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Tuesday, December 20, 2016

UVXY - Before/After - Next Targets!

UVXY has nearly reached it's target identified in September analysis.  UVXY is currently trading around the white trendline though could undershoot the line. 

This is an interesting setup for UVXY with an initial target of $10 and a higher potential target of $30.

2-hour Chart
















Before: September 14, 2016

Daily Chart
















66 comments:

  1. Ideally UVXY should undershoot the white line so it may still have a few dollars downside before it is ready.

    It does look to be an excellent setup!

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  2. In this case I may look to start building a position with an initial block in the $7's and then if it comes lower add.

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    Replies
    1. Price for UVXY already looks attractive, but it'll probably come lower. $5, $6, $7 are all possible here. At $7.50 I would be interested in starting to build a position and then increase from there.

      It should spike up very quickly to around $10 once it bottoms out.

      Delete
  3. sC what will be app targets of sp500 when uvxy at 12 and 30

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    Replies
    1. Dow 20,000 is a given. SPX may see 2295 then I expect it can pull back to 2230, and probably see 2300. So SPX may not top until January. 10% correction looks likely early next year, but forming the top can take a month.

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    2. SC, so this is the path you see 2295--2230--2300--2100, right?

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    3. Yes, those are targets. My low target is 2040 SPX.

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  4. Nice plan - clear and simple
    I hope it will work for you
    Are you going to do a review of 2016? I guess the year has been less profitable than you expected.

    Re--silver? It seems that you have missed a large part of the downtrend. Have you planned to enter the short side? If so, when, at which conditions?

    Best wishes for you and your family

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    Replies
    1. 2016 was a quiet year for the market. A year of consolidation. Notably the politics were interesting, of course, but as always the market knows best and was relatively quiet.

      Silver is a good short, but I see Silver as a longer term short play of several years.

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  5. Replies
    1. UVXY hasn't undershot the white line much yet. So it may come a little lower yet, but still the upside looks very appealing at this level.

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    2. SC, great entry, what level could you add the other 50%? Or are you only looking to add below $7?

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  6. Thank you SC
    So target for UVXY around $10 ,,, and a possibility of running to $30ish in coming months

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    Replies
    1. Yes $10 UVXY initially then it should cool off to form basically a double bottom over the next month. After that $30.

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  7. Just curious proshares just announced a split uvxy what are your thoughts about the split that's going to happen 1 for 5reverse on January 17th this happened on Seeking Alpha that's what you could find this news

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  8. SC, looks like UVXY will 5:1 reverse split on Jan 12, 2017...
    your thoughts?

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  9. http://seekingalpha.com/news/3232314-proshares-announces-splits-reverse-splits-13-levered-etfs

    i believe that uvxy is doing a split how do you feel about that

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  10. VIX

    http://mymarketgeometry.com/

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  11. It's likely that UVXY pops to $10 before the reverse split. The plan is to exit the position on that pop so it's not an issue.

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  12. SC,

    How much capital do you risk per each trade as a percentage of your total trading balance?

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    Replies
    1. It all depends on the situation and other opportunities that are available. Generally, the smaller cycles are underweight and the larger cycles are overweight.

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  13. amazing how vix and vxn up no movement uvxy weird

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    Replies
    1. It's probably because we are close to a significant turning point.

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  14. Quick & straightforward question SC: do you see the SP500 up or down for the whole 2017?

    Best wishes

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    Replies
    1. The Cycle shows 2017 similar to 2016 for the S&P. Weak in the first half and strong in the second half of the year.

      Up in 2017!

      Delete
  15. Would you switch to XIV when SPX close to 2230, should be a good pop for the run to SPX 2300? Thanks!

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    Replies
    1. Well as a rule it's best to avoid attempting to catch the last move in a run. Sometimes they truncate or are minimal. So the plan is to focus on UVXY for the next 3 months.

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    2. Later in the year there is a great spot for XIV, but for now I'm showing support for XIV way down at $25.

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    3. Thanks SC, are you still looking to exit around $10?

