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Tuesday, October 16, 2012

$SPX - Short Term Outlook

The recent sharp rally continues to be characteristic of an overall sideways to gradually declining market.  This current phase is anticipated to last for weeks.

Cycles are turning negative again, and indicate another short term drop is due shortly to test near the recent low for SPX.  

15min Chart

Posted by at

44 comments:

  1. SCOctober 16, 2012 at 8:50 AM

    I plan to trade on a short term basis during this current choppy phase for weeks to come. However, it is most important to always remember the big picture.

    The big picture is that most of 2012 was spent at a top on the basis of a 5 year cycle. This will be discussed in detail later.

    ReplyDelete
  2. modernarmsOctober 16, 2012 at 10:04 AM

    Hello SC,
    I am getting ready to change from a price-driven methodology to a more time-based cycle and range methodology for trading. I am fairly new to trading (4 years) and haven't really been successful or consistent. There are so many people offering courses on the subject. Looking back at your posts, and then your follow-up posts, you seem to have a good knowledge of the subject, as well as confidence. Can you recommend someone to me that you know is a great teacher? I would like to learn from someone rather than learn on my own as I think I would be more successful following in someone's footsteps. thank you

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    Replies
    1. SCOctober 16, 2012 at 10:14 AM

      There is always plenty to learn when it comes to the markets.

      Shoot me an email:

      cyclicalanalyst@gmail.com

      Delete
  3. UnknownOctober 16, 2012 at 4:04 PM

    Hello,
    What are you seeing for tommorow and the rest of this week?

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    Replies
    1. SCOctober 16, 2012 at 5:10 PM

      Bearish, as shown above. The market is not strong enough to hold up here imo. I think it'll fall down just as fast as it rose since Monday morning.

      Delete
  4. joedOctober 16, 2012 at 8:15 PM

    EMINI

    http://imageshack.us/a/img834/5737/eminiz.jpg

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  5. SCOctober 17, 2012 at 6:13 AM

    For Silver $32 is important support imo. It may dip to test this level first, but I think overall it is forming a base for another strong bounce.

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  6. SCOctober 17, 2012 at 6:14 AM

    I'll try to put up some Silver charts soon.

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  7. SCOctober 17, 2012 at 6:39 AM

    I noticed the premarket low this morning for UVXY was $25.84. 4 cents above my $25.80 target.

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  8. Alex TOctober 17, 2012 at 6:48 AM

    SC , u still thinking of some low possible this seem for spx ?

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  9. SCOctober 17, 2012 at 7:04 AM

    SPX 1432-35 by tomorrow imo. Although I do think we'll see a lower low around 1420 in coming weeks also.

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  10. SCOctober 17, 2012 at 7:11 AM

    I did say the bounces would be sharp, lol.

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    Replies
    1. SCOctober 17, 2012 at 7:21 AM

      SPX should drop hard right here.

      This sharp bounce pretty much cements a run later this year to just over 1500 SPX though.

      Delete
  11. SS76October 17, 2012 at 7:25 AM

    1432 tomorrow would be a dream....unfortunately too many of those have nto come true for me.

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    1. SCOctober 17, 2012 at 7:39 AM

      Don't forget SPX is in a downtrend since mid-Sept. Lower highs and lower lows. Sharp bounces such as this one are typical in downtrends and usually indicative of a short squeeze. Once the shorts are squeezed then not much real buying power is left.

      So the market falls hard (as we should see now)...

      Delete
  12. AfshaikhOctober 17, 2012 at 8:22 AM

    If SP closes above 1450-1455...VIX holders will be crushed once again !

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  13. SS76October 17, 2012 at 9:21 AM

    Ya, bought HVU at $7.41, now thinking it may have been a mistake.

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  14. SCOctober 17, 2012 at 9:30 AM

    VIX holding well today, higher low from yesterday. Looks good for the bears.

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  15. SCOctober 17, 2012 at 9:31 AM

    VIX actually has higher lows since August. Although I do think there is likely a lower low coming later this year.

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  16. SS76October 17, 2012 at 9:42 AM

    Well, the SPX has now taken out last weeks highs so we have to see if it closes up here, or sells off....the former and we're in trouble, the latter and I'll rest ok.

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  17. Alex TOctober 17, 2012 at 12:23 PM

    Spx holding the level strongly. Any change of mind, SC ?

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    Replies
    1. SCOctober 17, 2012 at 12:37 PM

      Still the same. SPX should roll over soon imo.

      Delete
    2. AMOctober 17, 2012 at 2:33 PM

      Do you see gold rolling over as well? 1690's?

