline ahead.

UVXY has a first target of $35 initially.  The second target suggested by the model is a minimum of $80, with potential for up to $120 as a maximum target.

The next turn date for the SPX timing Cycle is April 8th.  SPX should see a significant initial plunge by or around that date to 1930 to 1950.

2hour Chart


















Hang Seng 1997 Crash Model:




















UVXY short term target.  The first target is shown of a much larger move up!

2hour Chart

















39 comments:

  1. This appears to be a low risk, and potentially very high reward spot to short. For SPX see the previous chart, and following comments:

    SCMarch 19, 2016 at 7:41 AM

    "Currently SPX is close to the white trajectory line as shown on the chart above. The white line should act as a resistance and repel.

    So this is a very nice spot to look for a decline. If SPX were to escape this white line then it would be time to reconsider. It seems highly unlikely considering this white line has repelled for more than 2 years.

    There is a trendline up around 2080 SPX, and also a time stop can be kept in mind. The next turn date is April 8th. The bears want to see action to the downside by that time."

    ReplyDelete
  2. I notice that the banks have not rallied much since February. Very weak and a signal of trouble ahead...

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hi SC
    WOW , Chart looks awesome. Can't wait :-)
    Thanks again for all your analysis :-)

    ReplyDelete
  4. Decline will likely begin by 22 March based on cycles, moon phase, nymo, cpce levels... It will likely be choppy at first as bulls buy the initial dip before Easter...low will likely be around 7-8 April based on moon phase. All conveniently timed with quarterly earnings reports to provide a nice bounce...

    ReplyDelete
  5. http://tinyurl.com/jqb3qss

    CORRECTION…according to yahoo finance, 2000 top was 1552.87 on March 24 and 2007 top was 1,576.09 on October 11…during May 2016, SPX will be testing the 1553 area...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank you Rotrot, this January was certainly weaker than I had originally anticipated, and suggests further weakness ahead this year.

      Delete
  6. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/did-central-bankers-make-a-secret-deal-to-drive-markets-this-rumor-says-yes-2016-03-18?siteid=yhoof2

    ReplyDelete
  7. Any stop loss regarding your UVXY trade? I am a bit concerned by your over optimism. Traders are often wrong when they are over confident? What do you think? All the best,

    bobo

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Stops are as per the time and price stops on SPX as in the first comment on this thread.

      Rest assured I am confident that the analysis is done correctly.

      Delete
  8. Thanks for your response. Nevertheless, your price stops on your UVXY trade is not clear to me. I guess your stop depends on the SPX. But where the SPX would need to trade for you exit your UVXY position? 2100? Thanks for your precision.

    And best of luck for this trade and your free work.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If you look at the Update before this one called "$SPX - Weekly", you will see a SPX chart with an oval, the red arrow is around 2050... we are there.
      That is where it should turn down. It has not yet, but much above that would be a Stop.

      Delete
  9. check out Northy's SPX weekly as of the close on March 21, 2006

    https://northmantrader.files.wordpress.com/2014/04/spx-w28.png

    ReplyDelete
  10. Larry Berman, good tech analyist, predicts 1600's in this bear market. No timeframe, see BNN Bermans call week of Mar 14

    ReplyDelete
  11. http://www.thestreet.com/story/13503606/1/china-s-stock-market-is-about-to-crash-sell-before-it-s-too-late.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

    ReplyDelete
  12. Spy to 210 Iwm 113 then we'll start pullback

    ReplyDelete
  13. SC, I hope you're doing well. I understand that you prefer to remain evasive regarding your stop loss on your UVXY trade. But I hope that you have a price level in mind. It is completely fool to take exposure to these kinds of products without knowing how much you can loose in the worst case. UVXY is falling straight toward 20. How much additional decline you would like to see before going out?

    Thanks to inform your readers. It is important, from an ethical perspective, to remain transparent with the readers of your fantastic blog.

    All the best, and I hope that April will be a successful month for you.

    ReplyDelete
  14. SPX is seeing a reaction and dipping from the white resistance as one would expect. However, it isn't convincing of a turn lower quite yet either.

    XIV is grinding along the white line. I am considering that it may attempt to reach the turquoise line before turning lower.

    I am watching to see how things shape up here. If it becomes clear that the rally is consolidating prior to some upside then I would consider stepping aside. We will see how it shapes up this week. SPX is at least struggling at this level.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SC, what SPX level are you watching to confirm downside momentum?

      Delete
    2. SPX support is around 2025, and then 2000.

      Delete
  15. Hi SC
    Markets seem to be heading down , lets hope it continues this way. Oil also taking a nice hit.
    Thanks for your hard work. I know its not easy finding the bottom in these markets but as long as we make money its all good.

    Grazie

    ReplyDelete
  16. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/rich-dad-author-says-the-market-collapse-he-foresaw-in-2002-is-coming-2016-03-23?siteid=yhoof2

    ReplyDelete
  17. Trin (Arms Index) closed above 2.0 today. This is usually a positive for equities, at least over the short-term.
    Better get out UVXY if we head up Thursday.
    http://fat-pitch.blogspot.com/2014/08/a-sign-of-possible-capitulation-trin.html

    ReplyDelete
  18. XIV may attempt to hit the turquoise line before a more significant decline. UVXY is around the blue line, but not so sure it's strong enough to break out. Decided to step aside, but will plan to reenter UVXY if XIV reaches the turquoise line.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Hi SC
    good catch to protect your investment.
    Whats the plan if XIV doesn't reach the turquoise line ?

    thanks again for all your hard work.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. So far over the last month 3 trades on UVXY with 2 having small gain and 1 small loss. I'm not pleased with that result, but considering it's down from $60's to $20's being nimble has been important.

      The model shows a spot later to short anyways so I'm not concerned with missing moves. There will be a number of false starts to downside. I do think there will be a good short entry again soon.

      Delete
  20. The market has been gradually weakening over the last year. Market condition is deteriorating but slowly.

    ReplyDelete
  21. Hi SC , any analysis on OIL since it hit a high for the year and now back down under $40 a barrel ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. $50 Oil seems possible in May, but pullback in April.

      Delete
  22. Looking closely at the model for XIV it made 3 drives and 2 pullbacks to reach the blue arrow high.

    So far we have 2 drives and 2 pullbacks. One more runup ideally to complete the blue arrow high, and then it would be set beautifully for an April plunge...

    ReplyDelete
  23. SC, what's your comment about the entering UVXY with the recent pullback! I am not so positive at this time until around first week of April 2016.. I anticipate SPX to be in the range of 2060-2065 until the next turn..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The market is starting to look tired, but there may a pop before it declines. Weakness in April is likely.

      Delete
  24. SC
    lets hope so :-)
    Do you see OIL continuing to go further down ?
    Thanks again

    ReplyDelete
  25. SPX on fire , may see 2060-2065 as mentioned earlier
    UVXY making new 52week lows,,,

    ReplyDelete
  26. The last leg lower for UVXY from March 10th was $7. Doubt we'd see that much on this leg, possibly $5 from $21. The lower trendline comes in at $18. So $16 to $18 seems possible ideally for UVXY entry. UVXY could spike up in April so this is getting interesting.

    ReplyDelete
  27. SC, can you please post an updated chart for the spx?
    What price level are you looking for as the top now?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete