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Monday, July 11, 2016

$SPX - Outlook - Levels and Timing to Watch

SPX continues to struggle and test the level of long term resistance.  A pullback is due this week.  However, the level of 2,100 may offer support during July.

July 31st is an important time for a potential high.  August 10th is a date to watch for a potential low.

60min Chart

42 comments:

  1. I believe the cycle is a day or 2 off I believe we will be down into Wednesday possible 2060

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  2. Not going below 2100 for quite a while now. Lucky if you get below 2120 in July. The market is now moving up, with zig zag and consolidation. Earnings will probably be better than expected...causing a further surge upward shortly.

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  3. I believe uvxy on its way to 11.20

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  4. 2108 should be the minimum downside 2060 would be the max

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  5. VIX testing the April to June support, and VIX is up today.

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  6. I believe we go down to 2108 minimum I believe vix will rise from here and we see minimum 10.20 to 11.20 on uvxy will see good luck

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  7. 2125 now bottom of any near term pullbacks. Too strong.

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  8. you have exhaustion going on right now I believe 2100
    possibly 2080 by Friday we will see waves can go 2 plus trade dates we will see

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  9. Market may pull back for more up.

    But pull back is optional. up is mandatory for now.

    One nice thing is that top is near.

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  10. Congratulations to 'Be Careful', the only person on this blog who saw this coming nearly 2 weeks ago.

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  11. 2160-70 normal. 2125 on pullbacks. Melt to 2200 coming sooner rather than later. Be careful.

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    Replies
    1. Do u have a twitter handle, be careful? thks

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  12. SPX hovering around the pink fork resistance today.

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    Replies
    1. I'll have to wait and see how the next dates hit. Sometimes it get's out of sync then comes back into alignment.

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    2. Today is a turn date, then the next date is the 15th, then the 22nd.

      The fact there is a cluster of dates suggests chop.

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  13. XIV has been surprisingly weak during this rally. Unlike SPX, XIV hasn't recovered from the brexit drop from $30. It's such a huge disagreement with the SPX rally at this time that it suggests at least a pullback is coming.

    The 200 weekly for XIV is in the high $29's. It's been a strong level of resistance.

    I do think XIV has bottomed as mentioned in the last analysis, but the question is what price does it become attractive. Support seems to building in the $24 to $25 range.

    $29's, $24 to $25, and then $32's seems most likely. I'll wait and see for the $24 to $25.

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  14. This rally is fake. SPX 2,040 is coming.

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  15. Sc, looks like things have been changed by bankers to keep the market up. cpe .50, greed/fear ratio: 88%bulls, mccollan oscillator 148, but it is buy the dips unless some really bad news hits . there are gaps at 2000, 2020, and people are fearless, talking 2400-2500. but looks like one down move and then upto sept again. before anything

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    Replies
    1. Drop first, then rally in the fall months.

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    2. market will sell off into Friday I believe 2080 to 2100 by friday

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  16. I have a chart coming that shows exactly why this rally occurred, and it's clear what happens next. Definitely a fake "breakout".

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  17. sc, do you expect 2200 in the next rally and that rally to take you in sept

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    Replies
    1. Drop into Aug/Sept first. The rally should start in Sept, and yes that number and then some.

      I have a target, but let this next move play out, one step at a time.

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  18. also when do you expect gld/slv top out and start fall

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    Replies
    1. Not much room or time on the upside for Gold and Silver. With the stock market thawing, the safe haven trade is about to unwind.

      I doubt Gold and Silver have topped yet, but it is looking thin.

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  19. What this rally has confirmed is that the low is in at 1,992 SPX. There will not be a lower low, but 2,040 SPX will be tested.

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  20. be careful, do u have a twitter? or is there anyway I can contact u?

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  21. Sc so your projection of 1650 not happening now

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    Replies
    1. Yes that is also happening. First things first.

      The progression of moves will be clear when I show the chart.

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  22. The reason SPX is down today is that it hit the pink resistance exactly at the open, and then fell instantly.

    Too early to say it has peaked, but it shows SPX is feeling that resistance.

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  23. Tomorrow may be important it seems. Possible overthrow. High tomorrow???

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    Replies
    1. What would be your overthrow target on SPX? How much higher do you see? Thanks!

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  24. be careful, where are u?

    Respond pls. I really hope to follow u on twitter or email u. Thks.

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  25. Suspected the overthrow. Everything seemed to be converging on today for a high, and we got it!

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  26. SPX has reached my target for the month. I think the market may grind somewhat higher today from the open though.

    This has all the ingredients for an important high!

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  27. XIV has met the $29 target at the 200 weekly moving average.

    SCJuly 12, 2016 at 12:26 PM

    "XIV has been surprisingly weak during this rally. Unlike SPX, XIV hasn't recovered from the brexit drop from $30. It's such a huge disagreement with the SPX rally at this time that it suggests at least a pullback is coming.

    The 200 weekly for XIV is in the high $29's. It's been a strong level of resistance.

    I do think XIV has bottomed as mentioned in the last analysis, but the question is what price does it become attractive. Support seems to building in the $24 to $25 range.

    $29's, $24 to $25, and then $32's seems most likely. I'll wait and see for the $24 to $25."

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  28. The last 3 days XIV has fallen off the open. Today it'll probably grind higher through the day.

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