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Monday, October 29, 2012

$SPX - Short Term Update

So far SPX has had difficulty pushing up through the pink fork resistance last week, and consolidated sideways instead of bouncing much.  However, there is support at 1400 which has been holding. 

It may, or may not, trade a little lower this week, but there are numerous supports just below in any case.

Overall, the analysis indicates that the gradual decline phase from mid-September should be nearly complete.  There are very positive spots in November short term cycles.  The market could soon be in a position to spike up surprisingly sharply.

2 hour Chart
 
This fork has done an excellent job of defining resistance.  Fork resistance has been holding so far.  Even if it manages to push up here, then there should be heavy resistance just above (around the orange line).

A re-test of near the bottom is likely for UVXY in November. 

30min Chart
Posted by at

34 comments:

  1. SCOctober 29, 2012 at 9:59 AM

    So we'll see how things shape up once the markets re-open. A little lower probably is most likely next, but overall a strong push up in November looks probable.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Jay StraussOctober 30, 2012 at 7:00 AM

    HI SC
    Nov 23 is a strong fibo convergence that looks like a possible pivot low to kick off a year end rally. So any low at 1400 or under prior to that date could struggle along till then. How does that compare with what your cycle work shows- TIA-Jay

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCOctober 30, 2012 at 7:35 AM

      Generally I think bottom out soon, and rally early Nov. The market could be quite positive around the election I suspect.

      Around Nov 21-22nd my cycle analysis does look weak. I think this may be a higher low.

      Delete
  3. Alex TOctober 31, 2012 at 8:51 AM

    Hi SC,

    How do you see the SPX playing out here ?

    Thanks,
    Alex

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCOctober 31, 2012 at 9:06 AM

      Tricky spot in terms of the short term. The market is quiet, and I may just sit back and let things play out a little more here.

      Delete
  4. joedOctober 31, 2012 at 9:11 AM

    DOW

    http://img40.imageshack.us/img40/5444/dowk.jpg

    ReplyDelete
  5. Alex TOctober 31, 2012 at 1:37 PM

    Any takes from today SC ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCOctober 31, 2012 at 1:57 PM

      Generally I think there is a rally brewing but it still seems it may dip a little more first. Let's wait and see tomorrow. I'd like to see a clear signal.

      Delete
  6. Alex TNovember 1, 2012 at 7:24 AM

    Pretty good move in SPX ? SC , you still think a dip possible ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCNovember 1, 2012 at 7:39 AM

      The dips seem to be limited to the futures overnight but not following through into regular hours.

      I doubt it is ready to break out just yet, but certainly there are signs of strenghtening now for SPX.

      Delete
    2. SS76November 1, 2012 at 7:56 AM

      Internals feel weak, and VXX had huge volume yesterday. I think the SPX will break down as soon as this afternoon.

      Delete
    3. SCNovember 1, 2012 at 8:29 AM

      I think around the election is most likely for a real breakout and rally. The bottom may be in, but probably settle and cool off for a few days prior to the election.

      Delete
  7. mickNovember 1, 2012 at 10:16 AM

    when you buying UVXY 28 ?

    ReplyDelete
  8. SCNovember 1, 2012 at 10:35 AM

    Yesterday UVXY failed at the pink fork resistance. I may look to enter around $27.50 which would be just below the midfork support (for a bounce to $30ish).

    ReplyDelete
  9. SCNovember 1, 2012 at 12:06 PM

    Sold my XIV at $17.12.

    ReplyDelete
  10. SCNovember 1, 2012 at 12:08 PM

    I only had a modest position in XIV from $16.15. I thought there may be the opportunity to add more lower this week, but the market held up well. So I never added unfortunately.

    I sold it because UVXY reached my midfork support at $27.75.

    ReplyDelete
  11. SCNovember 1, 2012 at 12:09 PM

    I may look to enter UVXY in the low $27 area for a pop to $30ish next few days.

    ReplyDelete
  12. mickNovember 1, 2012 at 12:46 PM

    you may get 26's today

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCNovember 1, 2012 at 12:50 PM

      Maybe. $26.50 is another spot if it doesn't stop in the low $27 area.

      Delete
  13. SCNovember 1, 2012 at 12:46 PM

    Bought UVXY at $27.25.

    ReplyDelete
  14. mickNovember 2, 2012 at 5:56 AM

    pre market 26

    ReplyDelete
  15. SCNovember 2, 2012 at 6:27 AM

    I think SPX should top out today, and drop into early next week. Then push higher again.

    ReplyDelete
  16. StockboomNovember 2, 2012 at 6:47 AM

    I am just surprised to see HVU made new low...when UVXI didn't make new low! anyone has any information why that happened?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCNovember 2, 2012 at 7:08 AM

      My data shows the low at $6.92 for Oct, and $7.16 today. I overlayed both charts and they are still in tune with each other according to my data.

      Delete
  17. SCNovember 2, 2012 at 7:03 AM

    SPX reached near the short term target area from Oct 24th analysis. That target analysis was done before the storm. Not an easy market to navigate, but the cycles still seem to be on track.

    I think it likely drops early next week to retest the bottom 1410 area.

    ReplyDelete
  18. StockboomNovember 2, 2012 at 7:11 AM

    Thanks SC, my mistake I was looking at different number!

    When you planning to add your next batch of UVXI?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCNovember 2, 2012 at 7:15 AM

      Would have been better to wait for today, but I bought UVXY yesterday at $27.25. Plan to sell on a decent pop $28's or $29's early next week. Then I'll look to reenter UVXY late next week.

      Delete
  19. AfshaikhNovember 2, 2012 at 9:35 AM

    SPX already testing 1420 level...down big for the day yet UVXY at a 2 month low....Have you heard of Decay ?

    ReplyDelete
  20. SCNovember 2, 2012 at 11:09 AM

    I'm out of UVXY at $27.23 for breakeven.

    ReplyDelete
  21. SCNovember 2, 2012 at 11:11 AM

    UVXY could go higher but decided to play it safe here. Even if it goes higher here, I pretty sure it'll be lower next week anyways.

    ReplyDelete
  22. SCNovember 2, 2012 at 11:14 AM

    Probably just sit in cash for weekend.

    ReplyDelete
  23. SCNovember 2, 2012 at 12:12 PM

    Should have had more patience.

    ReplyDelete
  24. Alex TNovember 2, 2012 at 1:19 PM

    Hi SC,

    What u think about next week based on today's action ??

    Thanks,
    Alex

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCNovember 2, 2012 at 1:28 PM

      I have some interesting charts coming this weekend.

      Most likely the market heads a little lower on Monday, but I think the SPX is going to spike wildly up next week.

      Delete

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