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Thursday, April 2, 2020

$VIX - Support Soon

VIX nears the middle support, and is anticipated to reach that level soon.

Once the middle support is tested a rise in volatility is expected.  TVIX, UVXY, and VXX are consolidating currently.

2 Day Chart

















UVXY has been in a declining channel for several years, and is likely to transition into a rising trend.

2 Day Chart















Friday, March 27, 2020

$SPX - Large Scale

SPX tried and failed to breakout above resistance.  Price hit major support exactly and bounced this week.

Down pressure remains this year.

Quarterly

Friday, March 20, 2020

TVIX - Meltdown Underway

TVIX made a parabolic rise, and started to meltdown yesterday.

The 50 weekly moving average is at $146, and should provide support next week.  TVIX should hold over that in the $250 level. 

60min Chart

















SVXY finally broke out of a relentless downtrend.

60min Chart















Tuesday, March 17, 2020

$SPX - March and April Timing and Targets

This week and next week could see positive performance in SPX with a relief rally.

The blue mid-resistance is the initial target.  After that level is reached SPX may slide down into May.

2 hour Chart

Monday, March 16, 2020

$VIX - Peak Panic

VIX may be running out of room to advance in this panic.

This is a volatility event.  VIX is testing near the 2008 high.

SPX is holding quite well compared to 2008.  While fast, this drop for SPX is mild in terms of percentage in a bear market relative to 2008.

The monthly chart shows long term levels of VIX support and resistance.

Monthly Chart

Sunday, March 15, 2020

$SPX - Establishing The Range

SPX is swinging up and down likely the beginning of a consolidation move.

There is some resistance overhead.  However, SPX is low enough that the buying pressure keeps it balanced.

Daily

Saturday, March 14, 2020

Silver/Gold - Failure at Resistance

Silver fell precipitously last week off resistance.

There is some support at $14 for Silver, but as hard as Silver is falling support won't last long.  The next level of support is $10 Silver.

Silver is declining to long term target of $6.50.

Weekly

















Gold is faring better than Silver, but a correction in Gold is underway.  Gold is near the 200 Weekly Moving Average so a bounce may occur soon, but support is weak.

Stronger support is located at $1,375 for Gold.


Weekly
















Friday, March 13, 2020

SVXY - Fed Meeting In Focus!

SVXY is testing major support.

Fed meeting next week.  There is no circuit breaker to the upside!

Daily

Monday, March 9, 2020

Bitcoin - Triangle Formation

Bitcoin has formed a triangle.  Trading near support again, Bitcoin may make another run to 10,000 soon.

Daily

Friday, March 6, 2020

$VXO - Testing 1987 Trendline!!!

VXO is testing the previous high.   The 1987 Trendline is still higher!!!

Weekly

Sunday, March 1, 2020

TVIX - More Upside Ahead!

TVIX will cool tomorrow, but continue to rise higher into the following week.

TVIX is cheap relative to VIX.  This is because the futures curve is in extreme backwardation.  VIX is high and the VIX futures will continue to rise to reach equilibrium.

Fade this one day bounce for markets!  

Daily

















SPX will rise tomorrow and fall for 5 or 6 days afterwards.  Fade this bounce!  You will see a better entry the following week.

Daily

















VXO is pushing towards the 1987 trendline.  Higher yet!

Yearly

















Wednesday, February 26, 2020

$SPX - VIX and Volatility

SPX plummeted after breaking the turquoise fork.

The white support is effectively being tested, and SPX isn't out of the woods until this week is over.  A huge gap is overhead, and SPX is going to attempt to push with a pop next week.

Daily

















SPX is testing weekly support.

Weekly

















SVXY made a crashy drop after busting the orange, but then hit a support yesterday at blue.  In one week it's dropped almost all it's gain since October.

Daily

















VIX melted up through the rectangle yesterday like butter.  Resistance becomes support.

Daily

















VXO testing weekly resistance.

Weekly
















Tuesday, February 25, 2020

TVIX - Short Term Levels

TVIX is cooling off today.

Possibly consolidation with a triangle formation this week.  Watch these short term levels and 50% retracement.

30min Chart

Monday, February 24, 2020

$VXO - 1987 Trendline Update

VXO has formed a trendline from 1987 to 2008.  VXO has been spiking, and has been in a rising trend into the third year now. 

The trendline may be acting as a magnet.  

A test of the 1987 trendline would take VXO up to approximately 65, and surpass all peaks since 2008.

Yearly

Thursday, February 20, 2020

UVXY - Timing Maturing

UVXY and TVIX will probably see a lower low soon.  Interestingly the declines are becoming shorter and shallower.

The timing is maturing and March looks ripe for a turn. 

Daily

Saturday, February 15, 2020

$SPX - Weekly Measured Move

SPX has nearly completed a measured move on the weekly chart.  The rally has been weaker this time than the first rally early in 2019.

A down week this coming week looks probable.  Within the next several weeks the measured move should finish.

A two month selloff is anticipated.    

Weekly

Monday, February 3, 2020

TVIX and UVXY - Friday the 13th Nightmare Continues...

January was a nightmare for the stock market.

Iran's top General Soleimani was assassinated, 176 people were killed when Iran shot down a passenger plane by mistake, and Kobe Bryant is dead.

Coronavirus has infected 17,205 with a rising death toll of 361 people.  60 million people are quarantined in China.  Countries are quickly closing their borders with the Chinese.  China is becoming isolated, and Coronavirus continues to infect people exponentially.  Fears of a global pandemic went viral.

This is fear, and after fear comes panic.  The selling will only end when panic selling occurs.

In January, the VIX futures curve normalized and moved into backwardation going into March, 2020.  UVXY/TVIX have the advantage with the curve, underpriced relative to VIX.  

Daily

















UVXY bottomed out, and has been rising in accordance with the pattern.  Price and timing of the turn were accurate.

2 day Chart

















Before:

November 14th, 2019 analysis:

2 day Chart















Thursday, January 30, 2020

VIX - Rectangle Pattern Update - Heading Higher!

VIX found support with the rectangle pattern as anticipated.

The lower boundary proved to be strong support and VIX has surged up.  VIX is likely heading up to test the upper boundary of the pattern in February.

Daily Chart

















Before:

October 24th analysis:

"The VIX has formed a rectangular pattern, and is approaching the main trendline and rectangle support.

VIX is bound within the rectangle in the short term.  Once the pattern matures the moves will become extremely violent."


Daily Chart



Tuesday, January 28, 2020

TVIX - Levels of Support and Resistance

Upside looks minimal, but possibly TVIX could rise to test horizontal resistance as shown.

The gap has practically been filled with support underneath.

60min Chart

Friday, January 24, 2020

SVXY - February 4th - State of the Union Address

As expected Davos marked the turn, and SVXY dropped to test support today.

Because it is an election year, generally, the most important turn dates will be marked by political events.

The next such event is coming on February 4th.

60min Chart

Wednesday, January 15, 2020

$SPX - Davos Switzerland - Jan 21st to 24th

The SPX rally which began in October has nearly exhausted.  The most important event this month is the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland which takes place next week.

Support is building at 3,000.

Daily