$SPX - Deja Vu Cycle Update

S&P futures fell after the market closed on Friday, and came close enough to testing the equivalent of the red trendline.  The most likely conclusion is that the sharp rally phase is already complete.

However, a secondary high is still likely to come in January as shown on the Deja Vu Cycle.    

60min Chart

Deja Vu Cycle from 2011:

Daily Chart

$SPX - Final Surge Up Next!

According to the Cycle there should be a powerful surge up (short term only) next.  The Deja Vu Cycle suggests a final surge up for SPX to complete the sharp rally phase from November. 

Timing for completion is estimated around January 4th +/-.

The bigger picture Deja Vu Cycle must always be respected.

30min Chart

 

Deja Vu Cycle from 2011:

Notice the placement of the red trendline! 

Daily Chart

Current Deja Vu Cycle for SPY:

Notice that SPY is still well above the red trendline!

Weekly Chart

 

$SPX - Sharp Rally Phase and VIX

The Deja Vu Cycle suggests a final spike up for SPX could occur soon to complete the sharp rally phase from the November low. 

The yellow arrow is shown to compare SPX with the location in the bigger picture Deja Vu Cycle.

VIX has been making higher highs since August.  VIX briefly traded above October/November levels on Friday.  In contrast, SPX is at much higher levels than the 1343 SPX November low. 

The behaviour of the VIX is further evidence to support the Deja Vu Cycle.  There was no fear in November during the gradual decline phase for SPX, but now fear is rising with SPX.

60min Chart

 




Bigger Picture:

Deja Vu Cycle from 2011:

 

Daily Chart

 

UVXY has been testing the lower fork and reached the green line on Friday.  UVXY is still within the downtrending fork.   

60min Chart

VIX popped on Friday, but then settled into the close. 

More importantly, notice that VIX bottomed in August, and has been making higher highs and higher lows since that time. 

VIX briefly traded above October/November levels on Friday with SPX closing almost 90 points higher than the November low for SPX. 

Daily Chart

$SPX - Testing Support

SPX has cooled off and is due to test supports this week.  Additional time spent in re-testing support is probable this week. 

30min Chart

$SPX - Deja Vu Cycle Update

Once the resistance area was broken, SPX pushed up and reached the short term target zone.  In fact, it was exceeded slightly, and right on time.  There is room in the Deja Vu Cycle for a dip and consolidation next.  A number of supports rest below. 

After some cooling off next, SPX may spike up quite strongly later this month according to this Cycle to complete the sharp rally phase. 

30min Chart

Deja Vu Cycle from 2011:

Daily Chart

SPY Deja Vu Cycle 2012:

Weekly Chart





$SPX - December Plan Updated

While dips may still be possible this upcoming week, the downside target area was practically tested already.  That may have been close enough.  If so, then dips may only be minor going forward with a relatively sideways market next.

Overall, the sharp rally phase is likely to continue for weeks to come.  Testing of the broadening top formation line is coming into striking distance. 

Equal timing and price measurements can be estimated with measured moves.

SPX may be at the yellow arrow in the Deja Vu cycle.  The red trendline is of critical importance.

60min Chart

Deja Vu Cycle from 2011:

Daily Chart

UVXY closed Friday testing the lower channel fork.  It may still bounce around, but when it drops below, then another final leg down looks likely soon.  It is early, though can start to look at preliminary estimates. 

The green line should be important in the future.

60min Chart

$SPX - December Plan

The targeted band of resistance was reached for SPX last week.  Price stalled at that level. 

Therefore, a dip is likely this week, and unlike the last brief dip (Tuesday/Wednesday last week) this one may spend 3-4 days time near a low around the target area 1390 (+/-).

30min Chart

The short term trend remains up.  There will be dips.  The sharp rally phase is anticipated to be underway for weeks to come.

Of critical importance is the red trendline.  Compare the red trendlines in this chart and on the following Deja Vu cycle.

2hour Chart 

Deja Vu Cycle:

In the Deja Vu cycle, SPX is currently trading at the yellow arrow. 

Once the red trendline breaks, then SPX becomes extremely dangerous.

Daily Chart

5-Year Cycle Update:

In the bigger picture, SPX is struggling at the midfork resistance, and was rejected again in September.  The 5-year cycle was due officially in October though it can come in early or late.

Even though the short term trend remains up, and the sharp rally phase continues, it is a requirement going forward to use caution. 

In the bigger picture, large cycles are due, and support is dramatically lower. 

7day Chart

 

$SPX - Short Term Update

In terms of the big picture, the sharp rally phase continues, and should trend higher for weeks to come.  There will be weak spots along the way though. 

