Timing for completion is estimated around January 4th +/-.
The bigger picture Deja Vu Cycle must always be respected.
30min Chart
Notice the placement of the red trendline!
Daily Chart
Current Deja Vu Cycle for SPY:
Notice that SPY is still well above the red trendline!
Weekly Chart
Risk/reward was attractive enough that I went long SPX today at 1410 with a moderate size position.
ReplyDeleteSPX is trading well above the red trendline, and this is a spot in the Deja Vu Cycle that is quite bullish. Therefore, attractive.
My trade is short term only.
Do u plan to hold this long trade at least until jan 4th +- ?? Or do u have a price target in mind ?
ReplyDeleteYes, I plan to hold until around Jan 4th give or take. As far as price, I'll lean on the conservative side, and look to exit early.
DeleteSC how sure are you of the up move? Because it doesn't look like the market is holding on strong
ReplyDeleteI'm confident on the up move next. Quiet today but expecting the pace to pick up dramatically next week.
DeleteIts sinking big time...looks like 1380 is the stop
ReplyDeleteHoly shit...look at the vix...jumped over $3...wow.....
ReplyDeleteNow because SPX came down lower, then best bounce would be to the 1435 SPX area. That means that the sharp rally phase is already over.
ReplyDeleteThere is still that next lower high estimated at around 1435 shown on the Deja Vu Cycle.
Will update the charts this weekend.
what you explained VIX rise? this is just unbelievable...will we get good entry in UVXY now? after $3.50 RISE?
ReplyDeleteTHANKS
The cycle still shows a bounce for SPX to the 1435 area, so yes, there will another good spot for UVXY once it cools again.
DeleteLOL!!!Final Surge or Final Plunge?
ReplyDeleteThe beauty of this cycle is that it provides another spot to short at the secondary peak estimated at around 1435 SPX.
ReplyDeletei dont get it, 2 days ago you said the sharp rally phase should go to 1460s or 90s, now you say its over so the surge was 10 pts ? it looks like you miscalulated the timeframes here, i think the plunge has been underway since 1450
ReplyDeleteI'll be explaining with an update.
DeleteBottom line is that as long as 1400 SPX held then a higher high looked possible to finish the sharp rally phase.
However, S&P futures fell after the close on Friday. So the conclusion is that the sharp rally phase is likely already over.
The Cycle still suggests another secondary peak at roughly 1435 SPX though.
SCDecember 27, 2012 10:48 AM
"As long as SPX holds near the current support levels around 1400, it can bounce well. 1460's and possibly higher.
If SPX comes down some more then the bounce would not take it as high 1430 to 1440."
Bespoke Investment Group relates US Investors Get A Lump Of Coal. The US, SPY, is one of just three country ETFs trading below their 50-day moving averages.
ReplyDeleteI relate that Liberalism’s final bout of easing gave strong moneyness not only to Europe, VGK, and Asia, EPP, but also to Emerging Market Leaders such as Mexico, EWW, the Phillippines, EPHE, Turkey, TUR, and Thailand, THD.
And I say that the weekly chart of the S&P 500, SPY, shows that it entered into an Elliott Wave 3 Down, closing at 140.03, after having made an Elliott Wave 5 Double Top High in September 2012.
AP reports Fund Managers: 2013 stock outlook remains positive. In today’s uncertain environment, stock mutual fund managers acknowledge there's reason for investors to be cautious. But they remain optimistic that there will be significant rewards for staying invested in stocks.
But I recommend that the investor dollar cost average into the physical possession of gold bullion and possession of gol at Bullion Vault and Gold Is Money, and that institutional investors start short selling immediately.
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