Therefore, a dip is likely this week, and unlike the last brief dip (Tuesday/Wednesday last week) this one may spend 3-4 days time near a low around the target area 1390 (+/-).
30min Chart
The short term trend remains up. There will be dips. The sharp rally phase is anticipated to be underway for weeks to come.
Of critical importance is the red trendline. Compare the red trendlines in this chart and on the following Deja Vu cycle.
2hour Chart
Deja Vu Cycle:
In the Deja Vu cycle, SPX is currently trading at the yellow arrow.
Once the red trendline breaks, then SPX becomes extremely dangerous.
Daily Chart
5-Year Cycle Update:
In the bigger picture, SPX is struggling at the midfork resistance, and was rejected again in September. The 5-year cycle was due officially in October though it can come in early or late.
Even though the short term trend remains up, and the sharp rally phase continues, it is a requirement going forward to use caution.
In the bigger picture, large cycles are due, and support is dramatically lower.
7day Chart
The SPY analysis here lines up perfectly with the currency/forex markets anaysis at http://www.forexkong.com
ReplyDeleteI've been following both for some time....and in combination...it looks like getting short the dollar sure makes sense
Not going to be a good day for UVXY or VIX related products. Futures looks to open higher. if SP can stay above 1420 then UVXY will erase all its gains on Friday. Then it will be back to the drawing board.
ReplyDeletenew 52wk low on UVXY
ReplyDeleteLet's see what happens next. There should be resistance at this level for SPX, and we tested the 50 dma at 1421 also this morning I see.
ReplyDeleteVIX itself is holding up this morning.
This is a natural spot for a dip in SPX.
Hi SC
Deletestill feel you call is spot on again. GJ.
Quick question, do you do training for others? looking to learn this cycle stuff, think you are really good at it.
Thanks!
Thank you.
DeleteI have not done training, but have had others interested. Most of my work is not shown on the site so perhaps I could organize something more structured.
Hi SC
Deletethat would be awesome. Looking forward to this event.
Thanks!
lets see what happens
ReplyDeleteVIX is holding up
but Jan futures is down over 3%
ISM Employment initial drop , now market being bought back up
There is support at SPX 1415 and then 1410.
DOW UPDATE
ReplyDeletehttp://traderjoed.blogspot.com/
Hi Joed
DeleteThanks for the updates.
Thanks!
INVESTBB
DeleteHAPPY HOLIDAYS to all and your families! Wish all of ya the best for 2013! joed
When I look at the SPX pop off the Nov bottom it just does not look sustainable at this pace.
ReplyDeleteI still think we are due for a breather, dip, consolidation. How much of a dip is debateable for sure. 1390 is a reasonable estimate, and support at 1380 looks strong so doubt below that.
U have been nailing these, SC. Great charts. THanks so much.
ReplyDeleteThank you my friend. Looking to rack up some nice trades prior to xmas!
DeleteHey SC , great work, Job well done and yes , lets make some nice trades prior to xmas :-)
ReplyDeleteHi SC,
ReplyDeleteYou sold your UVXY?
Thanks
No, I'm still holding from $18.87 entry. I'll likely give it time for a day or two.
DeleteI think he is still holding...he bought at 18.87, so selling now would cover commission fees...
ReplyDeleteI think if it closes below 1410 today then your 1390 target looks good this week....
I'm afraid its too early to conclude anything...The SP close will tell the tale
I do agree 1410 is important.
DeleteHi SC
ReplyDeleteare you planning on selling your UVXY around today's price 20ish?
Thanks!
May wait until tomorrow.
DeleteSP at a critical level here...if 1410 gives away...might be able to get another 5%-10% or more on UVXY trade
ReplyDeleteWatching currencies - the direction is more than clear.
ReplyDeleteThe dollar is gonna take a serious nose dive as per Kong's posts.
http://www.forexkong.com
HI SC
ReplyDeletethis week, we should expect choppy action within a narrow range.
got to 1424 =62% retrace and now should break under 1403, but not by much- Dec12th has a better chance of getting to the 1380 level. ONCE that date is out of the way and we get a decent pivot low from which they can then get that XMAS rally to 1433 and maybe 1447, but it really matters not at this moment how high it gets to; IT'S more important to catch that rally from the 13th to the 21st/24th.
thanks
Jay
It looks like we just started to dip yesterday. This dip should take time to play out. There is some support in this 1400-1410 area. So may rattle around this level before dropping below.
ReplyDeleteIn any case SPX is on the downswing for a while now imo.
Hello SC
ReplyDeleteSo you planning to hold your UVXY from 18.87 ish today till tomorrow? and not sell today?
Thanks
I may be interested in selling it in the $21's if that happens today. Though generally there probably is no rush to cover shorts since my analysis indicates this dip probably will take time to play out.
DeleteNext step for the bears would be to test around 1400.
ReplyDeletejust got pass 21 in UVXY, SC you selling?
ReplyDeleteThanks!
Probably I'll take profit soon.
DeleteSold all my UVXY at $21.24.
DeleteEarly perhaps but "a bird in hand is worth 2 in the bush"
Deleteme toooooooooo
ReplyDelete21.17 actually cuz i like 7s
ReplyDeleteVery nice!
DeleteHi SC
ReplyDeletewith you selling UVXY, are you now expecting the pullback on UVXY to start? or you still see us making 23-24 range before the pullback, and you just selling abit early to lock in profit just in case?
Thanks!
My thinking is that UVXY may retrace back from the $21, and could push higher after that. So I'll just sit back here and wait and see if there is another spot to enter.
