In contrast, the second half of the week looks negative. The white trendline short term downside target appears due to be tested early in October.
30min Chart
Sunday, September 30, 2012
$SPX - Spike Up Next
The cycle analysis is very positive for SPX early this week. Therefore, a spike up fairly sharply looks likely, and top out during the middle of the week.
In contrast, the second half of the week looks negative. The white trendline short term downside target appears due to be tested early in October.
30min Chart
In contrast, the second half of the week looks negative. The white trendline short term downside target appears due to be tested early in October.
30min Chart
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Nice to see an update.
ReplyDeleteI'm surprised that not that many are calling it what is it right now... a little H/S /bear flag, as part of a larger H/S formation.
I think more likely, we spike lower early this week, and then UP - regardless of how lousy the jobs data might be.
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Regardless....good luck !
I consider this situation a high probability of a spike higher next mainly from my cycles. Silver and Crude futures are holding fairly well right now I notice, and seem to be signalling a higher market also next.
DeleteThe coming spike won't last though imo. This should be an interesting week with larger than usual movements than we have seen in recent weeks.
Thanks, and all the best to you as well!
Nice spike up overnight. Tomorrow looks stronger than today in the SPX cycle analysis.
ReplyDeleteKaboom, SPX hit the yellow line and is settling back a little right now. Still more to rally...
ReplyDeleteHi,
DeleteDo you still believe UVXY will pop back up to $38 by the end of this week even with your forecasted spike in SPX over the next few days?
I guess I am trying to understand your game plan with your current UVXY positions that are averaging around $34 I believe?
thanks in advance...
I sold a bunch of UVXY on Fri at $31 due to this positive cycle in SPX coming.
DeleteSo now I am waiting to buy UVXY big at $24 to $25 area. I believe this week will mark THE bottom for UVXY in my bigger picture plan.
After the bottom is in I expect UVXY to spike up to $38.50 soon, hover there and run to the $43 target. Very exciting.
SC, so then at 43.5 ride over? How about that VIX to 48 analysis?
DeleteOnce UVXY reaches that $43 short term target, then I am expecting it to dip again. So that is why I plan to sell at the $43 level, and reload.
DeleteThe bigger charts and targets are coming soon.
Hi SC, do you feel today was the high in this spike up on the SPX or do you see a little more in it? It seems to have sold down from it's high point here even as Ben was speaking. Does not look to convincing here. When you look at shorting SPX?
ReplyDeleteIt seems SPX is just consolidating here to push higher from my point of view. 1465 to 1470 is possible in day or two, and would be a great short imo.
DeleteZZ's calling for down into the 4th...this should be interesting...
ReplyDeleteBought XIV at $16.92 for a hedge. Now I'm neutral. I'm expecting the market to pop, and won't hold XIV for long.
ReplyDelete$32 is important for UVXY and there should be resistance there for now.
DeleteI am with ZZ on this one SC, down into the 4th, up into the 9th, and then down from there.
ReplyDeleteLet's see how it shakes out. Tomorrow looks positive in my work.
Deleteaccording to ZZ, tomorrow is a bottom, top, Wed, bttm Thurs than up again to the 9th.
DeleteSo you may be right SC, tomorrow morning low, than up into Wed.
Thanks, that is quite similar to what I am seeing.
DeleteIs today still positive in your work?
ReplyDeleteYes, today/tomorrow are positive. So far a little soft, but hanging in there too...
Deleteeveryone calling for a spike...yet not seeing it...
ReplyDeleteMy minimum green target area for a spike was reached on Monday. Since then it has been more of a sideways churn than anything else.
DeleteHi SC, are you still looking to buy UVXY today ?
ReplyDeleteAt the moment I am positioned basically neutral. I am waiting to see if UVXY can dip for a good entry. Today should be interesting, need to see things play out a little more.
DeleteI am waiting for a nice, clean signal. A lot of whipsaws currently.
DeleteHi SC do you think this bounce is done and we are heading down to the 1420 area next? Are you starting go go short here?
ReplyDeleteThanks for the great work
Thanks Muzz. I think I will wait until tomorrow to see how things play out in the morning.
ReplyDeleteSo, I guess we are entering in the negative part of the week, SC
ReplyDeleteWe're getting to that part, and I am watching closely, but still early to say at this point.
DeleteThe Presidential reality TV show 'debate' (hardly a debate!) could be the news that moves the mkt up....the 'criminals' in power will use this as a tool to ramp the mkt showing who's boss!
ReplyDeleteAll we we need then is the false flag to divert the masses away from the reality of deflation & job done!
Will be interesting to see what news causes the pullback....for sure there is a lot of distribution in the mkts at the moment. The risk currencies AUD & NZD are having a hard time getting off the floor..
Hoping for a spike!
The market is rallying and may have more to go. I still think a dip is likely tomorrow/Monday though.
ReplyDeleteFirst, need to see this rally finish.
I think the main question is when can we expect a few weeks of consistent down trend for the SPX to start if at all. Currently everyone is getting whipsawed with their UVXY positions.
ReplyDeleteI still don't think we have a bottom for UVXY. So it is a waiting game. However, it's close to the turning point. My bigger picture charts will show the phases. First, need to wait for a bottom.
DeleteThere we go, now that is a spike!
ReplyDeleteSC October 1, 2012 12:13 PM
"It seems SPX is just consolidating here to push higher from my point of view. 1465 to 1470 is possible in day or two, and would be a great short imo."
DOW UPDATE
ReplyDeletehttp://traderjoed.blogspot.com/
Joe,
DeleteTks for your chart. If I am reading it correctly, it seems to show an increasing index for a few more days before it starts declining. What it doesn't show is how far and how long it goes down. Not sure if your system can forecast that far down the road although I believe you once mentioned that October would be down into the election.
Tks again for your input.
testy 99
DeleteMy work goes out 10 yrs if I want it to......but I am a firm believer in everyone doing their own work! Yes I am looking for price pressure down! joed
SC, could this be the gradual rise stage for UVXY? it seems tomorrow could be a possible turn date for the SPX...
ReplyDeleteYour thinking is along the right lines.
DeleteOnce the bottom is in, then the gradual phase starts in my big picture. I doubt the bottom is in place, yet though. It needs more time to develop, but getting close also.
sc... you realize you have been calling for this gradual phase in uvxy, as well as large drop in market since JULY...
ReplyDeleteThis entire year has been a topping process in my big picture. Big moves take a lot of patience to unfold, and that is when the most profits are made.
ReplyDeletetrue about big moves statement but uvxy has been taking a beating during this time which means active trading in and out or not trading it at all would have been the best decision in hind-sight.
DeleteSC, i think this would be a good spot to load up, dont you think?
ReplyDeleteI'm still waiting. Market is holding in here so far.
Deletewho knows about exact timing with current market. Suprisingly, even zig zag's low for today did not pan out so Oct 9th high may not as well.
Deletei would think you would want to wait until after the jobs report tomorrow morning just in case the index pops up again before deciding next steps. Just my 2 cents...
Why are you trying to short the market when clearly the bullish trading channel has not been broken yet and SMA 9 (monthly) has not crossed below SMA 20 yet ?, during the trend up the strategy should be 'sell the rip and buy the dip', not shorting the market with a dangerous instrument like UVXY...definitely not buy and hold UVXY for sure...in my opinion.
ReplyDeleteThere is plenty money to be made when this bulls channel break down, so why try to stand in front of this moving train...wait for the proper signal before going seriously short. Don't be greedy and jump the gun because you may get killed by your own weapon, in my opinion
ReplyDeleteAgreed....UVXY goes down 10% per month from decay anyway!
Delete