Finding the edge in analyzing unique market Cycles.
Sold UVXY $16.50.
Will look to enter again soon. XIV might see a little support from this turquoise line short term.
Hi SC What risk reward is there from selling UVXY unless you think UVXY may go much much lower... ? Your thoughts thanks
I don't expect UVXY to go much lower. Will look to enter again soon.
Is the target still 1950 for SPX in May?
SC, are you looking to buy back in the $15.50 area?
Floor now raised to S&P 2000. Sideways year, again. No major drama.
What will be your re-entry point on UVXY ? thanks
$14's probably. We'll see.
Sc, can u please post silver/gold chart thanks
Yes, I will. Silver Cycle very interesting here!!
Hi!It is amazing what you write.Can you explain, or if you have to do this in past give me the more or less the page fo site, how to learn this kind of things? Some books suggest?What you use is very, very intersting.Thanks for not charge this kind of things.I will try now, follow this blog and learn something.thanksJose
Thank you, well these are many methods. There are some good books for sure though many are just "fluff". There is no substitute for practical experience. Results are proportional to time and efforts. All the best!
Hi SC, lets us know when you plan to buy UVXY , thanks again
SPX moving on up ... who knew UVXY would be this low :-)
Hi SC,Is $29 good exit for XIV or is there still time for more upside?Thanks
It should be nearly exhausted for now, pullback in May. Likely to see higher in June for XIV.
HI SCyour target of $14 was hit for UVXY and now in the $13's wow , impressive.
Bought full position UVXY at $13.90.
High for SPX is due. Turn date today.SCApril 7, 2016 at 11:29 AM"Next High April 28th."
The SPX low for April was due April 8th, and came in April 7th - quite accurate.SCApril 7, 2016 at 10:41 AM"Turn date is due tomorrow April 8th, and so a low is due any time now..."
SPX is making tiny range movements now daily. It's a classic sign of exhaustion.
Sc how high will uvxy go
UVXY should test the levels of early April again in May. $23 to $25.
DAMN, did you hit this one on the head or what!!! Glad I bought more at 14.Crazy GREAT call!!!
Haha, thank you!
The market may still bounce around, but that was a nice initial reaction on the turn day. The cracks in this rally are starting to show..
when do you think uvxy will see the 80s+?
I am expecting the large move to commence in July and carry through the fall, and into the first half next year. Similar to tvix in 2011 the best performance should come once vix starts to really heat up. I'll have posts coming to explain the math.
SC , WOW you nailed it on the turn date April 28th it is , great call , lets see what happens :-)
SC.. what do you have as the next turn date for the LOW?Thank you
The low should come in late May to early June. In this case I have a cluster so that makes it a little tricky. None are dominant. Will therefore lean on the conservative side in terms of timing.
I will post the best candidates soon for dates though anyway.
Sc. Lot of cycles guys saying end of june or july 5 as bug low. Rally. And then down again. They r not expecting all time jigh in june
Hi rose2797, if u dun mind, could u email me the other cycle guys ur following? ellissiaw [at] gmail.com Many thanks!
I also got the same from a cycle guy in RL, of a lower high in June. And then a steady downtrend but not to feb low, all the way to Oct.After which we rally steadily.
check your email
wow, great call SC! Is UVXY $23-$25 more of conservative target, do you still see getting to $30? Thanks!
UVXY $28 to $30 maximum is possible though a more aggressive target.
SC, are you going to trade around the positions or hold til the next turn date?Thank you!
I plan to simply hold until late May at least or early June.
Hi SC, sorry if my qn seem dumb (since u ans about UVXY)......Do you have any specific target for VXX?Thanks!
Equivalent target for VXX May/early June $20 to $21.
SPX Cycle shows the following dates. All these turn dates show as lows. May 16th, May 22nd, June 2nd and June 11th.The cluster of lows suggests choppy but down into late May to early June low.
Do u see a bounce up in June and up until what level for SPX? Thanks!
Decline in May to 2,000 give or take, and in June rally to 2115 SPX major resistance possible overthrow to 2150.
What would be the next turn date for high? Thanks! Keep up the amazing work!
