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Sunday, November 11, 2012

$SPX - Gradual Decline Phase Complete

The orange support from October 29th analysis was reached last week.  This is anticipated to be a very strong level of support.  Therefore, the gradual decline phase since mid-September should now be complete. 

A rally phase is the next step according to the big picture outlook for SPX.

Short term, a bounce to test just above the white trendline may occur shortly.  Ultimately the upper boundary of the turquoise broadening top formation may be reached during the big picture rally phase. 

2hour Chart
Posted by at

64 comments:

  1. SCNovember 11, 2012 at 9:04 PM

    I feel strongly about this level of support and so went long at 1378 SPX last week.

    Positive cycles should be approaching. Among other evidence, VIX was giving good confirmations of a reversal last week.



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  2. SCNovember 11, 2012 at 9:07 PM

    I'll plan to take profit in the area near the white trendline and just above on an initial bounce. This is because I think it may take a few drives to reach the turquoise target zone with dips in between.

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  3. joedNovember 12, 2012 at 2:10 AM

    DOW ..........

    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

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    Replies
    1. AMNovember 12, 2012 at 9:02 AM

      Hi Joe ;) so thats your line in the sand. If it gets broken, do you have any downside targets? Any feeling regarding this rollover, i remember you were thinking that we may head down into November.

      Thank you.

      Delete
    2. joedNovember 12, 2012 at 9:16 AM

      Hi AM....

      My line in the sand is time.....I am starting to build my long position today. This is a 10 yr cycle bottom coming which is searching the bottom. The time window can get into the 3rd week of Nov. Best to ya and good trading! joed

      Delete
    3. SCNovember 12, 2012 at 9:53 AM

      Thanks Joe,

      I think we'll bounce this week, and I also see a weak spot 3rd week of Nov.

      Delete
    4. AMNovember 12, 2012 at 8:09 PM

      thanks Joe. So you think Dollar is done? It does not seem that way.

      Delete
    5. joedNovember 13, 2012 at 2:15 AM

      US DOLLAR

      http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

      Delete
  4. Alex TNovember 12, 2012 at 7:47 AM

    What happened to the 'short term november rally' ?

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  5. SCNovember 12, 2012 at 7:58 AM

    Definitely a little slower to setup. Bottoming now, and yes, rally in Nov, and likely carry into Dec as well.

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  6. SCNovember 12, 2012 at 9:44 AM

    VIX getting hammered. Rally coming for SPX must be soon imo.

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    Replies
    1. SCNovember 12, 2012 at 9:49 AM

      Today/tomorrow.

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    2. cbear2November 13, 2012 at 12:26 AM

      doesn't look like it's today. maybe tomorrow. or next week. or next month.

      we know the drill.

      Delete
  7. SCNovember 12, 2012 at 10:11 AM

    Market setting to climb "fiscal cliff" wall of worry.

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  8. UnknownNovember 12, 2012 at 10:12 AM

    Joed.. Do you think 2013 will also follow the 10 year cycle?

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    Replies
    1. joedNovember 12, 2012 at 11:13 AM

      Kevin

      2013 is a whole different game.........I am refferring to a cycle bottoming not following! Best, joed

      Delete
  9. SCNovember 13, 2012 at 6:48 AM

    Gold/Silver still have some time imo. The Gold bull could end with a parabolic move. One pattern of mine suggests 3 drives to a high. The first drive was the Sept push imo.

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  10. SCNovember 13, 2012 at 6:58 AM

    SPX continuing to hold well. Looks ready to rally hard.

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  11. Alex TNovember 13, 2012 at 8:53 AM

    whats your target ??

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  12. SCNovember 13, 2012 at 9:02 AM

    Initially, a bounce could test just over the white trendline. 1410-1415 area give or take.

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  13. SpudthorpeNovember 13, 2012 at 9:07 AM

    What's your timing on that target? Usually coming out of a bottom of this magnitude we see one or two big green daily candles in a row, which hasn't happened yet here. Thanks...

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    Replies
    1. SCNovember 13, 2012 at 9:16 AM

      Yes, that is what I am thinking also. Timing in the next day or two.

      Delete
  14. SantaNovember 13, 2012 at 10:56 AM

    Hi Joed

    Are you seeing the same view point as SC and that we head higher now into the rest of November? or you still seeing further downside, cause remembered that you posted a DOW chart weeks ago targeting around 12000 in Nov.


    Thanks!

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    Replies
    1. SCNovember 13, 2012 at 11:02 AM

      Not to speak for Joe, but I think the emphasis was on time rather than price.

      Delete
    2. joedNovember 13, 2012 at 11:20 AM

      Investbb

      I am not rapped around targets as I show support/resistance for time to run into......SC is correct as my concern is always time and the length of time with a run! Targets are the END RESULT of time sqing in reality......I am a buyer! Best, joed

      Delete
  15. Alex TNovember 13, 2012 at 12:56 PM

    With todays price action do u think we can go lower first before hitting your 1410-1415 spx area ?? At what lower level in spx will invalidation happen ?

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  16. SCNovember 13, 2012 at 1:04 PM

    Although still sluggish it seems that there is a floor under the market. Ideally I would like to see it hold right around this level.

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  17. DoctorBoomNovember 13, 2012 at 3:48 PM

    Bounce imminent, in my opinion...see chart on the blog under my handler.

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  18. Alex TNovember 14, 2012 at 7:24 AM

    The rally just doesnt want to come

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  19. Alex TNovember 14, 2012 at 7:59 AM

    Any thoughts SC ? U still holding the long position ?

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    Replies
    1. SCNovember 14, 2012 at 8:06 AM

      Yes still holding. I'm going to give it some time. Frustrating that the VIX has fallen hard the last few days but yet SPX at these levels.

