Finding the edge in analyzing unique market Cycles.
It will be helpful to see confirmation this coming week for SPX. It is preferable to see regular hours trading rather than after hours S&P futures.
I'll plan to go short at around 1430 SPX.
SC, where do you see the important red trendline located on Monday, around 1360 area according to the graph #1?
1365 SPX on Monday. I do not expect that to be hit though. Futures came close enough on Friday that it could be considered a test.
I have a whole stack of big picture charts coming soon. There is much more to say about the interpretation and the implications of these cycles. I've been waiting as the phases unfold, and it is time to bring up a number of important issues.
Hi SC,do you think it's good time to buy UVXY on Monday? Since SPX will reach 1365.
No, I believe UVXY will cool off in January. So I will wait for it to settle again to take my positions. SPX is near a low in my model, and the model suggests a bounce to around 1430 or so. UVXY should therefore cool off.As well, in my model, we are also entering into the "quiet period" soon. I called the next SPX phase the quiet period because it should be a period of low volatility. Of course, I am keenly watching UVXY. It's time is coming, but I won't chase here. Waiting.
A lot of funny business with UVXY today.VIX and VIX futures are down about 9%. UVXY should be down about 14-18%, yet UVXY is only down 4.8%. I would stay out, at least until Wednesday.
Current oversold condition requires a short term rally on some promising news from Congress--today & Jan 2nd should recover some lost groundlaterJay
when is the market close today?thanks
Regular hours today I believe.
Exited my S&P trade at 1406 for a 4 point loss. I'll wait for things to setup better.
So, even when you are right, you still lose money?
I'll be looking for confirmation this week. My focus is shifting from short term moves to positioning for the bigger picture cycle.
What is going on with XIV and VXX? they are off by a few percentages and no longer inverses?
Something strange is going on there for sure.UVXY down, VXX up, and XIV down.I'm going to look into this.
Nice forum by the way, been following this blog for a while. First time posting.VIX futures are way down, so they are not following anything as of this moment, weird!I don't think anyone should trade these two days. Today or Tomorrow, we either have a mini-crash or we rally strong. Too much risk...
Thank you,I agree that things are too fractured in the short term to really get me interested in trading short term moves. For one thing, I don't like how the S&P futures are making moves that are not following through in regular hours. We've seen this twice in the last week. So I much prefer to wait for a proper setup.
Happy New Year SC, to you still see a short term move up in the markets to the 1440 area before the next sell off.
Happy New Year to you as well Muzz!I'm not sure how it will play out this week, it could head lower first, but not too much imo. Supports at 1378 to 1390 imo (which has been tested in the futures) and the Cycle suggests a move to 1430-1435 or so SPX.