Hi SC, based on your cycle lows, could it still probable we rally into OPEX week (16th to 20th) then we get the lows we crave by 2th June? Thanks!
andre on trader-talk, who is very good, had said, down into april 29, bounce into may 2 and down into early july 5
Happy Friday SCAwesome call , keep up the great work :-)
UVXY is flirting with a breakout of the blue line around $18.75. Turquoise resistance is just above that level though around $20.Around $20 I would consider taking some profit next week.
For SPX the horizontal resistance has proven to be extremely strong, and we can see the clear reaction.Confirmation of the model...
Hi SC,SPX still closed >2061 today... Do you think we will go ATH or new ATH before going down again?Thanks!
Cycles are down for SPX this month.
DOW 2001?? Looks similar...https://northmantrader.files.wordpress.com/2014/04/djia47.png
Thank you! Yes, agree.
SC, what level do you see UVXY pullback to after $20? Thanks!
Resistance rising now around $21.
Sc. People talking silver going to 25. Gold to 1400. Do u think it will happen now
No, the Silver Cycle is just about to turn bearish, very bearish...Cycle update coming.
How about gold?
Gold minor upside possible, but the downside will be huge.
UVXY tested and cooled off from the blue line reached Friday.Next resistance around $21.
SCDo you think Gold and Oil are turning bearish aswell.
Not bearish quite yet on Silver, Gold, upside limited though.Oil should cool this month and form a high in late June.
I love your blo, keep up the great work! Can you put an approx number to limit up side in gold?
Thank you! Might see $1350, but the downside will be huge according to the Cycle.
Thanks SCLittle sad to see UVXY down this much today , but do look forward to the next $21 resistance.thanks again
SC,Last chance to exit XIV or can we still hit $30?Thanks
May looks bearish. Low $20's next for XIV, then can see $30 to $32 late June.
This blog doing same thing it did in 2013. But market will go up, against it, again. The global paradigm has forever changed. It's happening.
The weekly and monthly charts look extremely bearish! XIV about to see a death cross on the weekly chart...
Be Careful - and you are doing the same thing you did in 2013. Negative comments without any supporting evidence.
SC, are you still looking to take profits if UVXY $21 this week? Thanks!
Maybe, it should see higher than that anyways. That is just a level of resistance.
@SC, so... what's the target ur looking at for UVXY and VXX then?Do u think we culd already hit 21 by this and next week?
UVXY should see give or take $23 to $25.
SC, $23-$25, do you mean this week or by late May? Thanks you!
Hi SC, does that mean the equivalent SPX target is revised to 1950...? VXX to 22 to 24?Thanks!
A target around 2,000 give or take still looks about right.
Any thoughts on $$M1?
The chart for M1 looks quite toppy, and that type of formation is prone to a "sudden drop". 10 to 15% drop seems possible.
But what is it telling us? That the trend of capital inflows from overseas is strong?
Hi SC, I hope you're doing well. Any view on the dollar? I am surprised you never discuss the DXY. Moves are currently quite interesting. Thanks;all the best
Dollar still quite bullish. It should act as a safe haven.
Is the downside for gold a break to new lows or just a retest of previous low?
The next move for Gold is one of the most negative and longest time down in the Cycle.
what going on with vix products, these hedge funds wont let them go up
Hi SC,I've no interest/position in gold whatsoever.. But... it does correlate to alot of things.I caught a comment u made about gold in March, just hoping you can clarify as it is confusing:SCMarch 16, 2016 at 10:55 AM"The Cycle is still bullish for Gold for probably several more months. The pullbacks will likely be minor for Gold during this time frame.Silver is working towards my $17 target. The pullbacks in Silver are more pronounced than Gold which is interesting."
SC, when and at what price do you think gold will peak before beginning its decline in the cycles?Also, when do you expect gold to bottom in this negative cycle?
Gold may not peak until June, but I consider it toppy as the positive Cycle that began in December, as I pointed out then, is finishing. $1,350 or so.The next down Cycle is deep and long. Gold can drop $600 or $700 and I expect that to take about a year. Steady down with no bounces.
Hi SC, has there been any chance your ever wrong before in your calls?