The Deja Vu pattern suggests that SPX is likely to rattle up and down mostly within the top half of the pink fork for several more weeks.  There are spots above that could be tested soon.

As well, dips to test the pink midfork are probable in December.  This week could finish strong with possible weakness early next week.  

30min Chart

Silver Crash - SPY Deja Vu Cycle

History first:

September 23, 2011:

"This has been an historically awful day for precious metals.

Here’s just how grim the selloff in silver was today:
The $6.49, 18% decline to $30.05 an ounce (that’s the September contract) was the worst dollar loss
since January 22, 1980 and the worst percentage loss since April 27, 1987.

It was the second-biggest dollar loss in history and the fifth-largest percentage loss in history.
Silver has tumbled 26% this week."

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/09/23/silver-has-its-worst-day-since-1987/


Will 2011 Silver history rhyme/repeat with the SPY Deja Vu Cycle continuing through the phases? 

Wait and see in coming weeks/months....

Weekly Chart

Anatomy of the September 2011 Silver Crash:

Daily Chart

 



A closer look at SPY:

 

Daily Chart

 

A closer look at Silver:

 

60min Chart

$SPX - Surprise Rally Update

From the geometry it is clear why SPX bottomed at the price level that it did.  This configuration should prove helpful now in defining support and resistance levels. 

The surprise rally phase commenced for SPX with strength, and price is nearing the first target area outlined in previous analysis.

A moderate dip to around the pink midfork is likely once the target zone above is tested.  SPX may rattle up and down several times to consolidate in the upper half of the pink fork before advancing much.            

2hour Chart

UVXY - Symmetry Update - Decline to #2

The symmetrical pattern continues to play out for UVXY.  The combination of forks with exact geometry contained price action nicely.  Sideways consolidation completed with a failure at multiple resistances.  Decline to #2 is anticipated to be underway.  It could take several weeks time to fully complete with bounces along the way down.

VIX did not spike last week, and that was an important clue to confirm the surprise rally for SPX. 

UVXY symmetry suggests to be prepared for a wild ride in December markets!  Once UVXY reaches #4 in the symmetry, then larger cycles come into the picture as will be explained...

60min Chart

 

Before:

"A comparison is being made between the white circles, and the symmetry suggests there is some downside coming for UVXY to #2."

60min Chart

$SPX - Gradual Decline Phase Complete

The orange support from October 29th analysis was reached last week.  This is anticipated to be a very strong level of support.  Therefore, the gradual decline phase since mid-September should now be complete. 

A rally phase is the next step according to the big picture outlook for SPX.

Short term, a bounce to test just above the white trendline may occur shortly.  Ultimately the upper boundary of the turquoise broadening top formation may be reached during the big picture rally phase. 

2hour Chart

$SPX - Surprise November Rally

There may be soft spots early next week still.  However, the gradual decline phase for SPX should transition into a strong short term rally phase soon.  

Positive short term cycles for November suggest that a surge up soon could be surprisingly strong.

While this short term outlook may seem positive, remember overall, in the bigger picture, the process is anticipated to be a broadening top formation that defines a major top.        

60min Chart

 

UVXY thoroughly tested resistance, but it did hold, and the fact that UVXY plunged last week is compelling evidence that SPX is setting up for a sharp rally on a short term basis. 

Notice that the turquoise and orange fork geometry match up exactly for UVXY.  There is interesting symmetry in place.  The symmetry should provide helpful insight into the next short term moves.

A comparison is being made between the white circles, and the symmetry suggests there is some downside coming for UVXY to #2.

60min Chart


$SPX - Short Term Update

So far SPX has had difficulty pushing up through the pink fork resistance last week, and consolidated sideways instead of bouncing much.  However, there is support at 1400 which has been holding. 

It may, or may not, trade a little lower this week, but there are numerous supports just below in any case.

Overall, the analysis indicates that the gradual decline phase from mid-September should be nearly complete.  There are very positive spots in November short term cycles.  The market could soon be in a position to spike up surprisingly sharply.

2 hour Chart

 

This fork has done an excellent job of defining resistance.  Fork resistance has been holding so far.  Even if it manages to push up here, then there should be heavy resistance just above (around the orange line).

A re-test of near the bottom is likely for UVXY in November. 

30min Chart

$SPX - Short Term Positive Cycle Due

SPX had a weak day yesterday once it fell through the yellow fork.  Nevertheless, a short term positive cycle is due, and therefore a bounce is probable next, and could take some time to play out.

