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Wednesday, September 14, 2016

XIV - Ready to Breakout - Inverse Head and Shoulders!

XIV has been flirting with a breakout of a large inverse head and shoulders pattern.  Very bullish situation with the red neckline sloped upwards, and forks pointing much higher.

XIV is testing multiple strong supports, and has room for significant upside into the US elections.  The November target is shown.

Daily Chart

















No sign of a bottom yet for UVXY.  Tremendous downside ahead.

Daily Chart

















149 comments:

  1. VIX has met it's target, down it goes. Back to 11 or 12.

    SCSeptember 2, 2016 at 8:55 AM

    "VIX cooled off to 12 as expected, ready to spike to 17 next week."

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  2. Rally as 'promised'...or maybe just a lucky guess...

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  3. Replies
    1. Up or down. My trend lines say it wants to test 2100

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    2. 2100 would be down, but now we have spoiled the SURPRISE... :(

      Delete
  4. Bigger rally tomorrow...still just guessing...but absolutely not shorting...

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  5. "No sign of a bottom yet for UVXY..."

    Never any bottom for that one...
    What is the green line on the XIV chart?

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  6. Since the USD has given up the 200dma earlier in the year it's yet to hold above it. Once we break out of the triangle (lower is my guess) the market takes off. Most likely after it's announced no interest rate Sept 20-21 http://screencast.com/t/hsUO9uRCDO2

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  7. So, 'guess' we're all in agreement now...the 'surprise move' was another rally...as promised! This one should last all day...maybe fade on Friday. Either way, absolutely not shorting...yet.

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  8. Friday pullback...go figure...just another lucky guess. But shorting beyond today's close (or maybe into Monday's open) is not recommended...just another guess. After all, the Aunt Yellen show is coming to town...

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  9. Its good to be here, very nice post, the content is amazing, keep posting friend it will be very helpful for everyone, Thanks for sharing.. Ways2Capital

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  10. What--an Aunt Yellen rally?!? Just another lucky guess...with a little help from SC and Jay...

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  11. Great Call SC on this 1 so far
    Whats your target on UVXY ? looking at your chart $6 by mid November.

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  12. Vix down to 11 to 12 area...
    Is there a bounce here?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. VIX back to 11 or 12.

      SCSeptember 14, 2016 at 7:13 AM

      "VIX has met it's target, down it goes. Back to 11 or 12."

      Delete
    2. Might see some small bounces, but drift lower into early October for VIX.

      Delete
  13. Hi sc. What is your next week target got Uvxy?

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  14. We should see SPX flirt with 2,200 October 6th.

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  15. UVXY as shown on the chart next area to watch around $10 October 6th.

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  16. XIV up 7 days in a row! Clear breakout of the inverse head and shoulders!!

    Would not be surprising to see a down day soon, but price should drift higher for 2 weeks...

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  17. Looking at the SPX 60min chart from last update, do you still see SPX 2220?

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    Replies
    1. Yes, we should test 2,200 soon, and probably spend some time testing between 2,200 and 2,220.

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    2. Thanks SC! How bearish do you see after Oct 6th? With the low not until the 28th, bears have about 3 weeks, and last time they dropped from 2188 to 2119 in 3 days.

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    3. I'm not expecting much of a dip in October. Three weeks of consolidation in October with further upside to come.

      Delete
  18. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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  19. MArkets takes dip , back to square 1 for now.

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  20. 2095? Just a guess, but we're likely to have another 'surprise' rally starting on Tuesday...maybe lasting into early Oct...just a guess.

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  21. What, a 'surprise' rally?!? Who knew...just beginner's luck...

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  22. SC, keep up the great work!
    What are your thoughts on gold?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Gold and silver are the best shorts of any market.

      However, I may wait until November for optimal short entry.

      Delete
    2. im very intreged, do you have any numbers you can share?

      Delete
  23. HI SC
    anything change in your model ?
    alot of head N Shoulders going on past week

    thanks again

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Next high due October 6th. Everything on track.

