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Wednesday, April 13, 2016

UVXY - Geometry - Levels to Watch

UVXY is breaking below support.  Therefore, short term downside is likely in the month of April.  Notice that the downtrend for UVXY is quite shallow though.

The lower turquoise support will probably be tested.  Charts and Cycles suggest UVXY is setting up to form a low over the next 2 weeks and rise sharply in May.

60min Chart

28 comments:

  1. sc, can u also post chart for uvxy how high can it go in may

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    1. Yes, I'll post a chart as April progresses.

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  2. looks like 2100 to 2117 in the cards

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  3. SC, what is your upside target for the spx before the plunge starts to take hold?


    Thank you

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    1. If the white resistance in the SPX model is drawn horizontally, then that resistance is around 2115.

      This type of market could push the limits, but importantly, in the model price never did reach the horizontal resistance on this move. It fell short and failed spectacularly.

      Therefore, resistance is not to be confused with a target. Caution should be exercised!

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  4. The beauty of the SPX model is in it's simplicity. We have narrowly defined entry and exit levels, and can define stop levels with superb risk/reward parameters.

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  5. Remember I've been saying for weeks here, spy 210.55 and Iwm 113.32 will be achieved and then it may be an inflection point.

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  6. XIV over $26 but uvxy still hasn't reached 15-16 target. Is squeezing another couple bucks from XIV possible? $28?

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    1. Might see a dip/wobble tomorrow, but should be a little higher next week.

      SCApril 11, 2016 at 8:44 AM

      "The most significant low this month was April 8th, April 15th showing as a minor low."

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  7. You had suggested there is 0 chance of the market going to all time highs before the crash to 1700s... do you still believe that is the case?

    Thank you

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    Replies
    1. March Cycles looked extremely strong as identified earlier in the year. SPX has reached 2080.

      ckoreyFebruary 17, 2016 at 8:21 PM

      "So you are expecting 2080 after 1780 in March?"


      SCFebruary 17, 2016 at 9:35 PM

      "If not higher. The market will come close to making a new high."

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    2. Cycles suggest a high this month in late April. May pullback and then the next high is due late June/early July and that corresponds with the second red arrow.

      I think it is possible that SPX can see just over 2,100 to 2,115 this month.

      IF there's going to be a new all time high, it would happen in late June/early July, and it would be just a tiny overshoot 2,150 maximum.

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  8. so I guess we see the 1700s sometime around sept - nov ?

    Thank you

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    Replies
    1. That level could be reached as soon as later July, and then continue to head lower.

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  9. A dip for SPX next 1 or 2 days seems quite probable. One Cycle shows a low today, two other Cycles show a low on Tuesday, April 19th.

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  10. Looks like XIV trying to break resistance... Is 30 possible?

    Thinking VIX might crash into 11-12

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    Replies
    1. I do think VIX 12 looks possible.

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  11. Bought 50% UVXY at $15.55. UVXY is at lower turquoise support.

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    Replies
    1. SC, what's you exit target? thx

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    2. Starting to build a position for May. UVXY should see $25 easily, and probably closer to $30.

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  12. SC, Congratulations..

    other people will realize soon... as soon as tomorrow..

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  13. Iwm hit my expected level of 113.32 today, which if you look back to my replies, started when Iwm was at 106s and only a couple of weeks ago, I also called for a possible spy 210.55 and now will throw in a qqq to 114. Just note these levels.

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    Replies
    1. Peter, what levels are you expecting now that these were met?

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  14. if this markets breaks out we could see 2120 2134

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  15. I think the japanese QE and the european QE may have thrown your fractual off.... any thoughts? It sure looks like we're headed for new all time highs

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    Replies
    1. Best to just take it one step at a time. Doubt much will happen in April. May looks bearish.

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