I think I must take heed of your advice. It is a very bold advice, considering the amount of bullish voices out there and your track record for the past few months.Thank you.
Silver has moved according to the cycle and has met the target. Next target is $6.50. The silver cycle has been extremely accurate.
will silver start a bull run after that?
Yes, it will.
SC, what is the catalyst for gold to fall? The Fed raising short term interest rates from as early as June 14th/15th?
The silver cycle shows a high coming due. Possibly one more run. It is similar to 2008. Gold dropped first and the market followed.
Gold ended 2008 nearly even after a summer dip..specs are in gold at highest level since 2011 and open interest is high....The fed will have to raise a lot to get gold to 800. 3/4 of a point... it will not happen, expect negative rates, more printing....
"specs are in Gold at the highest level since 2011" That is bearish for Gold, same as it was bearish for Gold in 2011.
sc, uvxy is just 17, can u comment , spx already at 2035
UVXY has been held back by the blue resistance, but is consolidating for a spike up. The SPX Cycle low is not for weeks yet. There is more downside coming for SPX, and the plunge off the horizontal resistance for SPX has confirmed the model.TVIX did exactly the same thing in 2011. It was very sluggish at first, surprisingly so, and then accelerated and shot up 700%.
SC,i remember that move...tvix was around $15 & less than 6 weeks later ...$120! Are you expecting a 700% move in UVXY or just a brief bounce to 23-35?I thought the BIG ONE would see UVXY around $100 but not until the fall?
So it's still 21-23 for UVXY/VXX by late May?This is getting very interesting. ..
Just a pop this month for UVXY. The Major move due to start late June to early July.The move for UVXY should be larger than that TVIX move but also take longer, probably into next year.
SC, what do you think about VMAX and VMIN, two new VIX products? thx
The structure is different. They hold etfs in addition to vix futures directly.
In some situations that could be useful as a way to diversify between fund managers. For example, in the past there have been situations when creation units were suspended, and performance became unpredictable as a result.
SC, everyone expecting right shoulder on spx around 2080, but if you look at vix , it is pinching to explode upwardshttp://stockcharts.com/public/1819606
Cute little bear cubs! Cant get it below 2040.
I will be very bullish when I see confidence being shaken in US treasury bonds/any US govt debts and that money start to flow out in panic.I don't discount another ATH or a new ATH. But it won't be sustainable with BREXIT and so many months & FOMCs before election.The best word to describe the situation today is we are churning, not a convicted rallying.
Rally will close it green above 2050, and that's that for the pullback.
SCI really appreciate your blog.I was wondering if you could help me understand the following:If gold is to hit around $1340, would the s$p follow it up? Just going off your comment that gold would go down and the market would follow.
Basically I think Gold should top first, and SPX likely with a delayed afterwards.I think Gold could top this month to early June. SPX late June to early July.
SC, does UVXY actions concern you? Last week's high was $18.50 and this week is around $17.50 with SPX lower. And today it even turned negative before market opened, and was down more than 3% with SPX still in the red.
Yes, the underperformance relative to SPX movement is clear, and is evidence of excessive complacency. It is slowly consolidating, and getting ready to pop.
@joed Dun get it. So new lows? what's your target?
gold should drop 90 bucks off high and then rally
2080 plus coming in s and p and 100 points down in gold
SC, You keep changing your tune with your posts and comments, Your cycles are clearly off and being an election year cycles are probably not the thing to use....2008 redux is in play
Hi SC , any comments on the recent drop in UVXY and runup of SPX ?Thank-you
SC, SPX is about to touch 2080.. Do you see a pull back towards the end of the week or next?
I am not SC..I think the market could go up toward the end of this week
Most importantly, SPX has simply failed at the horizontal resistance 2,115 as shown on the chart. The level has proven to be extremely strong resistance.
SPX looks extremely weak. For SPX at best it can attempt to grind along and flatten out.
SC, but SPX has gone up and UVXY has dipped to new lows. Would have been to catch it at these levels..
Hi SC, how low can UVXY and VXX go then?
I do expect UVXY to be lower by end of June.
You could have bought it at 13.29 at the time of this post rather than 13.90.