      Delete
  24. A higher low, so the rally is still good to go! Just a guess...but it is end of month and quarter. The final high is likely due next week...and likely before the monthly job report is released. Just another guess...

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  25. WHAT--another 'surprise' rally?!?!
    Who knew...after all, everyone is just guessing...maybe some are just better guessers than others...or maybe it's just beginner's luck...once again.

    ReplyDelete
  26. SC, are you looking to take profits on XIV Oct. 6th or wait until Nov?

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    Replies
    1. I'll be looking to take profit around Oct 6th. May look at shorting around that time.

      Delete
  27. Happy Friday
    Market looks strong , only if we had a magic wand :-)

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  28. On the positive side, 2035-2070 is the floor for remainder of year -- with a year close above S&P 2040-50.

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  29. either its trying to break higher or she gonna get slammed
    50 50 lol

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  30. One last gasp 'surprise' rally on the way...just a guess.

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  31. 'Surprise'!!!
    Not likely to go beyond 2070-ish for now though...just a guess.

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  32. SC, do you still see SPX test 2200? Thanks!

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    Replies
    1. Yes, SPX is grinding higher. It'll be choppy this month as it rises to test 2,000 to 2,020.

      Delete
  33. XIV continues to perform strongly. Chart coming with longer term target. Very impressive upside!

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  34. Hi SC
    You mentioned today as a high/turn date is that still the case or are you still waiting for a higher SPX.

    Thanks again

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  35. As guessed, didn't go beyond 2170-ish (lucky guessing...poor typing). Today should end on a solid low...maybe Friday too...but that's just another guess...with a little help from SC's turn dates, and Jay's JayWiz majik...

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  36. Are you still shorting the markets on Oct.6?

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  37. I'm still waiting for higher levels. The market is slowly grinding up. A high is due soon, but unlikely much downside this month. Overall it still looks positive.

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  38. Right now XIV is trading at the orange support. Tomorrow may be interesting. Let's see if it pops.

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  39. Well...at least as of lunchtime (1200 EST, USA), things are looking solidly down...and SP500 never passed 2170-ish...as previously guessed. One can only guess what next week has in store. Maybe SC will share the next anticipated turn date...or maybe Jay's JayWiz site has some guesses...

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  40. Hi SC, looks like a reversal here to the downside. What levels do you see on SPX and XIV on the downside? thx

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. High was due Oct 6th, and so it comes as no surprise that we have now seen some weakness. Low is due right at the end of October.

      However, I see this as a sideways consolidation with the overall Cycle positive into November.

      For XIV $34 to $36 is strong support. For SPX we are basically retesting the September low with further upside to come first half of November.

      SCSeptember 29, 2016 at 11:50 AM

      "Next high due October 6th. Everything on track."

      Delete
    2. Weren't you looking for 2200 SPX?

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    3. The market has been sluggish for sure. Expect a bounce here with a low due end of October. Not much room for downside.

      November does look positive so yes 2200 looks doable.

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  41. Xiv looks solid. On track for $45 in November.

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  42. VIX

    http://mymarketgeometry.com/

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  43. Replies
    1. market found the bottom.
      will go up for a month or several months.

      Delete
  44. Hi SC
    What do you see for gold in November?
    Thank you

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    Replies
    1. I'm looking for a bounce in gold to short. I wouldn't be long because the cycle shows a large move down is about to commence.

      So I'll wait and look for a spot to short.

      Delete
  45. The market has confirmed that it is consolidating sideways.

    There is potential for a large spike up here. It'll either happen now, or if the consolidation continues through Oct then first half November.

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  46. S&P 2070 is a nice target, 200dma and 61 retrace of June move up. Like election year 2012 playbook.

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  47. SC
    Market going higher still.
    When will you sell and buy UVXY
    thanks again

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Plan to switch in the next 2 or 3 weeks.

      Delete
  48. SC, do you still see SPX 2260 possible by Nov 11? After that do you see a big drop next or just consolidation in range again? Thanks!