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    4. Yes, I am. The market is starting to look very weak. The downturn is near.

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  16. XIV

    http://mymarketgeometry.com/

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  17. wondering if its wise to biuy more uvxy anybody

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  18. UVXY is squarely in the target zone. However, it is still trading at the white line. An undershoot would be ideal.

    Next turn date is Jan 9th. I'll wait and see to add UVXY closer to $5.

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    Replies
    1. still the same target $10 even UVXY close to $5?

      Delete
  19. Turn dates Jan 9th, Jan 24th, and Feb 22nd. Expect a drop for the market into February.

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  20. Any thoughts on gold? I'm thinking it will go up to $1200 resistance and then drop.

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  21. Tend to agree for gold. Every bounce to fail for the next year and a half for gold. According to the cycle this is a major downtrend for gold.

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  22. SC, you still anticipating $30 for UVXY or is that $30 after the split?

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    Replies
    1. The post split adjusted target for UVXY is $120 to $150.

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    2. so sc you are saying that it will split before it moves correct me if i am wrong

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    3. I've outlined 2 targets. $10 first target and $30 second target. Both of those are pre-split figures. The expectation is that the first move is due during the Jan/Feb time frame. If the first move happens post split then the adjusted target is $50.

      The second move will unquestionably be post split. That target is $120 to $150.

      I'll be looking to exit on the first move and rebuild a position for the second larger move.

      Delete
  23. @NorthmanTrader
    In the year 2007 $VIX went to 9.87 in January. The $VIX then spiked to 37.5 by summer and then peaked at 89 in 2008.

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    Replies
    1. Thank you! My VIX Cycle shows 10 VIX then 50 VIX to be tested. 50 is a retest of the high in 2015. The Cycle shows a retest of that high.

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  24. SC, if UVXY not in the $5 area next Monday the turn date, would you still buy or wait?

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    Replies
    1. This is why I've strategized to enter in blocks. Start building a position early and then add.

      If not Monday then I would wait until around the next turn date of Jan 24th which is just after the inauguration of Trump. Quite possible even most probable that is important timing.

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    2. thanks, understood, so here price is more important than the turn date, price is king

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  25. SC, do you think the market topped or still can make 2300? Thank you

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  26. I'll wait to see next week.

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  27. sc do you think uvxy is a good buy here at this level or it will drift lower. your thoughts thanks

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    Replies
    1. Drift lower, but the turn is getting close.

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  28. Still holding my UVXY, bit frustrating, do you see high 5s or low 5s?

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  29. sc, for UVXY double bottom, we still at 1st bottom with $50 next or forming 2nd bottom with $150 next? thanks

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    Replies
    1. Forming 1st bottom. It's shaping up nicely.

      Delete
  30. UVXY may likely go lower into OpEx week...and next week's SP500 high may likely become THE high for a bit...if so, UVXY may likely become a very attractive buy next week... just a guess.

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  31. @ dc-Bear, I think so too...S&P500 RSI Bearish Divergence and VIX RSI Bullish Divergence in progress...so we're getting close to a High.

    The S&P500 and VIX divergence is explained here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H1mhwx3SZII

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  32. weekly point of control is 226.80 a move above that would mean neckline of 227.40 on spy amove above that would measn 230

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  33. Market conditions are deteriorating on a daily basis. Slowly but surely momentum is disappearing. I'll be shorting more this week or next.

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  34. Market to be much higher on Friday.

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  35. Hi all, I found a very interesting pattern in the daily chart...if it plays out like the last 2 times, then 2292-2300 (maybe 2320) is in the cards for today/tomorrow and followed by a break to the downside of at least 100 points into FEB 10.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMOvSjT4IyM

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  36. 2191 is the hard bottom for any down moves. Nothing spectacular through February.

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  37. last turn date is a high, would like SPX just stay high not drop into the next turn date 24th, your thoughts, SC?

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  38. with that said, sell the news or not, Trump would probably want the market to corrected now, then when the market finally gets Dow 20k, he can get the credits

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