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Thursday, October 18, 2012

$SPX - Downtrend to Resume

SPX bounced sharply, but the gradual downtrend from mid-September is clearly defined.  Another lower low is possible soon.   

VIX put in a higher low today from several days ago.  VIX also has been making higher lows since August.

60min Chart















UVXY tested fork support today, and it held.  Short term it may be ready for a solid push higher.

30min Chart






23 comments:

  1. SC,

    Take a look at long term Shanghai Composite stock index. See it turning up? Big double bottom or whatever? If it moves up into 2013, SnP will put in new highs.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Shanghai Index has been moving down for about 2 years now without hindering the SPX rally, so why now the Shanghai rally (which I agree about) should influence the S&P ?
    Those are 2 differents animals.

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    Replies
    1. I look at it the other way around - SnP managed to advance higher on Shanghai's move lower. If Asia gets a bid upstairs, which it seems to be getting, this might inflate us even higher. I call it Shanghai surprise. lol

      What i am looking for now is a shake out before bid higher.

      IMO another bear trap is coming!!!

      Delete
  3. I still see SPX spiking up in Nov, not now.

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  4. sold my UVXY today for a 0.60 profit based on comment SC...thanks!

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  5. today is Option Expiration, anniversary to OE Friday Oct 16, 1987 pre-crash.
    http://humblestudent777.blogspot.com/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. To gain any credibility, try to forecast what is coming, not every time post some charts or some emails sent to your own inbox, stating that you see it coming. Of course it's much easier to say which way market is going when the move already been made.

      Delete
  6. TBONDS/EMINI

    I talked about the short.............

    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

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  7. hi SC,
    do you think we are done falling for the day?
    nice call by the way!

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    Replies
    1. I think there is a little more to go late today and/or more likely Monday morning. SPX is right at the white trendline currently.

      Delete
  8. For UVXY I think it will likely run up into the $29's, $30's soon, and then spend days rattling up and down there consolidating next week. Then a final pop up to $33's.

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  9. Hi Sc are you still staying short on the S&P?

    Thanks

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  10. I'm planning to hold my positions for now. I do think there will likely be a bounce into mid next week. So market could put in a short term bottom early next week, then bounce. End of Oct low imo.

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  11. nice call.. I was wrong on this one. I think we bounce soon though

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  12. I think a bounce is coming for SPX sooner than later. Mid part of the week looks positive. So I decided not to push it too much more here.

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  13. Will sit in cash and see how things look tomorrow.

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  14. SPX at the yellow fork support.

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  15. Bought UVXY back at $28.25.

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    Replies
    1. Hello SC

      wondering if you can give a 1 liner as to why you sell and buy here today with UVXY? seems to be day trading it, not even short term holding here.
      Like to know the explaination on buying here at the end of the day.

      Thanks!

      Delete
    2. Cause in AH right now, UVXY is hitting 27.89 just now, not really sure a clear direction for this beast, especially for tomorrow.

      Thanks!

      Delete
    3. I bought it thinking UVXY may bounce from this level, but that is not confirmed yet either.

      My cycles are getting close to turning positive for SPX short term so this trade may not work out. I did make $4 on the trade earlier today, but if this entry isn't right then may have to exit tomorrow.

      Tomorrow is important short term as to next direction.

      Delete
  16. I have a plan with charts coming.

    ReplyDelete