SC,XIV $30-32 before $20?
$33 to $34 would be a test of Sept to Nov highs.
Hello SC,Just to be clear with the readers. What is you average purchase price of UVXY? Do you have a stop loss? Timing is key when ones invests in this kind of product and so far May does not look bearish. All the best, I hope your trade will be sucessful.
$13.90. Stop at $12.This is an unusual situation, but one I am pleased to see unfolding. SPX is declining but UVXY is also declining. So in that respect, I do agree the issue is timing. SPX is churning which burns up time, and meanwhile UVXY declines.Yes, it is time sensitive.
SC, can it break 13, then there will be reverse split
http://stockcharts.com/public/1610144sc, can u look plat this, uvxy, bolinger band very tight
Thank you, I doubt we are ready for anything major quite yet. The bigger picture is developing unfolding nicely though...
SC, do you still see UVXY $23-25 by early June or lower targets now? Thanks!
Given the sluggishness of UVXY it may just be best to look at taking profit on UVXY soon.
SC, what level are you looking a exiting UVXY? thx
Let's see how it looks on May 16th.
First low in the cluster for SPX is coming due on or around 16th. SPX choppy and down as expected!Still on track for 1980 to 2,000 SPX. I do think there will be another bounce after May 16th so will be looking to take profit next few days. SCApril 29, 2016 at 6:46 AM"SPX Cycle shows the following dates. All these turn dates show as lows. May 16th, May 22nd, June 2nd and June 11th.The cluster of lows suggests choppy but down into late May to early June low."
UVXY hasn't been the best vehicle to use on this particular move though could have had a nice profit at $18. The reason is due to the chop, and churning, and the extreme complacency which is setting in amongst participants.However, given the model I expect the gains will increase dramatically as it progresses!
Sc. If it hits 18. How much will it retrace. Also if u look at qid and sds charts they r making w bottoms
SC r u expecting high in spx on july 5, as lot of people saying june15-july5 as low
Cycle lows for SPX June 2nd and June 11th. Cycle highs for SPX June 30th and July 15th.
How does it work?1) So which cycle low is the REAL final low?2) Is it possible 1 of the cycle low is HIGHER than 1 of the Cycle high?
It is all good SC. So you are still long UVXY with an entry price at $13.90 (more or less) and you are going to stay long until the end of May? If so, what is your downside on SPX that would make you want to take a profit on your long UVXY?All the best
For SPX it is straightforward. SPX hit the horizontal resistance and is declining as expected. There will be 2 or 3 bounces along the way, but should see 2,000 give or take in coming weeks.
For UVXY it is more complex. The decline in SPX is slow and choppy and so holding UVXY is inefficient. Best to be nimble for now, and look to enter/exit with the stair step down movement. Yes, there will be the time to hold, but not until probably July.
Huston, we have a problem..."Be Careful" said 2050 was the low. Then again, "SC" called for a waterfall crash that played out the exact opposite. Hmmm...perhaps we rally into OpEx, then see lower lows into months end. Hey, why not? After all, only the Lord...and Aunt Yellen...really 'know' what will actually happen...everyone else is simply offering an educated guess. Some more successfully than others...
Are you still looking to sell UVXY on the 16th, how big of a bounce you are expecting? Thank you!
SC, is turn date May 22nd a low or high?
Personally, I expect another abcde wave down (wave ii-c) into the 2000-20 area, MAY 25 whoch is a 50% retracement in time (feb 10-apr20). So I would say, sell the rips < 2085 for target 2020 end of may. After may, we should expect wave iii of V up, usually the largest and should top > 2300 last quarter. http://tripstrading.com/2016/05/14/sp500-strategy-update-8/http://tripstrading.com/track-record-trips-alert/http://tripstrading.com/free-reports-2/
Ok. There is your May 16 bounce call. Now let's see if your 1980-2000 call comes to fruition.
More like guesses, not educated guesses. 2 closes above 2074 or below 2040 should sway the market further in either direction.
why have there not been any comments lately? Is the site having issues?
Because no one knows what to post... UVXY is a beast and have proven otherwise in terms of time frame again and again on educated guess since last mid of March..
