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Saturday, February 15, 2020

$SPX - Weekly Measured Move

SPX has nearly completed a measured move on the weekly chart.  The rally has been weaker this time than the first rally early in 2019.

A down week this coming week looks probable.  Within the next several weeks the measured move should finish.

A two month selloff is anticipated.    

Weekly

Monday, February 3, 2020

TVIX and UVXY - Friday the 13th Nightmare Continues...

January was a nightmare for the stock market.

Iran's top General Soleimani was assassinated, 176 people were killed when Iran shot down a passenger plane by mistake, and Kobe Bryant is dead.

Coronavirus has infected 17,205 with a rising death toll of 361 people.  60 million people are quarantined in China.  Countries are quickly closing their borders with the Chinese.  China is becoming isolated, and Coronavirus continues to infect people exponentially.  Fears of a global pandemic went viral.

This is fear, and after fear comes panic.  The selling will only end when panic selling occurs.

In January, the VIX futures curve normalized and moved into backwardation going into March, 2020.  UVXY/TVIX have the advantage with the curve, underpriced relative to VIX.  

Daily

















UVXY bottomed out, and has been rising in accordance with the pattern.  Price and timing of the turn were accurate.

2 day Chart

















Before:

November 14th, 2019 analysis:

2 day Chart















Thursday, January 30, 2020

VIX - Rectangle Pattern Update - Heading Higher!

VIX found support with the rectangle pattern as anticipated.

The lower boundary proved to be strong support and VIX has surged up.  VIX is likely heading up to test the upper boundary of the pattern in February.

Daily Chart

















Before:

October 24th analysis:

"The VIX has formed a rectangular pattern, and is approaching the main trendline and rectangle support.

VIX is bound within the rectangle in the short term.  Once the pattern matures the moves will become extremely violent."


Daily Chart



Tuesday, January 28, 2020

TVIX - Levels of Support and Resistance

Upside looks minimal, but possibly TVIX could rise to test horizontal resistance as shown.

The gap has practically been filled with support underneath.

60min Chart

Friday, January 24, 2020

SVXY - February 4th - State of the Union Address

As expected Davos marked the turn, and SVXY dropped to test support today.

Because it is an election year, generally, the most important turn dates will be marked by political events.

The next such event is coming on February 4th.

60min Chart

Wednesday, January 15, 2020

$SPX - Davos Switzerland - Jan 21st to 24th

The SPX rally which began in October has nearly exhausted.  The most important event this month is the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland which takes place next week.

Support is building at 3,000.

Daily