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Sunday, November 11, 2012

$SPX - Gradual Decline Phase Complete

The orange support from October 29th analysis was reached last week.  This is anticipated to be a very strong level of support.  Therefore, the gradual decline phase since mid-September should now be complete. 

A rally phase is the next step according to the big picture outlook for SPX.

Short term, a bounce to test just above the white trendline may occur shortly.  Ultimately the upper boundary of the turquoise broadening top formation may be reached during the big picture rally phase. 

2hour Chart

65 comments:

  1. I feel strongly about this level of support and so went long at 1378 SPX last week.

    Positive cycles should be approaching. Among other evidence, VIX was giving good confirmations of a reversal last week.



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  2. I'll plan to take profit in the area near the white trendline and just above on an initial bounce. This is because I think it may take a few drives to reach the turquoise target zone with dips in between.

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  3. DOW ..........

    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

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    1. Hi Joe ;) so thats your line in the sand. If it gets broken, do you have any downside targets? Any feeling regarding this rollover, i remember you were thinking that we may head down into November.

      Thank you.

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    2. Hi AM....

      My line in the sand is time.....I am starting to build my long position today. This is a 10 yr cycle bottom coming which is searching the bottom. The time window can get into the 3rd week of Nov. Best to ya and good trading! joed

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    3. Thanks Joe,

      I think we'll bounce this week, and I also see a weak spot 3rd week of Nov.

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    4. thanks Joe. So you think Dollar is done? It does not seem that way.

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    5. US DOLLAR

      http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

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  4. What happened to the 'short term november rally' ?

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  5. Definitely a little slower to setup. Bottoming now, and yes, rally in Nov, and likely carry into Dec as well.

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  6. VIX getting hammered. Rally coming for SPX must be soon imo.

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    Replies
    1. doesn't look like it's today. maybe tomorrow. or next week. or next month.

      we know the drill.

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  7. Market setting to climb "fiscal cliff" wall of worry.

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  8. Joed.. Do you think 2013 will also follow the 10 year cycle?

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    Replies
    1. Kevin

      2013 is a whole different game.........I am refferring to a cycle bottoming not following! Best, joed

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  9. Hi SC,
    Please can you check your previous analysis on gold ?
    http://cyclicalmarketanalysis.blogspot.fr/2012/02/gold-parabolic-move-coming.html
    What do you think about gold today ? In terms of price and timing.
    Thanks, I am convinced it will be helpful for the Community.

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    Replies
    1. Gold/Silver still have some time imo. The Gold bull could end with a parabolic move. One pattern of mine suggests 3 drives to a high. The first drive was the Sept push imo.

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  10. SPX continuing to hold well. Looks ready to rally hard.

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  11. Initially, a bounce could test just over the white trendline. 1410-1415 area give or take.

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  12. What's your timing on that target? Usually coming out of a bottom of this magnitude we see one or two big green daily candles in a row, which hasn't happened yet here. Thanks...

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    Replies
    1. Yes, that is what I am thinking also. Timing in the next day or two.

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  13. Hi Joed

    Are you seeing the same view point as SC and that we head higher now into the rest of November? or you still seeing further downside, cause remembered that you posted a DOW chart weeks ago targeting around 12000 in Nov.


    Thanks!

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    Replies
    1. Not to speak for Joe, but I think the emphasis was on time rather than price.

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    2. Investbb

      I am not rapped around targets as I show support/resistance for time to run into......SC is correct as my concern is always time and the length of time with a run! Targets are the END RESULT of time sqing in reality......I am a buyer! Best, joed

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  14. With todays price action do u think we can go lower first before hitting your 1410-1415 spx area ?? At what lower level in spx will invalidation happen ?

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  15. Although still sluggish it seems that there is a floor under the market. Ideally I would like to see it hold right around this level.

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  16. Bounce imminent, in my opinion...see chart on the blog under my handler.