Choppy and down as expected. It's been a gradual decline from April. Cycles have been accurate though it's not very exciting price action.SCApril 29, 2016 at 6:46 AM"SPX Cycle shows the following dates. All these turn dates show as lows. May 16th, May 22nd, June 2nd and June 11th.The cluster of lows suggests choppy but down into late May to early June low."
I'm simply waiting for the low due May 22nd. Low on the 23rd likely.Updates coming soon.
SC, do you plan to exit UVXY shortly? thx
Looking good , lets see if SPX plunges Monday morning :-)
Sc, xiv broke trendline. It can bounce back tp 29 or so but going back tp 32 to 34 looks difficult
Looks like an OpEx rally to me...who woulda "guessed" that. Maybe it just keeps on going for a while, too. But that's just a guess.
I agree with SC, a Low for the S&P500 is due anytime, 2020-1996. SC mentions MAY 22/23, I would prefer a Low for wave ii down of V up on MAY 25, which is the 50% retracement in time (35 days) of wave i up of V up (FEB 10-APR 20=70 days). Did you also notice the same pattern of wave ii-a down (abcde) and the current wave ii-c? Also an abcde pattern, of which d seems finished. If we close above the 2080, short term shorts should be closed. http://tripstrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/SP500-April-2016.pdfhttp://tripstrading.com/track-record-trips-alert/http://tripstrading.com/free-reports/
Not so fast the low for "wave ii down of V up" will be in September.This is just wave A, hurst cycles 20 week cycle low already behind us 19.05.
I agree...I was expecting a change in Trend for MAY 25, at first I was focused on a Low, but since the Low was set at MAY 19, and now MaY 25 is up, it seems like it is wave ii-b that is forming a high at may 25. If correct, that would indicate that into day 70, which is june 28, will still be bearish to finish wave ii-c.
SC, what are your thoughts about Gold .. Would this continue to go up, even if interest rate might rises in June 2016.. I would like to know thoughts of other participants of this blog..
Gold/Silver may form a high late June. Will be looking to short Silver. Will post an update.
UVXY should be ready to pop again soon to $14's. Stop at $11.00.
Will post important updates soon, just waiting for this decline in SPX from April to finish - next week.
Sc are you expecting new high in spx, higher than 2134 around july 5
No, let me explain in detail with the update coming shortly. All the next moves will be on the chart.The action is about to heat up with larger, cleaner moves rather than the chop we have seen lately.
wheres your update? Did u post yet?
Not yet, waiting for the low to form. I prefer to update at turning points in the market.
i wouldnt buy gold till after rate hike
going to cash
gld will fill the 112.38 gap feb 5th 2016 the question is when
The FOMC and "no" Brexit vote are the main dates.....June 15-23. So basically rally for next 4 weeks. 20 point zigzagging. S&P 1989 gap to contain drops until election (7% range roughly). Higher low before election results. On the Clinton win...market should stay above 2043 at close of year.
SC, xiv is outside daily Bollinger band today
Cycles have been accurate with the low on May 23nd, and then a significant up day on the 24th exactly when we would expect it.
Cycles are now down until June 3rd though could see a low as early as Monday. This latest pop for SPX should collapse just as fast as it went up. 2030's or 2040's soon.
What about June 11? Is it up? Or down?
Next low June 2nd. June 11 is a low, probably a higher low.Cycles are up after June 2nd.
Any chance your June 2 low is inverting to a high?
SC, can u please post the new charts
Pressure to upside. Sideways to unwind overbought. 2100s next. Up.Up.Up.
Rally kept going...who knew? Just a lucky 'guess' I guess. Wonder what's next with Aunt Yellen and Uncle Druggy on stage soon? "SC" guessing on a Bradley date..."Be Careful" guessing on a Crooked Hillary win. Maybe the FED still has your back...and we continue higher in June. Hey, why not? After all, it's just another 'guess'...
Nobody knows, besides the fact that central banks should/will keep us biased bullish...but not for the short term in my view. A scenario analysis of MAY 25 = 35 day cycle, a short term High?http://tripstrading.com/2016/05/26/scenario-analysis/