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Wednesday, October 24, 2012

$SPX - Short Term Positive Cycle Due

SPX had a weak day yesterday once it fell through the yellow fork.  Nevertheless, a short term positive cycle is due, and therefore a bounce is probable next, and could take some time to play out.

There should still be a lower low for SPX following this bounce.  A final lower low would then complete the gradual declining phase.  

60min Chart















UVXY reached fork resistance yesterday, and is due to cool off short term.  A test of the midfork seems probable next.  Following a cooling off period, a final spike up is likely.

30min Chart

23 comments:

  1. The short term SPX cycle looks positive into Fri, and then turns negative into Oct 31st.

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  2. SPX can bounce as high as 1450 next, then 1380 will be my targeted low mid Nov. That ends the gradual declining phase.

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  3. Still a little soft today, but firming up generally. VIX closed down today, and a turn up soon for SPX looks likely.

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  4. Hi SC,

    Whats your short term target for SPX ? Still 1450 ?

    Thanks,
    Alex

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    Replies
    1. Alex, 1445 area SPX. 1450 maximum.

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    2. I think SPX can pop higher for a few days now, then weak into Oct 31st, then another push up to that target level early Nov.

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  5. SPX managed a squeaker low today, but in contrast VIX is a fair amount lower than a few days ago. My XIV has a higher low this morning.

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  6. Any target low for SPX before rebound ??

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    Replies
    1. 1400-1405 SPX is important support.

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  7. NOT going to make it over 1422 today and or tomorrow
    EKG shows up open on 26th but lower after.
    Oct29th next critical low
    but should continue lower till Nov13 before finding a floor
    Jay

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    Replies
    1. I still think bounce first but I also agree a lower low in Nov. 1380 SPX is support imo.

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  8. hi SC,
    what entry level are you looking for UVXY?
    are you expecting to buy today?

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    Replies
    1. I'm just sitting back and waiting for now. May wait for Monday, but let's see how thing unfold today.

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  9. Hi SC,

    U think we will hit 1380ish on SPX before rebounding ??
    How does next week look ?

    Thanks,
    Alex

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    Replies
    1. A lot of sideways chop lately, and the bounces have been only small. It might drift lower but I see big support at 1380.

      Also, imo we're nearing the end of my gradual declining phase for SPX from mid Sept. Therefore, I am generally being more careful with shorting during Nov.

      As well, I think we'll see a new high for SPX this year.

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  10. DOW

    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

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  11. SC, updated chart with your recent calls.
    So you are saying its a broad top formation?

    http://i1266.photobucket.com/albums/jj536/charts101/scsSPXpDyr2mn0dy0ip32370625066a2808_zpse9bf3980.png

    Have a good weekend.

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  12. Bottom line:

    We are in the late stages of my gradual declining phase for SPX from mid Sept. SPX will likely eke out a new high by a few points this year in my view. UVXY has already bottomed in my view, but will likely retest near the low.

    The bigger picture after that is far more important.

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  13. Hi SC

    How does the market shutdown impact your cycles ?
    Will they get shifted ?

    Thanks,
    Alex

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    Replies
    1. I'll have an update out shortly. The cycles I use continue as normal whether the market is open or closed. Actually I have cycle data for Saturdays, and Sundays as well.

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  14. Hi SC

    wondering your long term forecast last weekend. Has that been cancel due to Sandy?


    Thanks!

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    Replies
    1. I'll have that in November for sure. Waiting for specific timing of cycles.

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