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    Replies
    1. I don't think it'll make it that high, but a test of around 2,200 is to be expected. After that, yes, large drop.

      Delete
  49. Decided to play it safe. I have a low for SPX due this Friday Oct 28 or Monday Oct 31.

    I doubt it'll come down much. Some cooling is possible this week though. First half November looks more positive than this week.

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    Replies
    1. Would you buy into XIV again for the next run up? thx

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    2. What price level/range are you looking at entry? thx

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  50. VIX
    http://mymarketgeometry.com/

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  51. Hi SC,
    You talked about gold heading down in November, what are you looking for as a high to short?
    Thank you

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  52. 2080-97, premarket one of these days. Gap will be filled. Ha, what about 2036 gap, interesting.

    Be CarefulOctober 20, 2016 at 8:49 AM
    S&P 2070 is a nice target, 200dma and 61 retrace of June move up. Like election year 2012 playbook.

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  53. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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  54. we should hit 2160 or better by friday

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    Replies
    1. 2060 but night not make it gap down 2063 is possible
      looks down into nov 8

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  55. S&P 2060-74, probably in after hours or premarket soon. At some point a rally to 2125.

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  56. Historical mean returns vs mean returns on election years
    https://s13.postimg.org/wkyzvucjr/unknown_2.png

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  57. SC where are you MIA ?
    would have bee great to know to buy XIV before today lol
    keep us posted

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  58. I'm just waiting until after the election. I am expecting larger moves prior to year-end.

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  59. let see what election brings im sitting on side lines

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    Replies
    1. The problem here is that we are currently trading in the middle of a trading range. Yes, I decided to wait for this reason.

      Delete
  60. Let's see if we get a massive spike up!

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  61. looks like a top here if trump wins we will go down hard
    still sitting on sideline right now might take a gamble
    at end of day

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  62. hey Louis
    did you place the correct gamble...
    who money to be made if we did call it ...

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  63. Time to start getting ready for the huge rally!

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  64. XIV getting ready to head much higher.  Charts are coming. 

    I'm hoping XIV can get a little lower for an entry, but even at this price it has a lot of upside. 

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  65. Looking forward to your targets!. thx

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  66. Wave D of an ABCDE wedge up, weekly pattern. NOV 14 is the 35,70,140 and 280 cycle day. Buy, buy, bye

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  67. wild swings and direction ?
    wow worst then the weather

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  68. Gold has been going down and so has OIL
    SC, why haven't we caught these ?

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  69. SC, do you still see Nov 11th as a high and a big drop next? If so, what's the next turn date do you see in your models? Thanks so much!

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    Replies
    1. A high was due early October. The low for SPX was due end of October. It was quite accurate although it did drift lower for a few more days after the end of the month of October.

      A high is due today November 11th. However, let's wait and see. Possibly the high could come in a little late.

      Delete
  70. We are seeing a massive spike up particularly for the Dow. It seems the market can move higher short term, but we should be approaching a high soon.

    SCNovember 8, 2016 at 7:51 AM

    "Let's see if we get a massive spike up!"

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    Replies
    1. Best weekly gains of 2016. The weekly chart still looks quite good too.

      Delete
  71. There is a secondary high due November 21. So may not actually see the high until then.

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  72. SC, is the big drop set for after the 21st then?

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    Replies
    1. Yes, the decline looks likely. Charts and the next Cycle dates are coming.

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    2. Thanks SC, looking forward to the next chart.

      Delete
  73. The DOW already made a new ATH, will the S&P500 and Nasdaq follow soon? http://tripstrading.com/2016/11/11/good-bad-ugly/

    This week, a major cycle date is scheduled (35, 70, 140 and 280 day cycle)...so in my view a Higher Low is expected to continue wave E of a larger weekly wedge ABCDE up, just like in 2015. And then for end of year till mid JAN, the start of a larger crash is expected.

