Pages

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

$SPX - Short Term Positive Cycle Due

SPX had a weak day yesterday once it fell through the yellow fork.  Nevertheless, a short term positive cycle is due, and therefore a bounce is probable next, and could take some time to play out.

There should still be a lower low for SPX following this bounce.  A final lower low would then complete the gradual declining phase.  

60min Chart















UVXY reached fork resistance yesterday, and is due to cool off short term.  A test of the midfork seems probable next.  Following a cooling off period, a final spike up is likely.

30min Chart

Posted by at

22 comments:

  1. SCOctober 24, 2012 at 6:06 AM

    The short term SPX cycle looks positive into Fri, and then turns negative into Oct 31st.

    ReplyDelete
  2. SCOctober 24, 2012 at 8:01 AM

    SPX can bounce as high as 1450 next, then 1380 will be my targeted low mid Nov. That ends the gradual declining phase.

    ReplyDelete
  3. SCOctober 24, 2012 at 1:18 PM

    Still a little soft today, but firming up generally. VIX closed down today, and a turn up soon for SPX looks likely.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Alex TOctober 24, 2012 at 1:54 PM

    Hi SC,

    Whats your short term target for SPX ? Still 1450 ?

    Thanks,
    Alex

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCOctober 24, 2012 at 5:21 PM

      Alex, 1445 area SPX. 1450 maximum.

      Delete
    2. SCOctober 24, 2012 at 5:24 PM

      I think SPX can pop higher for a few days now, then weak into Oct 31st, then another push up to that target level early Nov.

      Delete
  5. SCOctober 25, 2012 at 9:13 AM

    SPX managed a squeaker low today, but in contrast VIX is a fair amount lower than a few days ago. My XIV has a higher low this morning.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Alex TOctober 25, 2012 at 9:30 AM

    Any target low for SPX before rebound ??

    ReplyDelete
  7. Jay StraussOctober 25, 2012 at 12:41 PM

    NOT going to make it over 1422 today and or tomorrow
    EKG shows up open on 26th but lower after.
    Oct29th next critical low
    but should continue lower till Nov13 before finding a floor
    Jay

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCOctober 25, 2012 at 1:09 PM

      I still think bounce first but I also agree a lower low in Nov. 1380 SPX is support imo.

      Delete
  8. UnknownOctober 26, 2012 at 6:49 AM

    hi SC,
    what entry level are you looking for UVXY?
    are you expecting to buy today?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCOctober 26, 2012 at 7:02 AM

      I'm just sitting back and waiting for now. May wait for Monday, but let's see how thing unfold today.

      Delete
  9. UnknownOctober 26, 2012 at 7:09 AM

    thanks

    ReplyDelete
  10. Alex TOctober 26, 2012 at 8:11 AM

    Hi SC,

    U think we will hit 1380ish on SPX before rebounding ??
    How does next week look ?

    Thanks,
    Alex

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCOctober 26, 2012 at 8:27 AM

      A lot of sideways chop lately, and the bounces have been only small. It might drift lower but I see big support at 1380.

      Also, imo we're nearing the end of my gradual declining phase for SPX from mid Sept. Therefore, I am generally being more careful with shorting during Nov.

      As well, I think we'll see a new high for SPX this year.

      Delete
  11. AMOctober 26, 2012 at 2:44 PM

    SC, updated chart with your recent calls.
    So you are saying its a broad top formation?

    http://i1266.photobucket.com/albums/jj536/charts101/scsSPXpDyr2mn0dy0ip32370625066a2808_zpse9bf3980.png

    Have a good weekend.

    ReplyDelete
  12. SCOctober 26, 2012 at 4:28 PM

    Bottom line:

    We are in the late stages of my gradual declining phase for SPX from mid Sept. SPX will likely eke out a new high by a few points this year in my view. UVXY has already bottomed in my view, but will likely retest near the low.

    The bigger picture after that is far more important.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Alex TOctober 29, 2012 at 7:32 AM

    Hi SC

    How does the market shutdown impact your cycles ?
    Will they get shifted ?

    Thanks,
    Alex

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCOctober 29, 2012 at 8:11 AM

      I'll have an update out shortly. The cycles I use continue as normal whether the market is open or closed. Actually I have cycle data for Saturdays, and Sundays as well.

      Delete
  14. SantaOctober 29, 2012 at 8:14 AM

    Hi SC

    wondering your long term forecast last weekend. Has that been cancel due to Sandy?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCOctober 29, 2012 at 8:22 AM

      I'll have that in November for sure. Waiting for specific timing of cycles.

      Delete

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)