Finding the edge in analyzing unique market Cycles.
SC,That line, depending on how you draw it could be off by 1-2-3~6months!!! Also, do not forget that it can always fail! Like many analysis and "predictions" normally do.I will be looking for a strong sell signal, instead of expecting that something should happen because I or somebody else thinks so. Do you see a strong sell on the SnP? All i see is some divergences, but we've had them for months during this rally.What will you do if market corrects and keeps rallying into august 2013? Keep re-drawing that line wider and wider...?Markets are never wrong, opinions are.
All im saying is that half of the world can see this huge T. This is exactly when things usually happen differently.Just my 2 cents.
I agree regarding obvious patterns. This large time cycle is officially due in Oct, but a November high looks likely from the short term analysis as previously shown.Gradual decline only in Oct. Nov high.
i subscribe to a theory with solid empirical evidence that:1. the top or bottom after a new top or bottom is more important. makes sense because the first one will overshoot the market's projection of value.2. the market is often expanding or contracting compared to theoryapplying both to this chart moves this top into the future and puts the second top at the fiscal cliff: http://screencast.com/t/DjjNUj6LIzP
Interesting, thank you. That also suggests top is yet to come. Still early.
Moving peak at 1 and bottom at 0 just slightly will push #2 out a few months or even into the summer 2013.
They are aligned at the bottom and at the top. So accuracy is roughly a few week window.The reason I showed this chart was to make a point that it is important to remember to zoom out to better see what is happening in the market. I do not expect the market to turn exactly on this time cycle. November is the key month in many methods of analysis.
Fib Time: the larger the time frame the larger the marginal error...your timing could be off months!!!!
It does not matter because I am using short term cycles for timing purposes.
This chart is simply meant for bigger picture perspective.
Thanks for the insight...Half the people I follow are extremely bearish & the other half are screaming bulls at this point.Don't forget the election is coming up....is the mkt likely to tank prior to that? Tend to agree with SC that Nov is a better month to swing the old bat.
From your previous chart, we are now in the time frame for the P3 you projected, do you think wave 1 of P3 has started? Are you positioned short yet?
Hi curious....I am not sure what chart you are referring to but my cycles have been calling for the top as I posted. As such though I am not a "position" trader in the classic mode! I swing trade with the 240 min inside the longer term cycle and yes I have been shorting with the 240 min from the top as I have posted in the charts! I am highly aware of profit points along the way of any cycle move as in managing money the important stat is the equity curve......my outlook has been posted so I will not bore anyone in repeating it! Best to ya always.......joed
As per plan:SCOctober 10, 2012 10:19 AM"SPX probably bottomed for now, a few more points possible downside in a few days. Then set for a decent bounce."
Expecting a sharp bounce early next week for SPX.
UVXY bounced at the level outlined on the last chart. However, UVXY is so weak today, I am lowering my target for early next week to $25.80.I probably will look at entering XIV today.
1420 is holding which is my line in the sand, if that breaks....VIX will shoot up.So far it looks that will hold, which means more pain for UVXY holders
The fact that SPX has dropped over 40 points and uvxy has only gone up about 10-15% from their lows is just continuing pain with this instrument.If you can call the indices correctly, traders would be better off trading something more direct with SPX (SPY, TZA etc..) versus volatility derivatives.
It is simply an indication of a market that isn't ready to turn down. The etf's will perform great when the timing is ready.
That's the whole point, there has been no timing since July, yet somehow UVXY is going to $40
That is true, and yet I have plenty of patience to wait for a move that only occurs once every 5 years.
"move that only occurs once every 5 years. "if the market is expanding next point #2 will be later in time. Do you have any evidence that this market is not expanding/contracting? Expansion will throw your time off.By #2 i mean significant profit taking event ala 01/08 and not some blip on the chart.
There is plenty of evidence not only in terms of cycles but confirming in market behaviour. The evidence will be included in detailed analysis as part of my big picture outlook. The big picture charts and reasoning are coming in Nov.
Bought a boatload of XIV at $17.05 aftermkt. I think the probability of a rally Mon/Tues is quite high. Short term trade.
SC,I have to ask why you are so confident short term rally Monday/Tuesday?
A number of things make for a high probability bounce now, and it should be sharp. Mostly it is because of the cycles and pattens that I follow. Also, SPX tested just below the white trendline, and 50 day ma at 1428. VIX lower high as well.SPX should have a sharp bounce early this week. Then, SPX likely to spend some time restesting this level later in Oct. I have some more detailed short term charts coming for the rest of Oct and Nov.
SC...were you confident in your September market melt down prediction? Not trying to be rude, but your were wrong then, so maybe you be wrong again?
It has certainly been a slow process with numerous whipsaws. The analysis is clear that SPX is in the late stages of a major topping process. Having said that the short term cycles are also clear that SPX is currently in a consolidation period with a higher high to come.
The Sept 30th SPX analysis worked out nicely on a price basis though it was slower to play out. That gives me confidence on the next price moves, and I think I have a better read on the timing with some patterns I am using now.http://cyclicalmarketanalysis.blogspot.ca/2012/09/spx-spike-up-next.html
As I recall, you were looking for a breakdown in September. That's why you own uvxy at much higher prices.
This is true, Unknown, and I think NOBODY has the perfect timing down; however, it's a learning process with today's high frequency trading flooding the markets. It's very difficult predicting outcomes w/factors that simply did not exist 30+ years ago. I think SC is on the right path, but the timing needs fine tuning, and I have no doubt that he will improve upon this. I know I would have greater losses and less understanding of the market w/o SC's guidance. Just my personal opinion.
IMO, the only thing that counts in this business is the bottom line.If you are up for the year with this kind of timing than who cares about the rest?
SC, awesome call on picking up XIV for quick flip! I'm still holding my boatload @ $17.10 AH on Friday.
Thank you, XIV heating up nicely this morning. Markets should pop into tomorrow imo.
I'm planning to take profit in the $18's for XIV.
Hi SC,Looks like things are working out for you well short term....great!The BIG move in UVXY, I just wonder do you forsee a move to new highs in November as we approach the election? We may get a pull back soon but I'm just concerned THE TOP may not yet be in as there are too many bears around at the moment.Thanks.
Hi Phil,In my view we are trading basically in a sideways range for weeks now. Choppy consolidation for weeks to come. No major upside or downside for weeks, just sideways, up and down. Yes, there will be weak spots, but a new high after that.The mood is too gloomy and I agree. We're working towards larger cycles with cleaner trends, but just sideways, and choppy phase for now. I'm going to do some trading in this range for weeks to come - bull and bear. Will have short term charts coming. The big picture is setting up as well, and this 5 year cycle is important to always remember as things progress.
Thank you kindly for answering my question....that confirms my gut feeling too.Regards,Phil.
Sold XIV at $18.13. Will be looking for UVXY entry.
Playing a sideways range, and I think UVXY should bottom out, and head right back to $30 area.SPX could retest the recent low as soon as tomorrow imo.
Bought UVXY at $26.36. This might be early but looking for $30 next few days. Short term trade.
UVXY close to my target area mentioned last week:SCOctober 12, 2012 9:08 AM"UVXY bounced at the level outlined on the last chart. However, UVXY is so weak today, I am lowering my target for early next week to $25.80."
Hi SC,Which recent low for SPX do you foresee in the near future ? 1420's ? Thanks in advance.Alex
Yes I think we can see SPX 1420-30 area again as soon as tomorrow.
**New chart is up**