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Saturday, December 1, 2012

$SPX - December Plan

The targeted band of resistance was reached for SPX last week.  Price stalled at that level. 

Therefore, a dip is likely this week, and unlike the last brief dip (Tuesday/Wednesday last week) this one may spend 3-4 days time near a low around the target area 1390 (+/-).

30min Chart















The short term trend remains up.  There will be dips.  The sharp rally phase is anticipated to be underway for weeks to come.

Of critical importance is the red trendline.  Compare the red trendlines in this chart and on the following Deja Vu cycle.

2hour Chart 















Deja Vu Cycle:

In the Deja Vu cycle, SPX is currently trading at the yellow arrow. 

Once the red trendline breaks, then SPX becomes extremely dangerous.

Daily Chart















5-Year Cycle Update:

In the bigger picture, SPX is struggling at the midfork resistance, and was rejected again in September.  The 5-year cycle was due officially in October though it can come in early or late.

Even though the short term trend remains up, and the sharp rally phase continues, it is a requirement going forward to use caution. 

In the bigger picture, large cycles are due, and support is dramatically lower. 

7day Chart

 

74 comments:

  1. The SPY analysis here lines up perfectly with the currency/forex markets anaysis at http://www.forexkong.com

    I've been following both for some time....and in combination...it looks like getting short the dollar sure makes sense

    ReplyDelete
  2. Not going to be a good day for UVXY or VIX related products. Futures looks to open higher. if SP can stay above 1420 then UVXY will erase all its gains on Friday. Then it will be back to the drawing board.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Let's see what happens next. There should be resistance at this level for SPX, and we tested the 50 dma at 1421 also this morning I see.

    VIX itself is holding up this morning.

    This is a natural spot for a dip in SPX.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi SC

      still feel you call is spot on again. GJ.

      Quick question, do you do training for others? looking to learn this cycle stuff, think you are really good at it.

      Thanks!

      Delete
    2. Thank you.

      I have not done training, but have had others interested. Most of my work is not shown on the site so perhaps I could organize something more structured.

      Delete
    3. Hi SC

      that would be awesome. Looking forward to this event.


      Thanks!

      Delete
  4. lets see what happens

    VIX is holding up

    but Jan futures is down over 3%

    ISM Employment initial drop , now market being bought back up

    There is support at SPX 1415 and then 1410.

    ReplyDelete
  5. DOW UPDATE

    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Joed

      Thanks for the updates.


      Thanks!

      Delete
    2. INVESTBB

      HAPPY HOLIDAYS to all and your families! Wish all of ya the best for 2013! joed

      Delete
  6. When I look at the SPX pop off the Nov bottom it just does not look sustainable at this pace.

    I still think we are due for a breather, dip, consolidation. How much of a dip is debateable for sure. 1390 is a reasonable estimate, and support at 1380 looks strong so doubt below that.

    ReplyDelete
  7. U have been nailing these, SC. Great charts. THanks so much.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank you my friend. Looking to rack up some nice trades prior to xmas!

      Delete
  8. Hey SC , great work, Job well done and yes , lets make some nice trades prior to xmas :-)

    ReplyDelete
  9. Replies
    1. No, I'm still holding from $18.87 entry. I'll likely give it time for a day or two.

      Delete
  10. I think he is still holding...he bought at 18.87, so selling now would cover commission fees...

    I think if it closes below 1410 today then your 1390 target looks good this week....

    I'm afraid its too early to conclude anything...The SP close will tell the tale

    ReplyDelete
  11. Hi SC

    are you planning on selling your UVXY around today's price 20ish?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  12. SP at a critical level here...if 1410 gives away...might be able to get another 5%-10% or more on UVXY trade

    ReplyDelete
  13. Watching currencies - the direction is more than clear.

    The dollar is gonna take a serious nose dive as per Kong's posts.

    http://www.forexkong.com

    ReplyDelete
  14. HI SC
    this week, we should expect choppy action within a narrow range.
    got to 1424 =62% retrace and now should break under 1403, but not by much- Dec12th has a better chance of getting to the 1380 level. ONCE that date is out of the way and we get a decent pivot low from which they can then get that XMAS rally to 1433 and maybe 1447, but it really matters not at this moment how high it gets to; IT'S more important to catch that rally from the 13th to the 21st/24th.
    thanks
    Jay

    ReplyDelete
  15. It looks like we just started to dip yesterday. This dip should take time to play out. There is some support in this 1400-1410 area. So may rattle around this level before dropping below.

    In any case SPX is on the downswing for a while now imo.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Hello SC

    So you planning to hold your UVXY from 18.87 ish today till tomorrow? and not sell today?


    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I may be interested in selling it in the $21's if that happens today. Though generally there probably is no rush to cover shorts since my analysis indicates this dip probably will take time to play out.

      Delete
  17. Next step for the bears would be to test around 1400.

    ReplyDelete
  18. just got pass 21 in UVXY, SC you selling?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Probably I'll take profit soon.

      Delete
    2. Sold all my UVXY at $21.24.

      Delete
    3. Early perhaps but "a bird in hand is worth 2 in the bush"

      Delete
  19. Hi SC

    with you selling UVXY, are you now expecting the pullback on UVXY to start? or you still see us making 23-24 range before the pullback, and you just selling abit early to lock in profit just in case?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. My thinking is that UVXY may retrace back from the $21, and could push higher after that. So I'll just sit back here and wait and see if there is another spot to enter.