      Delete
    2. SCNovember 14, 2012 at 8:50 AM

      I don't consider this dip a breach of support because S&P futures are just testing the low of Nov 9th.

      Delete
  20. Alex TNovember 14, 2012 at 12:15 PM

    Whats your take now SC ?

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    Replies
    1. SCNovember 14, 2012 at 1:14 PM

      I want to see some more and review.

      Delete
    2. Alex TNovember 14, 2012 at 1:18 PM

      Thanks. I think now the bounce is right there, but the size is what I am interested in. Need to see a good rally, but guess that would depend on the fiscal cliff resolution.

      Delete
    3. SCNovember 14, 2012 at 1:37 PM

      There are specific things I am looking for regarding several patterns I have, and that is why I need to see more.

      Delete
  21. mickNovember 14, 2012 at 12:25 PM

    surprise November rally ??? gradual decline phase complete ??? ummm not quite

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  22. phoskNovember 14, 2012 at 12:36 PM

    People need to remember these are predictions only. The future cannot be determined beforehand.

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  23. Jay StraussNovember 15, 2012 at 5:45 AM

    Today should provide a short term low, but NOT a buy signal yet.
    Internal tech data has not issued a buy and the ARMS index yesterday was only 1.27- which means more selling is coming soon.
    Jaywiz index on Tues was .27= very bearish
    Wed = .34, also bearish
    UNDER .50 is generally considered bearish for the next day
    EKG & PD resources have been incredible for weeks.
    Later
    Jay

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  24. Alex TNovember 15, 2012 at 12:32 PM

    Any insight SC ?

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    Replies
    1. SCNovember 15, 2012 at 12:47 PM

      Pretty slow day today. I want to see things unfold for the next day or two.

      Delete
  25. Jay StraussNovember 15, 2012 at 4:43 PM

    SPX at 1350 is on the EDGE of the CLIFF.

    Internal tech data REITERATED another SELL SIGNAL TODAY

    But tomorrow should end higher

    THE ACTUAL bottom is coming soon
    Later
    Jay

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  26. joedNovember 15, 2012 at 5:15 PM

    DOW...........

    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

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  27. Alex TNovember 16, 2012 at 12:25 PM

    SC any update ?

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    Replies
    1. SCNovember 16, 2012 at 12:48 PM

      Finally getting some traction today, and VIX remains quiet. I would like to see follow through but it looks promising.

      Delete
  28. joedNovember 17, 2012 at 6:48 AM

    DOW THEN AND NOW

    http://img801.imageshack.us/img801/7871/46615127.png

    http://img715.imageshack.us/img715/4092/dow2t.png

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  29. AnonymousNovember 17, 2012 at 7:19 AM

    Very nice Joed. Do you think time found the intermediate term support or do you expect to see an extension of the time window into next week? Many thanks.

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  30. joedNovember 17, 2012 at 1:17 PM

    5973

    My dates are the 15 and 20th......with the weekend in the mix you just have to plan accordingly...I beleive though we are looking at price and I was buying and will continue to! Once my auto system kicks in on the up move I will add as we go! Godd trading and the best to ya! Happy Turkey to all!~ joed

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  31. AnonymousNovember 17, 2012 at 3:28 PM

    Thanks. Same to you!

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  32. UnknownNovember 17, 2012 at 3:47 PM

    Joed .. do you think we'll be at over SPX 1440 by Jan 1st?

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    Replies
    1. joedNovember 17, 2012 at 4:41 PM

      Kevin

      My work suggests price will be at 1440 or near it by that time.........once again as time moves on I can figure closer as time squares price! Best, joed

      Delete
  33. InletNovember 17, 2012 at 6:50 PM

    Latest Nov update: http://swingcycles.blogspot.com/2012/11/november-2012-update-ii.html

    ReplyDelete
  34. Jay StraussNovember 19, 2012 at 5:42 AM

    Hi SC

    LOOKS Like a CHOPPY week with no confirmed direction Nov19-21
    BUT
    Im looking for the 23rd to be a DEFINED PIVOT LOW.

    Strength the week after giving a solid rally into an early December high

    Highs could possibly regain all the losses of the past month

    Later
    Jaywiz

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    Replies
    1. SCNovember 19, 2012 at 6:35 AM

      Thank you. 23rd looks interesting to me also.

      Delete
  35. SCNovember 19, 2012 at 6:30 AM

    Retest 1355 area this week, then over 1400 imo. My plan is to take profit on this trade around 1415 SPX.

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  36. SCNovember 19, 2012 at 6:33 AM

    Short term resistance in the 1380's.

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  37. SCNovember 19, 2012 at 7:43 AM

    Most likely quiet holiday week.

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  38. ratandreaNovember 19, 2012 at 8:24 AM

    Well done, SC.

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    Replies
    1. SCNovember 19, 2012 at 8:34 AM

      Well I was definitely early in turning bullish, but it is playing out. I may look to take profit next few days if it grinds higher, and then reload around 1355 to 1360 area.

      The quiet VIX told the story last week.

      Delete
  39. Stock RocketNovember 19, 2012 at 11:55 AM

    U have to check out Kong's post as of late last night...as he is a forex specialist - real time tweets, not to mention hilarious posts.

    http://www.forexkong.com

    ReplyDelete
  40. DarrenderekNovember 19, 2012 at 6:53 PM

    SC，
    What will be the next entry price for UVXY? probably by this Wed/Thur?
    Thx

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    Replies
    1. SCNovember 19, 2012 at 7:26 PM

      I have been standing aside, and waiting for it to cool off. Updated charts are coming for it. It is a little early I think, but later this week or early next week.

      Delete

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