DeleteAs well the short term trend for SPX remains up from Nov so good idea to be conservative with shorts.
Nice Trade...give credit where credit is due....
ReplyDeleteYou have been bang on with the smaller time frames lately....I'm glad that you stopped giving long term views on UVXY...(ie $400 UVXY pre split)
A lot of people lost big money that way...and I hope you realize that this way you have credibility when you post your trades...rather than just wishful thinking.
I still think we are heading for a bigger market but it is better to take it one step at a time.
DeleteSc can u please posy chart of uvxy
ReplyDeleteYes, will do.
DeleteHi SC
ReplyDeletewondering the next spot of entry for UVXY are you looking for? something below 20?
Thanks!
It'll be helpful to see the market unfold some more next. $19.50 or so is an interesting spot if there is a decent retracement.
DeleteHello Joed
ReplyDeletenot sure if you can see this, but looking at new EMINI DAILY chart at your site. Looks like the current price already hit the line equal to the top of the blue line on the right if you draw a straight line across. Does that mean the price already reach before time passed? confused. Or does it mean we will drop down now and then will eventually reach that high again when the time passed (think the chart showing to near end of december).
Thanks!
This comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteThe blue line is just symbolic of the overall market cycle for that instrument (ES) (up, down, up, down....).
DeleteThe blue line is not referencing price at all.
What you are looking for is "time" to come into "price", not price to come into time. So a cycle low (time) was reached in the early Nov window and was likely met with a price (support) at that time. The current cycle time window according to that chart is looking for a smaller cycle to peak within a time window (red arrows). The smaller cycles operate within the larger cycle. Smaller cycles could be days/weeks within a larger cycle that lasts months/years. Similarly, smaller cycles could be hours/minutes within a larger cycle that lasts days/weeks.
Note that in all of this, very little explanation was given to price, rather, the focus is primarily on time.
So your natural question would be "has price been met already within the time window, and are we going higher or lower from here?" Fortunately, there are a few other tools available to help one reach that conclusion.
JoeD is your man.
Hope this helps.
SC,
ReplyDeleteWhen you are saying UVXY will drop back to $19.5 and then move higher, do you mean it will take place before the next surge in SPX, by mid Dec supposedly?
It seems possible, but will let this play out some more. Market basically shuffling sideways for now.
DeleteI'll probably wait for tomorrow before making any moves.
DeleteOr even Fri for that matter.
Deleteyou've nailed it! i basically followed your path to quit uvxy. now it seems that SPX will rise for one or two days, then uvxy may hit another good entry point by fri. but will spx go up to 1430 or so by fri?
DeleteHi SC,
ReplyDeleteDo u think negotiations of "fiscal cliff" could press SPX down a lot recently?
There will be dips, but in December I still think the short term trend is up from the Nov bottom.
DeleteCovered my S&P short at 1400 for 18 points gain. Suspect SPX may bounce back to 1415 area.
ReplyDeleteHi SC
Deletesorry but when did you get into short S&P? didnt see that posted, just thought you sold all your UVXY.
Thanks!
SCNovember 29, 2012 6:48 AM
Delete"Short S&P at 1418. Early next week looks negative in my work. Will plan to cover around 1390 or so early next week."
May short again in a few days.
DeleteHi SC,
ReplyDeleteCovered my S&P short at 1400 for 18 points gain.
I don't understand. Can you tell me what stock you shorted?
Just a short on the S&P 500 index.
DeleteSC, are you shorting again here as SPX back to 1415 level?
ReplyDeleteI think could dip to 1403 again, then back to 1418 or so around this Fri. So there may be a small trade here, but in a few days looks better to short imo.
DeleteI still think we can see 1390 or lower.
Sorry SC, I still don't understand how to short SPX. what symbol do you use to short? thank you first.
ReplyDeleteWell there are a number of different ways to position in the market. Many different types of both long and short etfs etc...
DeleteYou can short the SPX by buying put options or selling futures, or you can short the SPY, SSO, or UPRO ETFs directly, or you can buy an inverse ETF (SH, SDS, SPXU, etc). Or you can even build a synthetic short by buying puts and selling calls.
DeleteI think shorting SPY or buying SH would be easiest for you, as you don't seem very familiar with these instruments.
Thank you. Currently reviewing and will do an update soon. I'm in no rush to long or short at the moment.
ReplyDeleteThank you Darren! Right now we're sort of in the "middle ground" so I'll wait for the next setup.
ReplyDeleteWorking on an update.
Bears did test 1398 yesterday, and so covered shorts. Waiting.
ReplyDeleteSCDecember 4, 2012 7:24 AM
"Next step for the bears would be to test around 1400."
SC, what SPX level are you looking to short, still around 1418? Interesting that the VIX, dollar, and SPX all in green today.
ReplyDeleteEverything is quiet so I am just sitting back for a while here.
DeleteWill have some thoughts and an update coming soon.
DeleteHi SC,
ReplyDeleteAre you planning to buy back UVXY with today's drop?
No, I did see $19.48 for UVXY in premarket this morning. I'm going to pass on it. May not bounce enough.
DeleteSPX approaching the next target area on the chart above. I think we'll see some chop but only minor movement.
I'm basically neutral here expecting a relatively tight market 1412 to 1427 range for a few days next.
I have a detailed update coming this weekend.
Where is that Humble Guy? You called a possible crash in C and XLF few days ago, great job again!
ReplyDeleteHI SC
ReplyDeleteMonday AM open might show us a new direction
later
Jay