Finding the edge in analyzing unique market Cycles.
SPX did blow sky high. Once the red line broke, XIV melted up.SCFebruary 9, 2016 at 7:04 AM"SPX rally time! It's about to blow sky high. Buckle up!!"
What is concerning now is that the melt up is approaching a potential level for reversal, with substantial downside possible to the lower white trendline which is sloped downward.
There are some unusual things occurring that tend to suggest that this plays out with the reversal. Check out the McClellan Oscillator! It hasn't been this high since 2008, 2009.Also just simple things too. Notice that both the 200 and 50 dma for SPX are declining steeply. More so than in October 2015.
Failure is not an option...Well done, SC. Pretzel Logic shows a similar path...and yes, NYMO is at an insane level...but lingering unknowns are next week's ECB followed by FOMC.
SC, we are a bit early, but do you see we topped this morning, and now to your next target 1840?
Not ready for the market to reverse yet. VIX looks like it can see lower, but once it bottoms it'll pop to 18 to 20.
only 18 to 20, with the SPX target 1840?
It's best to take things one step at a time. A high looks likely to form this month, and a reversal. We can review as things progress.
It's best to keep an open mind too. Just looking objectively at this broadening pattern, a high and reversal looks likely in any case. Sometimes though only a partial decline occurs where price drops off the top white trendline and then regroups and breaks out to the upside.Either way doesn't really matter right now because that is just a question of how much downside. We can address that question later.
So I assume we are no longer going to 1840 - 1860 area?
I just think it's best here to let this rally play out and define a high before looking at downside targets.
Are you holding your long UVXY position implemented at 33.50?
Decided to stop out.
rough 3 days, where u think UVXY bottoms?
Sold UVXY at $29.00.
Seems early still. Will look for another entry later.
I think you are right, we have a small pullback now, then more up before the big down. Don't see us getting over 2020 though.
Thank you, Sqroot. It needs a little more time and price. A week or so it should be ready.
SC,First: thanks for your regular updates. You did a great job lately. Now you're in doubt.Would you mind taking a look at this long term chart of the S&P future?You're eyes are far better trained in pattern recognition then mine. Nevertheless, this is what caught my attention for some time now.The 3 angels, coming up from zero, did a nice job so far. Friday the market stopped exactly at the angel. When you compare this to 2011, we are -at least in my opinion- not after the august meltdown, but in the last stage before this actually happens. I've put two arrows on the chart: compare them yourself. We should probably have a descent overshoot, just like in june 2011 and then..Besides: October 11, 2007 - March 6, 2009= 512 Calendar Days; 5 x 512= 2560 CD and October 11, 2007 + 2560 CD= October 14, 2014. Off by one day. So March 6, 2009 + 2560 CD= March 9, 2016. Plus or minus one day.If you measure angels from the top October 2007 to March 6, 2009, to the exact high and low of that day and add them together = 4,88. Divide by 2= 244. Count back from March 9, 2016, 244 weeks, and you come up with July 6, 2011. Again one day before the high. Perhaps far fetched by your standards, but go back again twice 244 weeks and you end up with february 27, 2002. Sort of pattern like 2011. In short order: although youre timing may have been slightly off (just as this one may have in store), your original idea still looks sound and promising.https://www.mupload.nl/img/s4fb6i8ftly.jpg
Thank you, nice chart. What stands out the most to me right now in the long term charts is the rounded topping formation in the S&P that has been forming for several years now.The math is interesting, for sure. Thanks again!
Btw, I do agree, the long term charts give the best perspective right now.
I have a weekly chart for SPX that I'll post soon. It looks quite ominous...
Peter Brandt agrees with me --- https://twitter.com/PeterLBrandt/status/706503894491226112
Hi SCSeems like OIL has bottomed and heading up , will you be a buyer of UWTI/HOU or wait. thanks again for your time and analysis
Oil is getting pricey at this level though it'll probably see a few dollars higher. Not interested at this level. I am monitoring Oil and we will see how it shapes up in the months ahead. Oil is still closely correlated to SPX which is also getting pricey.
New chart posted!