There should still be a lower low for SPX following this bounce.  A final lower low would then complete the gradual declining phase.  

60min Chart

UVXY reached fork resistance yesterday, and is due to cool off short term.  A test of the midfork seems probable next.  Following a cooling off period, a final spike up is likely.

30min Chart

UVXY - Update

UVXY did, in fact, confirm the breakout overnight.  So that does change the short term outlook considerably.  However, in November, it is anticipated that near the bottom is tested once again. 

30min Chart

UVXY - Important Setup

UVXY likely already bottomed.  An attempt was made to break above the midfork today, but it was not quite ready to do so. 

Short term positive cycles are due for SPX, therefore, UVXY is probably going to dip, and put in a higher low before a real breakout.

This time is absolutely most important in terms of large cycles...  After much waiting, big picture charts will be posted this week.  

30min Chart

$SPX - Downtrend to Resume

SPX bounced sharply, but the gradual downtrend from mid-September is clearly defined.  Another lower low is possible soon.   

VIX put in a higher low today from several days ago.  VIX also has been making higher lows since August.

60min Chart

UVXY tested fork support today, and it held.  Short term it may be ready for a solid push higher.

30min Chart



$SPX - Short Term Outlook

The recent sharp rally continues to be characteristic of an overall sideways to gradually declining market.  This current phase is anticipated to last for weeks.

Cycles are turning negative again, and indicate another short term drop is due shortly to test near the recent low for SPX.  

15min Chart

$SPX - 5 year Cycle Coming Due

A large 5 year cycle is coming due.  The significance of this larger picture view will be discussed in depth in November. 

Think big when others think small. 

7day Chart

$SPX - Gradual Decline Phase

There will likely be a few sharp bounces along the way, but overall SPX is anticipated to form a gradual decline lower to the green target area.  It is estimated that this decline phase takes 3 weeks to complete.

The process should be choppy with another moderate spike up during the first half of November (once the downside target area is reached).  The spike may take SPX to a marginal new high for 2012.  A final November spike would complete a broadening top formation. 

The bigger picture is much more important, and those charts are coming. 

60min Chart

 

Short Term:

UVXY is at midfork resistance and should flatten out for a few days, then drop down again early next week. 

SPX may be relatively quiet for the rest of the week, then have a decent bounce early next week.

30min Chart

$SPX - Spike Update

SPX reached the target area today, and also touched the yellow fork line.  It will be interesting to see how it interacts with the fork line here.

Although this rally does not seem to be finished yet, there are negative spots in the cycle analysis for Friday/Monday.      

30min Chart

$SPX - Spike Up Next

The cycle analysis is very positive for SPX early this week.  Therefore, a spike up fairly sharply looks likely, and top out during the middle of the week. 

In contrast, the second half of the week looks negative.  The white trendline short term downside target appears due to be tested early in October. 

30min Chart

UVXY - Wild Swings

Careful with these swings!  There are currently very fast swings occurring in the VIX as panic and complacency gyrates from one extreme to the other extreme.  This is creating high energy movements in UVXY up and down. 

These wild whipsaws look like they are about to become wilder rather than calmer.  UVXY fell below the $32 level which is a concern, and suggests further downside could be possible. 

This could be the case even if it bounces in the morning.

At the same time, this unusual situation appears to be a major bottoming formation process.  Even with possible downside to near the area of the green arrow, the short term upside target remains at $43. 

30min Chart

$SPX - Plunge Update

SPX plunged once it lost support of the yellow fork.  It tested near the midfork yesterday, and has some room in price and time for a bounce into this Friday (tomorrow).  Next week SPX looks likely to drop below the midfork and test the white trendline short term target.

60min Chart

UVXY confirmed a breakout.  There should be strong support in the $32's, and next week a test of near the turquiose fork at around $38.50 looks likely.

The short term target remains at $43 by or before Oct 10th.

30min Chart

$SPX - Plunge into Early October

SPX managed to bounce from an initial test of the yellow fork last week.  This small bounce may not be quite finished yet. 

However, any rally attempts this week should be considered last gasps that will fail.  The result will be a plunge into early October.

The white trendlines represent short term downside targets.

60min Chart



Many leaders have underperformed from the May high, and this is an early warning.  RUT is keeping pace, but normally would be expected to outperform during a decent rally phase.  Notably, TRAN is already collapsing.  The conclusion is that SPX is currently trading in the late stage of a bubble, and the warning is clear for the months ahead. 

 

It is important to recognize that these relationships are more relevant to bigger picture views rather than short term outlooks.  Bigger picture charts are coming soon. 



Daily Chart