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Monday, November 26, 2012

Silver Crash - SPY Deja Vu Cycle

History first:

September 23, 2011:

"This has been an historically awful day for precious metals.

Here’s just how grim the selloff in silver was today:
The $6.49, 18% decline to $30.05 an ounce (that’s the September contract) was the worst dollar loss
since January 22, 1980 and the worst percentage loss since April 27, 1987.

It was the second-biggest dollar loss in history and the fifth-largest percentage loss in history.
Silver has tumbled 26% this week."

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/09/23/silver-has-its-worst-day-since-1987/


Will 2011 Silver history rhyme/repeat with the SPY Deja Vu Cycle continuing through the phases? 

Wait and see in coming weeks/months....

Weekly Chart















Anatomy of the September 2011 Silver Crash:

Daily Chart
 

A closer look at SPY:
 
Daily Chart
 
A closer look at Silver:
 
60min Chart
















30 comments:

  1. SC, I am confused. Do you mean SPY may sell off just like 2011 Silver or Silver may repeat/rhyme history and sell off just like Sept 2011 or both? If Silver sell off then you're referring 26-27 as target area? Thanks for the wonderful chart along with history and a timely article. I appreciate you sharing this.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This is just the introduction to my SPY Deja Vu big picture cycle. I will have a lot more to say on this analysis going forward including timing and targets for SPY going forward.

      Out of my big picture charts, I wanted to show this one first since I feel it may be helpful in understanding December markets for SPY.

      In this cycle, looking at the 60 min Silver chart, SPY just bounced off the late August bottom. The general picture for December SPY is a grind up as shown late Aug for Silver.

      In this cycle, SPY is in the late stages and leading into the same setup as the big Silver drop in Sept 2011.

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    2. I'll have ideas coming for Silver soon too.

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    3. Okay, got it. Thanks much! I am betting for Silver to go down to 29-30 area by December 20. I think dollar is ready to recoup recent retrace and will head back up during the same time and will lead Silver sell off. PM sentiment should wash off by then too staging another short rally in January. I don't see any inflationary environment nor it will be in 2013 since QE3 is not expanding FED balance sheet unlike QE1 and QE2. Hence, there isn't a catalyst for Gold or Silver to run high. If market sells off in your big picture, then I would think dollar will go high and send PM down too. Thanks again!

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  2. Hi SC, many thanks for you work. Please, could you share with us your Silver Roadmap ?
    Take care

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    Replies
    1. Yes, I will have Silver charts coming.

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  3. Notice that the waterfall move started from a higher high for Silver but not for SPY.

    Therefore this cycle does not specifically predict whether the next peak for SPY will be a higher or lower high from September. Either is possible, but it is of little importance to the big picture.

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  4. Joed, the down arrows on Nov 30 dec 7th. Are you looking for a high on those dates? I personally was looking for a low on the Nov 30 th time frame myself.

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. M

      I am not so much referring to a CIT date as I am showing the swing cycle topping that I am trading! I am not so much referring to a date as a window in time that my cycles end, rest, change direction etc. Good trading, joed

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  5. SC,
    will you have a chart on UVXY too? do you still stick to your analysis that a weak spot on SPX will occur this week (maybe starting yesterday till the end of this week?), and then rally starting next week? how about late Dec/early Jan?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, I will have charts coming for UVXY. There can be some small bounces for UVXY such as we saw today, but I think there is a better spot that I am planning to enter after middle of next week.

      I do think there can be minor weak spots (choppy)for SPX this week but more so particularly early next week. Then rally again.

      I'll post both short term and bigger picture charts throughout the next month, and will post charts for late Dec/Jan around mid Dec.

      In my work the sharp rally phase has only just begun in terms of time, and in terms of price, reached near half way roughly.

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    2. So there is plenty of time and price left in this rally phase. It should be a choppy grind up for weeks.

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  6. Will post a short term update tomorrow.

    ReplyDelete
  7. SC,
    Thanks a lot for your nice work!

    ReplyDelete
  8. To clarify one thing. you are saying SPX will drop to the recent low by middle of next week and then rally will start thereafter? in other words, UVXY may perform well going into mid of next week?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No just small dips for SPX imo. I don't think UVXY will do much yet, and cool off again soon. UVXY likely choppy but a low for UVXY middle or late next week, then I will look to enter for a better bounce.

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  9. I will bet UVXY and other VIX related products do great this week. SP500 is under 1400 and 1394 last 2 supports...it's going down to 1380's at least....Gold has dropped by $30 this morning...if UVXY doesn't rise by atleast 5-10% today then something is wrong

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  10. Bouncing up and down in the pink channel. Should be support again at these levels for SPX. Likely test the top of the channel again soon.

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  11. Which pink channel are you referrign to ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The channel is shown on the chart from Nov 24th.

      "A moderate dip to around the pink midfork is likely once the target zone above is tested. SPX may rattle up and down several times to consolidate in the upper half of the pink fork before advancing much."

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  12. Found support, may be heading up to around 1415 or so next.

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  13. The Key for me is a close above 1404 or even 1408...then I would look for a bounce up to 1420

    if not the lows of today will definitely be tested in the net few days

    Nice article on oversold levels for VIX

    http://wallstreetsectorselector.com/2012/11/vix-etfs-confused-on-flat-day/

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  14. It should continue to be choppy imo. We can go up to 1415 or 1420 and right back down to 1380. Early next week particularly could be weak I think.

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  15. Hi SC,

    I could not read your posts for a long time because of my exams. I could not see any precious metal related comment as far as I follow your interpretations (only looking at post titles) for a long time.

    Please share your gold and silver ideas and expectations even they are too short like one sentence.

    Thank you so much.
    RB

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks RB, I do have ideas coming for the metals, and will post some charts soon!

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  16. SC,

    Dont you think that 1409 could be test for S&P?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think we overshoot that level a little, for a false breakout, then turn down again.

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