    Keep in mind, the REAL BUBBLE isn't stocks...it's bonds...an outflow of bonds will lead to an inflow in private assets (equities and precious metals)...http://tripstrading.com/2016/10/30/the-real-bubble/

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  74. As long as the S&P500 is able to trade > 2085, I will stay Bullish for the next 70 day cycle into mid JAN 2017.

    Summarized:

    Buy the Dips > 2085

    Add Longs if Break > 2182/94…Target 2210+

    Overweight Shorts < 2085

    Overweight Shorts 2230-75 area….mid JAN.

    http://tripstrading.com/2016/11/12/sp500-feb11-apr-20-jun-28-sep-5-nov-14/

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  75. Sc can u please do chart for gold

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  76. SC, how big of drop you expect? Tom DeMark said at least 11% drop after a high next week.
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/in-wake-of-trump-rally-tom-demark-calls-for-11-stock-market-decline-2016-11-11

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  77. great charts, also since TRUMPY got in the baltic dry index is CRASHING UP. Have a look here ==> http://www.bit.ly/2f7gaUw

    Normally that is a sign shifting will happen in sectors, and make for lots of money to be made. WOW!

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  78. i havent seen any updates on this web site is it still up

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, it is still up haha! The goal is to post updates around major turning points and swings in the market. The charts are still valid, and everything is going according to plan.

      XIV is getting close to the target area. It can take a little more time...

      Delete
  79. Buy the Dips > 2084 for new ATH's into the next Cycle date till mid JAN?

    http://tripstrading.com/2016/11/19/sp500-first-correction-new-time-highs/

    http://tripstrading.com/2016/11/12/sp500-feb11-apr-20-jun-28-sep-5-nov-14/

    ReplyDelete
  80. NOV 26-28 is a 100/100 Bradley Model Time Window...so high odds for a significant High (or Low)

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  81. Sc
    Will you post anymore charts
    Thanks

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  82. anybody buying uvxy here startingh to look interesting

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    Replies
    1. UVXY could see a small pop this week. Doubt anything major yet.

      Delete
  83. Yes, will post charts. Just waiting for prices to reach at or near the targets.

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  84. Replies
    1. XIV looks like it could dip to $40 but I still think a higher target of $48 should be achieved.

      Delete
    2. im not looking for huge pop im looking for 13 14 on uvxy

      Delete
  85. sc can please do chart for gold/silver or gdx

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  86. Based on my Cycle, EW and Pattern Analysis, NOV 26-28 should be a short term High, after which DEC will likely show a zigzag (2150-80-2210-2240) pattern, just as in JUN 2016. JAN 2017 looks about right to overweight short positions for a larger ABC correction.

    http://tripstrading.com/2016/11/24/sp500-elliot-wave-cycles-pattern-recognition/

    ReplyDelete


  87. Short term, as in days, I think we'll get a retest of 2150-80, but into end of DEC, the bias should be to buy the dips. JAN is a different story though...

    http://tripstrading.com/2016/11/29/sp500-cfd-trading-44-ytd-blue-red-pill/

    http://tripstrading.com/2016/11/25/sp500-one-step-back-two-forward/

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  88. A dip seems quite likely during the next week.

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  89. SC , what kinda pop you think will get out of UVXY ?
    thanks again

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  90. i bought uvxy the other day 10.58 and 10,38 do you see 13 to 15 on uvxy like i see

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  91. UVXY looks like it can pop a couple dollars. I think it could pop and see a little lower, but UVXY is the place to focus now for the next 3 months or so. It's starting to become attractive.

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    Replies
    1. UVXY can double or triple in 3 months time frame.

      Delete
    2. will it be after revrse split thou predicted in jan ?

      https://sixfigureinvesting.com/2014/01/uvxy-reverse-split/

      Delete
    3. That is possible. UVXY could see down closer to $7. Upside target of $25.

      Delete
  92. Sc can u pl do a new chart for spx what u expecting

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  93. SC
    you posted the Silver charts
    what about UVXY
    Thanks

    ReplyDelete