      As well the short term trend for SPX remains up from Nov so good idea to be conservative with shorts.

      Delete
  20. Nice Trade...give credit where credit is due....

    You have been bang on with the smaller time frames lately....I'm glad that you stopped giving long term views on UVXY...(ie $400 UVXY pre split)

    A lot of people lost big money that way...and I hope you realize that this way you have credibility when you post your trades...rather than just wishful thinking.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I still think we are heading for a bigger market but it is better to take it one step at a time.

      Delete
  21. Sc can u please posy chart of uvxy

    ReplyDelete
  22. Hi SC

    wondering the next spot of entry for UVXY are you looking for? something below 20?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It'll be helpful to see the market unfold some more next. $19.50 or so is an interesting spot if there is a decent retracement.

      Delete
  23. Hello Joed

    not sure if you can see this, but looking at new EMINI DAILY chart at your site. Looks like the current price already hit the line equal to the top of the blue line on the right if you draw a straight line across. Does that mean the price already reach before time passed? confused. Or does it mean we will drop down now and then will eventually reach that high again when the time passed (think the chart showing to near end of december).



    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    2. The blue line is just symbolic of the overall market cycle for that instrument (ES) (up, down, up, down....).
      The blue line is not referencing price at all.
      What you are looking for is "time" to come into "price", not price to come into time. So a cycle low (time) was reached in the early Nov window and was likely met with a price (support) at that time. The current cycle time window according to that chart is looking for a smaller cycle to peak within a time window (red arrows). The smaller cycles operate within the larger cycle. Smaller cycles could be days/weeks within a larger cycle that lasts months/years. Similarly, smaller cycles could be hours/minutes within a larger cycle that lasts days/weeks.
      Note that in all of this, very little explanation was given to price, rather, the focus is primarily on time.

      So your natural question would be "has price been met already within the time window, and are we going higher or lower from here?" Fortunately, there are a few other tools available to help one reach that conclusion.

      JoeD is your man.
      Hope this helps.

      Delete
  24. SC,
    When you are saying UVXY will drop back to $19.5 and then move higher, do you mean it will take place before the next surge in SPX, by mid Dec supposedly?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It seems possible, but will let this play out some more. Market basically shuffling sideways for now.

      Delete
    2. I'll probably wait for tomorrow before making any moves.

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    3. Or even Fri for that matter.

      Delete
    4. you've nailed it! i basically followed your path to quit uvxy. now it seems that SPX will rise for one or two days, then uvxy may hit another good entry point by fri. but will spx go up to 1430 or so by fri?

      Delete
  25. Hi SC,
    Do u think negotiations of "fiscal cliff" could press SPX down a lot recently?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There will be dips, but in December I still think the short term trend is up from the Nov bottom.

      Delete
  26. Covered my S&P short at 1400 for 18 points gain. Suspect SPX may bounce back to 1415 area.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi SC

      sorry but when did you get into short S&P? didnt see that posted, just thought you sold all your UVXY.


      Thanks!

      Delete
    2. SCNovember 29, 2012 6:48 AM

      "Short S&P at 1418. Early next week looks negative in my work. Will plan to cover around 1390 or so early next week."

      Delete
    3. May short again in a few days.

      Delete
  27. Hi SC,
    Covered my S&P short at 1400 for 18 points gain.
    I don't understand. Can you tell me what stock you shorted?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Just a short on the S&P 500 index.

      Delete
  28. SC, are you shorting again here as SPX back to 1415 level?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think could dip to 1403 again, then back to 1418 or so around this Fri. So there may be a small trade here, but in a few days looks better to short imo.

      I still think we can see 1390 or lower.

      Delete
  29. Sorry SC, I still don't understand how to short SPX. what symbol do you use to short? thank you first.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Well there are a number of different ways to position in the market. Many different types of both long and short etfs etc...

      Delete
    2. You can short the SPX by buying put options or selling futures, or you can short the SPY, SSO, or UPRO ETFs directly, or you can buy an inverse ETF (SH, SDS, SPXU, etc). Or you can even build a synthetic short by buying puts and selling calls.

      I think shorting SPY or buying SH would be easiest for you, as you don't seem very familiar with these instruments.

      Delete
  30. Thank you. Currently reviewing and will do an update soon. I'm in no rush to long or short at the moment.

    ReplyDelete
  31. Thank you Darren! Right now we're sort of in the "middle ground" so I'll wait for the next setup.

    Working on an update.

    ReplyDelete
  32. Bears did test 1398 yesterday, and so covered shorts. Waiting.

    SCDecember 4, 2012 7:24 AM
    "Next step for the bears would be to test around 1400."

    ReplyDelete
  33. SC, what SPX level are you looking to short, still around 1418? Interesting that the VIX, dollar, and SPX all in green today.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Everything is quiet so I am just sitting back for a while here.

      Delete
    2. Will have some thoughts and an update coming soon.

      Delete
  34. Hi SC,
    Are you planning to buy back UVXY with today's drop?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No, I did see $19.48 for UVXY in premarket this morning. I'm going to pass on it. May not bounce enough.

      SPX approaching the next target area on the chart above. I think we'll see some chop but only minor movement.

      I'm basically neutral here expecting a relatively tight market 1412 to 1427 range for a few days next.

      I have a detailed update coming this weekend.

      Delete
  35. Where is that Humble Guy? You called a possible crash in C and XLF few days ago, great job again!

    ReplyDelete
  36. HI SC
    Monday AM open might show us a new direction
    later
    Jay

    ReplyDelete