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Tuesday, June 14, 2016

XIV - Important Support - Upside Target!

XIV has cooled to retest major turquoise support.  It'll be choppy, but further upside is likely as it works it's way towards the upper fork resistance. 

Short term, there is some resistance in the $28's, and more in the $30 to $32 range.

The larger, longer term trend remains down!

Daily Chart

101 comments:

  1. Why would XIV go to $36 and not simply carry on down to bottom of pink fork $18?

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  2. For XIV the turquoise support is dominant, and price has interacted with it going all the way back to last September.

    It accounts for the high in November and low in February.

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  3. SC , SPX looking good. Great call even though we could have made more money on the UVxy ( exaggerated run ) looking forward for the next moves. :-)
    Thanks again for your efforts and insights.

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  4. I would caution any expectation of a bounce because longer term cycles will negate any significant moves to the upside. Risk is to downside!!!

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    Replies
    1. Hm when do long term cycles bottom

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    2. spx down into 17th up into july 5

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  5. VIX Cycle update coming...

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  6. Replies
    1. Yes, XIV $28 next week, and $29 to $30 by June 30th.

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  7. SC
    Would that $36 target be in july/aug sometime ?

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  8. SC
    if that were the case UVXY would be below $10

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  9. Wow
    that low eh :-) would be nice to buy UVXY at that price :-)
    Yippeee
    Yahoooo

    Thanks SC , seems like SPX almost the green now from todays low :-)

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    Replies
    1. Yes, XIV up 2 days in a row. Yesterday and Tues. It's a "tell" hinting at the coming rally.

      SPX lagged a little but starting to warm up.

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  10. With impulse lower forget about higher highs, there is more to the downside. 21.06 will be just the top a of corrective retracement higher than lower to 2000.

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  11. Wave b up now, and then down for wave c into end of June. July will be up, up, up...just my personal view. Enjoy the day all!
    Click on the link for a detailed Elliot Wave pattern.
    http://tripstrading.com/2016/06/17/sp500-update-trades-strategy/

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  12. XIV holding up pretty well last few days. SC, with $36 target for XIV, do you still see cycles negative for July? Thanks!

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    1. Yes, XIV is looking solid, gradually firming up.

      I think July is going to be mixed. There are some positive and negative spots. So we'll take it one step at a time.

      There is resistance around $30 to $32 for XIV and a few $3 dips off that level would be expected. Once it clears $33 then surge up to $36 very quickly.

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    2. what is your time frame for 30 and 36

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    3. It's going to be a slow grind up. $30 on or around June 30th. $36 late July.

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  13. Replies
    1. yes that.s my target.. then 2036

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    2. could happen im thinkin 1980 then 2230 into october then down to 1700s

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  14. Think so too.
    I’m expecting a short term bounce up 2085-2090-2100, JUN 20-23, inside a longer term downtrend, target 2040 and 1995-2010, JUN 27-30. I have some long positions left from last week, 50% stop loss @ 2061 (Cash Index Low of Friday – 1 point), take profit @ 2085 (50%), trailing stop 1%. Other 50%: stop loss 2049 (Low of JUN 16 – 1 point), take profit 2093 (68%), trailing stop 1%. If possible, I will enter/overweight short positions in the 2085-2100 area, stop loss 2120 + 1, 1st target 2040, 2nd target 2010-1995.
    http://tripstrading.com/2016/06/18/weekend-update-cycles-jun-20-23-27-30-apple-lower-highs-lower-lows-putcall-extremes/

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  15. Surprise! haha.

    SCJune 14, 2016 at 7:07 AM

    "Imo the lows are in place now. Bounce for a few days, though we may retest this level later this week.

    Overall Cycles are up into the next highs June 21st and June 30th. The surprises will come on the upside."

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    Replies
    1. Nice, what do you see after June 21st and XIV $28?

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    2. XIV should find some resistance $28 to $29 and dip into the $27's this week, and up to $31 or $32 next week.

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  16. A short term high is due tomorrow on June 21st. We should see a dip this week, but minor. 15 or 20 points for SPX dip and up to the next high due June 30th.

    There is resistance around 2100, but it is weak resistance. 2110 to 2120 will be stronger resistance, and likely a larger dip off that level.

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  17. it is an 8 td top for the s and p the big question is do we trade sideways or fall hard this week there is a possibility that we fall into Wednesday probably a strong rally into the 28th to 29th then down hard into july 5th we will see

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    Replies
    1. 2080 now strong support. Minimal dip this week.

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  18. these cycles are running 115
    days give or take

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  19. there is a possibility that we bang out 2103

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  20. Hi SC,
    Do you have a book recommendation for your investing style?

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    Replies
    1. There are some good ones though I've mostly invested a significant amount of time. Andrews pitchforks are helpful for identifying support/resistance - which works on every time frame. It's a good idea to keep an eye on common moving averages.

      Cycles are the best and simplest way to understand markets in my view. It's important to look at the relationship between time and price rather than just price alone, and Cycles help to do that.

      There are many different styles and many of them do arrive at the same answers.

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  21. SC
    SPX seems to be heading higher. any thoughts on june 21st High ?
    thanks for all your hard work

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    Replies
    1. Yes, SPX high is due today. Should see some weakness this week. SPX should cool first, then higher next week.

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  22. SC, are you looking to exit XIV today? Market dropped from 2100 to 2083, was that the 15-20 points drop you looking for and now on the way to 2110-2120? Thanks!

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    Replies
    1. May look to take profit today and reenter in the $27's for the next run towards $32.

