Overall, the sharp rally phase is likely to continue for weeks to come. Testing of the broadening top formation line is coming into striking distance.
Equal timing and price measurements can be estimated with measured moves.
SPX may be at the yellow arrow in the Deja Vu cycle. The red trendline is of critical importance.
60min Chart
Deja Vu Cycle from 2011:
Daily Chart
UVXY closed Friday testing the lower channel fork. It may still bounce around, but when it drops below, then another final leg down looks likely soon. It is early, though can start to look at preliminary estimates.
The green line should be important in the future.
60min Chart
SC
ReplyDeleteJust a note ...........been meaning to tell ya ........nice trading on the SnP! Happy Holidays to you and yours! Best, joed
Happy Holidays Joed! Thanks for all your contributions.
ReplyDeleteI remember you mentioned 1440 as your forecast for SP500 at year end back in November and said you will have a better idea about it when time closes by. Are you still looking for that as your year-end target? Thanks.
59...............
DeleteYes.............anf the same to ya! joed
Thank you very much Joe. I certainly appreciate your work including charts and comments. Cheers and Happy Holidays to you and yours as well this season!!
ReplyDeleteHi SC,
ReplyDeleteCan you tell me why you never short UVXY ? It could be dangerous?
would buying XIV be safer?
Deleteyes, safer. but much less profit then shorting UVXY.
DeleteI'm not interested in XIV or shorting UVXY here. The reason is that while the short term outlook is somewhat bullish for the market for a little while longer, the large cycles are due. Risk/reward isn't so attractive. VIX is low and complacency is high.
DeleteRather than playing volatility in the short term, I'll be looking for a long entry on S&P. Still have to be cautious since in my model we are approaching a major turn.
The market could trade relatively quietly this week. So I'm just waiting for now.
ReplyDeleteSC,
ReplyDeleteIf UVXY could drop to $13, say in the coming 2 weeks,as you projected, wouldn't it be nice to buy the opposite?
It could work but may not come down that much either. The low VIX makes it risky.
DeleteMy preference is to wait for UVXY to decline, then I plan to enter. I have bigger picture charts coming for UVXY.
DeleteAlso, you are saying you are looking for an entry on S&P, but at the same time, a major turn (bearish turn, i suppose) is coming. Could you please elaborate more?
ReplyDeleteThe short term trend is still bullish from the November low.
DeleteHowever, in my model this trend (sharp rally phase) will likely peak in a few weeks. Therefore approach cautiously.
I'll be expanding on this with further detailed analysis. One step at a time.
Thanks!
DeleteYou are asking the right questions. Thank you Darren.
DeleteSPX trading up into the target zone, and UVXY trading just below the pink channel line.
ReplyDeletewhat does that mean SC? are you planning to load UVXY?
ReplyDeleteNo not yet. Just waiting.
DeleteHow about SPX SC ? ARe you planning to go long or short ?
ReplyDeleteSPX is just starting to reach into this resistance area. There could be a spot for a small short later this week. However, the trend is up, and mainly I think there will likely be a decent spot to go long next week.
DeleteSC,
Delete"spot for small short" and "decent spot to go long"= targets on SPX?
Some resistance around 1432, heavier resistance in the 1437 to 1440 range, and support 1412 to 1415.
DeleteNot a breakout in my work for SPX, but bears have to be picky here since not much room to work with. Dips likely shallow imo.
DeleteVIX is only 15.62 and SPX has been up 13 points. why uvxy doesn't go down a lot? strange!
ReplyDeleteGood observation. I think once VIX breaks down below 15, then UVXY should fall more dramatically.
DeleteThe market is slowly climbing the "cliff of worry". SPX warming up slowly, getting ready to spike up later this month.
Hi Joed:
ReplyDeleteGreat call on the 1440 target. Since we are almost there, are you expecting even higher prices before Jan 1 since we still have two more weeks to go? Any chance of pullbacks here?
Enig,,,,,,,,,,,,,
ReplyDeleteI am flat my long trade now! I am waiting for a setback! If that does not happen then I will get in again with my other system! BUT I still expect the setback and as you know, I am sure, when you have wkends in the mix of a small cycle you just have to be flexible......Best, joed
BTW.........
DeleteI have the window of resistance on the EMINI here now..........joed
Thank you joed. I must say that the accuracy of your calls on turning points and targets are mind boggling.
DeleteJoed whats your target for the setback ?
ReplyDelete1400ish?
SC, what's next...train has left the platform for new high!
ReplyDeleteSPX pushed up into the area of resistance 1437-1440 that I posted yesterday. SPX still just warming up. It is early, but slowly getting ready to spike much stronger.
DeleteI think it'll cool off somewhat next.
DeleteHi SC,
ReplyDeletedo you think people will come back "worry of cliff" from tmr? so today is good time to short SPX.
SPX should cool off to some extent but if the dip is shallow it may not be that worthwhile.
Delete