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Wednesday, May 24, 2017

$SPX - Before/After - Update

SPX made a V-bottom as anticipated, and has traded back to horizontal resistance once again.  What is next?

Expect to see an overthrow of horizontal resistance, and a washout low. 

60min Chart

















Before:

May 1, 2017 analysis:

"SPX has spiked up to test 2,400 as anticipated. 

However, the spike has been too much and too fast.  The gap is likely to fill next as shown on the chart.

The roller coaster to continue..."


60min Chart
















Monday, May 1, 2017

XIV - White Trendline Backtest Complete!

XIV has backtested the white trendline as anticipated in April analysis.

Next, XIV should cool off with a dip at least to test mid-fork support.  Whipsaws are expected to continue. 

Daily Chart
















Before:

April 16, 2017 Analysis:

"XIV tested the orange channel support last week.

Next, a spike up is anticipated for XIV to backtest the white trendline.  The spike up is expected to start gradually this coming week, and intensify as month-end April approaches."


Daily Chart

















Wednesday, April 26, 2017

$SPX - Wall of Resistance Reached!

SPX has spiked up to test 2,400 as anticipated. 

However, the spike has been too much and too fast.  The gap is likely to fill next as shown on the chart.

The roller coaster to continue...

60min Chart
















Before:

April 10, 2017 analysis:

"SPX should be ready this week for another attempt to break channel resistance.  The next strong resistance is located at 2,400 which is likely to be tested this month."

60min Chart

















Sunday, April 16, 2017

XIV - Important Update!

XIV has fallen out of the white channel, and is now trading in the orange channel.  XIV tested the orange channel support last week.

Next, a spike up is anticipated for XIV to backtest the white trendline.  The spike up is expected to start gradually this coming week, and intensify as month-end April approaches.

Daily Chart
















Before:

March 18, 2017 analysis:

XIV has reached it's short term target, and a pullback is due.  XIV has been trading in the white channel, but the slope is too steep, and appears unsustainable.

A pullback to the orange channel with a more gradual slope is likely to occur next.


Daily Chart
















Wednesday, April 12, 2017

XIV - Before/After - Next Targets

XIV has fallen out of the white channel, and is now trading in the orange channel with a more reasonable slope.  XIV is nearing the orange channel support. 

There should be a bounce and lower low. 

Daily Chart
















Before:

March 18, 2017 analysis:

XIV has reached it's short term target, and a pullback is due.  XIV has been trading in the white channel, but the slope is too steep, and appears unsustainable.

A pullback to the orange channel with a more gradual slope is likely to occur next.


Daily Chart
















Monday, April 10, 2017

$SPX - 2,400 Horizontal Resistance

SPX attempted to break out of the channel coming into the April 6th turn date.  Price was not quite strong enough to break it at that time and has cooled for another attempt.

SPX should be ready this week for another attempt to break channel resistance.  The next strong resistance is located at 2,400 which is likely to be tested this month. 

60min Chart
















Friday, April 7, 2017

UVXY - Mathematically Perfect

UVXY rose to a target defined mathematically.  Price was attracted by magnet to the target area in perfect price and time.

Support for UVXY is currently in the $14's.  Whipsaws down and up are expected to intensify as the month of April progresses.

30min Chart

Saturday, March 18, 2017

XIV - Pullback Due - Short Term Targets

XIV has reached it's short term target, and a pullback is due.  XIV has been trading in the white channel, but the slope is too steep, and appears unsustainable.

A pullback to the orange channel with a more gradual slope is likely to occur next.

Daily Chart

Friday, March 3, 2017

XIV - Upside Going Parabolic!

The movement in volatility is unprecedented.  XIV has broken above channel resistance, and is configuring into a parabolic melt up. 

Complacency is going parabolic which ultimately is extremely bearish for the S&P 500.  In fact, it confirms a major topping process is underway for the S&P 500. 
      
3day Chart

















Parabolic XIV 2017 Model:


Saturday, February 18, 2017

$SPX - Short Term Targets and Timing - 2017 Bear Market Cycle

Cycles and models show that the Bull Market for SPX since 2009 is terminating at red resistance. 

Price can grind higher in the months ahead though as the topping process progresses.  The model shows that the topping process will be characterized by whipsaws and chop.

The topping process is shown forming as a double top with completion estimated in the summer of 2017.   

Daily Chart

















SPX - 2017 Top Detailed Model:



















Wednesday, February 15, 2017

XIV - Channels with Measured Move

XIV melted up once it broke above channel resistance.  Resistance becomes support for the short term anyway. 

Long term channels with a measured move is shown.

3-day Chart

Saturday, February 11, 2017

$SPX - 2017 Cycle - Bull Market is Over

The Bull Market from 2009 is terminating at red resistance. 

A Bear Market is defined as a decline of greater than 20% from the high.  According to the Cycle a decline of greater than 20% is forecast to occur next. 

The 2017 Bear Market is initiating.    

2-day Chart

















2017 Bear Market Cycle:



















Sunday, January 22, 2017

XIV - Before/After Cycle Update

XIV is flirting with the orange target identified in September analysis. As hypothesized in September, once the red neckline was broken, price melted up.

The orange line should act as resistance short term.  XIV could still see higher over the next month, but is stretching towards an important high.  February 22nd may be the most important turn date.

After:

Daily Chart

















Before:

September 14th, 2016:

"XIV has been flirting with a breakout of a large inverse head and shoulders pattern.  Very bullish situation with the red neckline sloped upwards, and forks pointing much higher."

Daily Chart