The Deja Vu pattern suggests that SPX is likely to rattle up and down mostly within the top half of the pink fork for several more weeks. There are spots above that could be tested soon.
As well, dips to test the pink midfork are probable in December. This week could finish strong with possible weakness early next week.
30min Chart
SC,
ReplyDeleteThanks for your update! after testing the pink midfork in early Dec, is SPX likely to hit 1450 or above, like many others have expected?
Thank you Darren,
DeleteI'll have an update for UVXY coming later. The symmetry still suggests lower. I do think there will be some spots coming for good bounces in Dec.
After the midfork is tested, then SPX is likely to head right back to the top of the pink channel again, and probably overshoot somewhat higher. From there dip right back down again.
ReplyDeleteYes I do think we'll see 1450 and above but the market will not be ready for a real or strong breakout for many weeks yet in my analysis.
So we just rattle up and down, up, and down in the pink channel.
ic. thx a lot!
ReplyDeleteSC,
ReplyDeleteIs "very serious warning" still valid?
http://i1266.photobucket.com/albums/jj536/charts101/scsSPXpDyr2mn0dy0ip32370625066a2808_zps0c5f984d.png
Absolutely now so more than ever. It is a requirement to use caution due to the big picture cycles. I have just started to post big picture cycles.
DeleteWhat is your time target for when the roll over would occur?
DeleteBy end of dec/jan/feb ?
This sharp rally phase should be over in less than 2 weeks.
Deletethanks. updated recent calls:
Deletehttp://i1266.photobucket.com/albums/jj536/charts101/scsSPXpDyr2mn0dy0ip32370625066a2808_zps62e5bf28.png
Target reached so I just took 37 points S&P profit.
ReplyDeleteSCNovember 28, 2012 8:18 AM
"Found support, may be heading up to around 1415 or so next."
December looks VERY choppy.
ReplyDeleteShort S&P at 1418. Early next week looks negative in my work. Will plan to cover around 1390 or so early next week.
ReplyDeleteBought UVXY at $18.87 for pop to $20 to $21.
ReplyDeleteWe should be drop to 1390 at least early next week, then spike up again to higher levels. Could see 1450ish in 10 days or so. The sharp rally phase would then be finishing.
ReplyDeleteI'm going to put up a more detailed chart on the weekend with targets and timing for December.
ReplyDeleteToday/tomorrow could be relatively quiet, maybe trade in the 1400 to 1410 area. Then negative and drop further early next week.
ReplyDeleteI think your on the right track with the Short, but it may not go below 1400....But this impulse rally that started at 10am does look exhausted..
ReplyDeleteI like SPX 1390 but probably not more than that on a dip.
Deletehey SC did this Boehner guy tip you off or something ?
ReplyDeleteSeems like he's the new Bernake....what ever comes out of his mouth moves the market these days.
I think the fiscal cliff drama is getting silly, but I will say that we should see a dip next to 1390 for the market. Next week the media will say markets are dipping on "nervousness to reach a deal". Then in 1-2 weeks expect a deal to be struck and market to spike up to 1450ish.
DeleteSlow day, hovering at resistance. Perhaps I am a day early in positioning and a few points, but a ton of resistance overhead now imo.
ReplyDeleteUVXY could see as much as $23 or $24 next week.
ReplyDeleteMaximum.
DeleteDecember is going to be a trader's month. Detailed December plan will be posted on the weekend for both SPX and UVXY.
ReplyDeleteCurrently short at 1418, and planning to cover (around 1390) Sept 4th. There is heavy resistance in the 1420's in my work.
ReplyDeleteQuite a serious pop for UVXY this morning off the bottom. Good signal today for a reversal to the downside in SPX. My expectations are not too high for today, but I think we are heading lower for 3 or 4 days now.
ReplyDeleteHello SC
Deletewondering if you happen to have a target for the low for SPX that can share with us?
Thanks!
A short term target you mean for next week?
Deleteyeah just a short term target for next week.
DeleteThanks!
I think the range of targets is in the 1378 to 1390 range. I plan to cover my short around 1390 to be conservative because I do expect a bounce to follow that.
DeleteIn my model this is a fairly low risk short since the model suggest lower for 3-4 days not just a quick dip such as we saw on Wed.
Pleased with how my model is working. It even suggested that a quiet market was likely yesterday and today. So far so good.
ReplyDeleteSCNovember 29, 2012 7:00 AM
"Today/tomorrow could be relatively quiet, maybe trade in the 1400 to 1410 area. Then negative and drop further early next week."
Seeing that VIX is up 3%....should not UVXY not be up twice that and be up 6%?
ReplyDeleteNo it tracks the VIX futures rather than the VIX itself. So it will vary in performance. What I like about UVXY today though is that the S&P is down 2 points, and VIX and UVXY are up a considerable amount.
DeleteIt is a bearish indication for next week imo.