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  17. The rally just doesnt want to come

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  18. Any thoughts SC ? U still holding the long position ?

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    Replies
    1. Yes still holding. I'm going to give it some time. Frustrating that the VIX has fallen hard the last few days but yet SPX at these levels.

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    2. I don't consider this dip a breach of support because S&P futures are just testing the low of Nov 9th.

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  19. Replies
    1. I want to see some more and review.

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    2. Thanks. I think now the bounce is right there, but the size is what I am interested in. Need to see a good rally, but guess that would depend on the fiscal cliff resolution.

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    3. There are specific things I am looking for regarding several patterns I have, and that is why I need to see more.

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  20. surprise November rally ??? gradual decline phase complete ??? ummm not quite

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  21. People need to remember these are predictions only. The future cannot be determined beforehand.

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  22. Today should provide a short term low, but NOT a buy signal yet.
    Internal tech data has not issued a buy and the ARMS index yesterday was only 1.27- which means more selling is coming soon.
    Jaywiz index on Tues was .27= very bearish
    Wed = .34, also bearish
    UNDER .50 is generally considered bearish for the next day
    EKG & PD resources have been incredible for weeks.
    Later
    Jay

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  23. Replies
    1. Pretty slow day today. I want to see things unfold for the next day or two.

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  24. SPX at 1350 is on the EDGE of the CLIFF.

    Internal tech data REITERATED another SELL SIGNAL TODAY

    But tomorrow should end higher

    THE ACTUAL bottom is coming soon
    Later
    Jay

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  25. DOW...........

    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

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    Replies
    1. Thank you Joed, for your insight.


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    2. Investbb

      Ur welcome...good trading! joed

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  26. Replies
    1. Finally getting some traction today, and VIX remains quiet. I would like to see follow through but it looks promising.

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  27. DOW THEN AND NOW

    http://img801.imageshack.us/img801/7871/46615127.png

    http://img715.imageshack.us/img715/4092/dow2t.png

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  28. Very nice Joed. Do you think time found the intermediate term support or do you expect to see an extension of the time window into next week? Many thanks.

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  29. 5973

    My dates are the 15 and 20th......with the weekend in the mix you just have to plan accordingly...I beleive though we are looking at price and I was buying and will continue to! Once my auto system kicks in on the up move I will add as we go! Godd trading and the best to ya! Happy Turkey to all!~ joed

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  30. Joed .. do you think we'll be at over SPX 1440 by Jan 1st?

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    Replies
    1. Kevin

      My work suggests price will be at 1440 or near it by that time.........once again as time moves on I can figure closer as time squares price! Best, joed

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  31. Latest Nov update: http://swingcycles.blogspot.com/2012/11/november-2012-update-ii.html

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  32. Hi SC

    LOOKS Like a CHOPPY week with no confirmed direction Nov19-21
    BUT
    Im looking for the 23rd to be a DEFINED PIVOT LOW.

    Strength the week after giving a solid rally into an early December high

    Highs could possibly regain all the losses of the past month

    Later
    Jaywiz

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    Replies
    1. Thank you. 23rd looks interesting to me also.

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  33. Retest 1355 area this week, then over 1400 imo. My plan is to take profit on this trade around 1415 SPX.

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  34. Short term resistance in the 1380's.

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  35. Most likely quiet holiday week.

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  36. Replies
    1. Well I was definitely early in turning bullish, but it is playing out. I may look to take profit next few days if it grinds higher, and then reload around 1355 to 1360 area.

      The quiet VIX told the story last week.

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  37. U have to check out Kong's post as of late last night...as he is a forex specialist - real time tweets, not to mention hilarious posts.

    http://www.forexkong.com

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  38. SC,
    What will be the next entry price for UVXY? probably by this Wed/Thur?
    Thx

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    Replies
    1. I have been standing aside, and waiting for it to cool off. Updated charts are coming for it. It is a little early I think, but later this week or early next week.

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