      SPX should still cool first, then higher next week.

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  23. VXX

    http://mymarketgeometry.com/

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  24. SC
    you may have called it BANG ON again on a high for June 21st.
    lets see what happends.
    IF BREXIT goes thru the markets could head downward spiral

    George Soro ... " Black Friday " ?

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/soros-brexit-could-trigger-black-211830139.html

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  25. Bollinger bands are tight market should drop here

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  26. Great Calls SC and Louis
    i had a vision that i saw SPX below 2079 today was weird when i was refreshing my screen to see status of SPX before trading commenced.

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    Replies
    1. we could go back to 2096 and then drop

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  27. its just amazing how much premium is in spy puts

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    Replies
    1. Everything is out of whack. VIX spike this month was excessive. It does suggest a frothy market which longer term isn't positive.

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  28. Louis , what happends if BREXIT votes out ?

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    Replies
    1. i think the market after july 5th is going much higher no matter what possibly 2180 by october

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    2. i would doubt it highly that they get out of the eu

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    3. why woukld they want to hurt themselves like that

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  29. I wouldn't worry about such things as brexit. There has been crisis after crisis in Europe since 2010, and the market does what it always does, it climbs the wall of worry.

    Cycles are up thus markets are trending higher. There will be wobbles of course.

    Remember when GM went bankrupt. The market rose strongly that day. Y2K etc...

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    Replies
    1. we may get up to 2092 then down to 2060 then up

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  30. i think we dip 20 plus points in s and p

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  31. SC are taking profits or plan to hold on to XIV? thx

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    Replies
    1. If it pops into the $29's will take profits.

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  32. there goes SPX , higher n higher

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  33. SPX high was due yesterday so small dip still likely between now and Monday.

    After Monday next week looks quite positive.

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  34. Wild swings
    great day traders can make some decent money if played right

    Thanks SC for your time and analysis

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  35. XIV found resistance at the pink line as expected. Seeing some cooling.

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  36. SC, XIV dropped to $27s for support as you said, is this the run to $32? Or are you looking to take profits around $29? Thanks!

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    1. Time is running out for a dip, and XIV is about to enter a sweet spot in the Cycle. XIV may see some cooling tomorrow, but I'm holding XIV for $31's.

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    2. $31's next for XIV then another test of $27 again.

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    3. The pink line for XIV is at $29.50 today. Could see some minor cooling off that today/tomorrow if tested.

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  37. Low is due for SPX Cycle tomorrow. Next week looks very positive.

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  38. Great call SC
    How can the SPX cycle be on a low tomorow if its heading higher today, unless you just see a small dip , then back right up again..

    Thanks again

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    Replies
    1. Yes, small dip tomorrow would be ideal, but next week looks explosive up.

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  39. Surprise #2 - upside.

    SCJune 14, 2016 at 7:07 AM

    "Imo the lows are in place now. Bounce for a few days, though we may retest this level later this week.

    Overall Cycles are up into the next highs June 21st and June 30th. The surprises will come on the upside."

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    Replies
    1. This is like bobbing for apples. The price is dunked down, but price keeps floating up again!

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  40. lol SC very true indeed
    Do you think SPX will beat its current high for the year 2132 ?

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    Replies
    1. Yes, SPX slowly rising towards 2150.

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  41. Support building for XIV around $29. Might see $30, dip to $29 and up to $31.

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  42. SPX would likely dip a little on a "positive" brexit vote tomorrow since the Cycle is down tomorrow.

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  43. SC, What do you see for gold?

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    Replies
    1. Gold may have a little upside towards $1350, but I have a Cycle update coming and it's not a pretty picture going forward. Looking to short Silver soon, in July.

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  44. There's a possibility that we could be down hard possibly 2060 area by tomorrow could even be 2045 to 2050

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    Replies
    1. On the same wave - watching for 2040-2045 lower to finish C of a triangle

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  45. $29.50 tested! Still might see $30.

    SCJune 23, 2016 at 6:43 AM

    "The pink line for XIV is at $29.50 today. Could see some minor cooling off that today/tomorrow if tested."

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  46. Just kicking back enjoying the brexit lol.

    We should see some selling pressure tomorrow though.

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  47. There's $30!

    SCJune 23, 2016 at 8:16 AM

    "Support building for XIV around $29. Might see $30, dip to $29 and up to $31."

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  48. SPX 2113!

    SCJune 23, 2016 at 8:34 AM

    "2110 or 2115."

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  49. Going above 2134 tomorrow Friday.

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  50. how low do you see the S&P going tommorow?

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  51. Perfect, starting to see some selling pressure!

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  52. SC
    Would have been god to buy UVXY/VIX
    or are you soley concentrating on XIV.

    Thanks

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    Replies
    1. Well the SPX Cycle low is due tomorrow. Then next high due June 30th.

      What is probable is a mild dip tomorrow. So UVXY not so attractive with Cycle low due and high coming due next week.

      July is going to be volatile though. Charts coming...

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  53. would have been good to have some UVXY / VIX

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  54. SC do you still see 2150 even if we get a brexit?

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  55. Gold has reached $1350 target!

    SCJune 23, 2016 at 9:29 AM

    "Gold may have a little upside towards $1350, but I have a Cycle update coming and it's not a pretty picture going forward. Looking to short Silver soon, in July."

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  56. Important updates coming!!!

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  57. Down hard in 's and p just like predicted

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  58. Markets getting slaughtered everywhere ...

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  59. First important update posted. Additional updates coming for Gold, Silver Cycle, and VIX Cycle!!!

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