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Sunday, June 26, 2016

$SPX - What's Next - July Targets

SPX failed at the horizontal resistance, and the decline to the purple arrow low was initiated on Friday.

The purple arrow low is due August.  SPX is likely to decline into August with several sharp bounces along the way.

There will be some soft spots during the coming week, but overall it looks positive.  Generally the market is due to consolidate during the week ahead.

Daily Chart
















UVXY is slowly warming up.  High levels of complacency exist in the market which suggests significant upside for UVXY into August.

Probably an inverse head and shoulders pattern is forming. 

Daily Chart
















49 comments:

  1. People Want Re-vote

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/britain-revote-stop-brexit-081452041.html

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  2. SC, are you positioned? You do not see fresh 2016 highs any more? All the best!

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    Replies
    1. The decline should carry into August, then up again. Still a weak bull market according to the Cycle.

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  3. SC
    further declines today , whats your play ?
    thanks

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  4. Ok, so downtrend into August followed by a renewed uptrend and new 2016 highs.
    The question is this: are you currently positioned? what is your game plan?

    Thanks for your lights

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    Replies
    1. Yes, that is correct.

      Positioned for a bounce currently. Planning to utilize an active strategy both short and long. Expecting some significant bounces along the way down.

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  5. You show a bounce to 2070-80? Hm. Interesting.

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    Replies
    1. seems like it could be 2030 , this time then to purple arrow according to chart above

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  6. You hold xiv at 24? I have been dead wrong on my projections.

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  7. VIX is in the red today, market should bounce back. Looks like I entered XIV prematurely so will be looking to exit soon. It seems UVXY is itching to test $18.

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  8. The next turn date is approaching June 30th. SPX may be soft until that time, but around June 30th heat up.

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  9. Thanks SC. What about Lombardi: "I think up big possibly 2120 by Thursday". Do you maintain your view or have you revised your short-term forecast?

    Best

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  10. obviously 2100 not in cards this week i still think we could bounce up tomorrow to at least 2045

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  11. crazy market though we are seeing crazy spikes in spy to upside on 1 minute aftermarket charts one of my friends alerted me is any one seeing this cause i am not

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  12. 700,000 share block just went off on spy at 199.60 5.07.49
    was the time

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  13. Wave c is 1.681 extention of wave a (2120-1950) and based on the 70 day cycle, JUN 28, I favor the scenario where the Low is set for wave II down. I do take into account that the 1960, weekly support, could be tested but for now I think wave III will start anytime soon.
    Enjoy the day all!
    Www.tripstrading.com

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  14. SC, what's your target for XIV around the 30th high?

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  15. Let's see if we could get to 2040
    2050 that would be ideal for next setup

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  16. UVXY respected the double resistance yesterday and cooling off.

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  17. SPX Cycle has a high on June 30th. Possibly the high could extend into next week.

    Then the next low is July 12th.

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  18. Replies
    1. Weak performance for XIV. It made a bounce off the $20 pink fork support. Will wait and look for a better spot for it possibly around $18.

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    2. what price would be good entry for uvxy 12 and under

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    3. UVXY tested the pink line at $12.75. The brown line is around $12 today.

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    4. thats exactly what im thinkin thanks for your help much appreciated

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    5. It's starting to look interesting. Getting closer to that $12 area.

      It's not interacting with the brown line quite yet though.

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  19. there is a possibility that we get slammed down to
    1950 by thursday friday

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  20. 1989 or 1932 gaps are a blessing.

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    Replies
    1. i believe that that is one of my models

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  21. Replies
    1. Touched the brown line.

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    2. SC, whats you exit target and timeline? thx

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    3. UVXY likely to pop from this brown line so just looking at this as a short term move. $13 area.

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  22. Still early for the June 30th turn date though.

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  23. Replies
    1. that is the 200 strike puts july 8 @1.28

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  24. VXY will go below 10 by thursday. S&P need to go at least 2060-2070 area before go down again to 1970.

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  25. SC, based on your chart is the SPX on its way to the 2080 mark now?

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    Replies
    1. Not yet, another plunge first.

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  26. seems like we are trying to catch the low and highs
    but we are missing them and losing money so far buying high selling low , then buying again only to see it go lower..

    just saying,,,

    Happy Investing

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    Replies
    1. Whipsaws. It is a turbulent market without question. Agree though, can catch these moves more efficiently.

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  27. Nobody is gonna get the exact bottom or top yesterday I though we hit 2045 50 we didn't we hit today I believe we get hammered possibly into 1925. we will see i will be buying more uvxy today probably we will see good trading

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