      Delete
  18. modernarmsOctober 17, 2012 at 1:10 PM

    Hi joed,
    we closed the day above your "line in sand" so I presume that (according to your method) we are bullish for hours and days ahead. Or is it just one of the bars that needs to close above, not necessarily the end-of-day.
    thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  19. joedOctober 17, 2012 at 1:45 PM

    Moder...

    That was just an intra day chart.......a new resistance area will come in as time comes in! Best, joed

    ReplyDelete
  20. UnknownOctober 17, 2012 at 2:07 PM

    Joed .. do you still see market moving down to Nov ?

    Also do you think the spx 1421 was the low of this correction?

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    Replies
    1. joedOctober 17, 2012 at 3:43 PM

      K,

      Yes My cycle work shows price pressure down as I have posted ...........as far as the correction, at the moment I am not concerned with that until I see how price reacts in the next few days! For now ....today I took out my longs and will be looking to short! Best, joed

      Delete
  21. AMOctober 17, 2012 at 9:42 PM

    SC,

    Here is SPX with your calls pointed in real time in last 12 months or so, since i started reading your blog. Originally you had some amazing calls in 2011, with no follow through on the actual crash but still great call and that bear trap in mid summer. Last 12 months though you've been swimming against the tide. December 2012 will be 1 year anniversary since that famous crash call:

    http://i1266.photobucket.com/albums/jj536/charts101/scsSPXpDyr2mn0dy0ip77335857888a2808_zps70bee56f.png

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCOctober 17, 2012 at 10:54 PM

      The reason why I've been skewed bearish most of this year is that I have recognized that 2012 has been a topping process much of the year. It has been a grind, with a lot of whipsaws, a tight range for most of the year, and there hasn't been much upside since March.

      Now I realize that characterizing much of 2012 as a "topping process" may not seem obvious at this time, but months from now what I am saying will be clear. The fact is that this is a pricey market, and it has been all year...

      The larger picture. I'm going to discuss all of this in detail soon, and that brings me back to the topic of the 5 year cycle and it's implications. This 5 year cycle is just a glimpse of a very detailed set of charts and in depth analysis coming with regards to larger cycles.

      Delete
    2. mickOctober 18, 2012 at 5:18 AM

      AM .. thats great chart is shows that bearish calls have been horrible lately.. however there were some good calls early. Keep updating it, so we do not get any revisionist history

      Delete
    3. mickOctober 18, 2012 at 5:22 AM

      SC .. when you look at AM do you realize that your bearish stance from SP 1240 all the way to SP 1400+ has been wrong.. larger picture may be right but most of us are traders and shorter term is all that matters

      Delete
  22. PhilOctober 17, 2012 at 10:56 PM

    If you think that is bad you should take a look at Prechter's work...my 95 year old Grandmother could make better calls & yet the guy is famous!!!

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  23. SCOctober 18, 2012 at 5:49 AM

    "most of us are traders and shorter term is all that matters"

    That is exactly my point. For 5 years now traders have been focused and conditioned towards smaller, short term moves. A big move is coming, and it will surprise most.

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    Replies
    1. SCOctober 18, 2012 at 6:37 AM

      I will do short term trades as long as they fit within the framework of my larger cycles.

      Delete
  24. PhilOctober 18, 2012 at 7:12 AM

    Following SC, just bought UVXY @ 25.94 but only 3,000 shares...

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    Replies
    1. SCOctober 18, 2012 at 7:19 AM

      I'm still thinking it can pop to about $30.

      Delete
  25. PhilOctober 18, 2012 at 7:30 AM

    Which is why I bought Mr SC...looking for a pullback to 1440 before we push up to new highs of 1490ish.

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  26. testy99October 18, 2012 at 8:07 AM

    some think it may go up near recent highs before pulling back to 1440 and then go to higher highs....we'll let the markets tell us.

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  27. mickOctober 18, 2012 at 8:59 AM

    get out phil...

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  28. SCOctober 18, 2012 at 9:52 AM

    If the market continues to defy gravity here, and keeps pushing short term then $23's, $24's is possible for UVXY. However, if that occurs then I believe UVXY would bounce stronger. $33.50 to $36 area.

    I am holding even if it dips lower.

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    Replies
    1. SantaOctober 18, 2012 at 10:14 AM

      dont know about the market, but GOOG certainly loving gravity lol

      Delete
  29. SCOctober 18, 2012 at 2:52 PM

    SPX failed today, heading lower imo. Chart update coming.

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  30. mickOctober 18, 2012 at 4:55 PM

    I disagree... lets look at whats happened, IBM,INTC,GOOG,MSFT, to name a few have all missed, and market has yawned, we are going higher. Think about it, if the market wanted to go down its had plenty of reasons.

    ReplyDelete

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