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Sunday, December 23, 2012

$SPX - Sharp Rally Phase and VIX

The Deja Vu Cycle suggests a final spike up for SPX could occur soon to complete the sharp rally phase from the November low. 

The yellow arrow is shown to compare SPX with the location in the bigger picture Deja Vu Cycle.

VIX has been making higher highs since August.  VIX briefly traded above October/November levels on Friday.  In contrast, SPX is at much higher levels than the 1343 SPX November low. 

The behaviour of the VIX is further evidence to support the Deja Vu Cycle.  There was no fear in November during the gradual decline phase for SPX, but now fear is rising with SPX.

60min Chart










 




Bigger Picture:

Deja Vu Cycle from 2011:
 
Daily Chart
 
UVXY has been testing the lower fork and reached the green line on Friday.  UVXY is still within the downtrending fork.   

60min Chart















VIX popped on Friday, but then settled into the close. 

More importantly, notice that VIX bottomed in August, and has been making higher highs and higher lows since that time. 

VIX briefly traded above October/November levels on Friday with SPX closing almost 90 points higher than the November low for SPX. 

Daily Chart
Posted by at

28 comments:

  1. DarrenderekDecember 23, 2012 at 6:04 PM

    SC,
    Thanks for the nice charts!
    SPX spike up target?
    UVXY's entry target?
    Time frame?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCDecember 24, 2012 at 6:03 AM

      The model is quite bullish for SPX short term. With a spike up in SPX, UVXY could break below that lower fork line. So low teens looks possible during the next week or so.

      Delete
  2. UnknownDecember 23, 2012 at 6:36 PM

    Hello SC,

    Merry christmas.

    What is your timeframe and upside target for this rally?

    Thanks
    Kevin

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCDecember 24, 2012 at 6:08 AM

      Merry Christmas Kevin!

      The model is quite bullish short term. 1490 SPX may be possible. It should spike up soon.

      It is also important to emphasize that this is an expensive market. A spike up in SPX would finish the rally from November. Down afterwards.

      Delete
  3. StockboomDecember 24, 2012 at 10:01 AM

    When market closes today

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  4. MishkaDecember 24, 2012 at 10:45 AM

    Hi SC,

    Whats your call for Wednesday 26th, do you think 1422 will hold or break ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCDecember 24, 2012 at 11:50 AM

      SPX 1422 may hold, but also possible that it dips and tests 1415 to 1420 next support.

      Delete
  5. Alex TDecember 24, 2012 at 11:42 AM

    Merry Christmas

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCDecember 24, 2012 at 11:51 AM

      Thank you Alex, Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!

      Delete
  6. SCDecember 26, 2012 at 9:38 AM

    Testing support today.

    SCDecember 24, 2012 11:50 AM
    "SPX 1422 may hold, but also possible that it dips and tests 1415 to 1420 next support."

    ReplyDelete
  7. MuzzDecember 27, 2012 at 7:30 AM

    Hi SC do you feel this drop in the markets today is a buy dip around the 1410 area before we push higher into late Dec early Jan?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  8. SCDecember 27, 2012 at 7:40 AM

    I believe so Muzz. I've been waiting, and went moderately long at 1410 SPX.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCDecember 27, 2012 at 7:48 AM

      Short term looks quite bullish according to my model. In the best case 1480 to 1490 may be possible short term!

      Delete
  9. MuzzDecember 27, 2012 at 8:02 AM

    Thanks SC

    ReplyDelete
  10. SCDecember 27, 2012 at 8:27 AM

    You are welcome Muzz!

    Due to my bigger picture views I am picky in this market with long trades. However, I am confident on this short term setup for the bullish case.

    ReplyDelete
  11. SCDecember 27, 2012 at 8:33 AM

    I think it'll firm up for a few days then spike up strongly.

    ReplyDelete
  12. SCDecember 27, 2012 at 8:46 AM

    In addition to the cycles, there is strength in Crude, and that is a "tell" for the short term bullish case imo.

    ReplyDelete
  13. StockboomDecember 27, 2012 at 8:59 AM

    Anyone here have TD waterhouse account? I used to get flat rate of 9.99 till December 15th and suddenly they changed to regular rate of $ 29.99; I was under impression that since I have TD mortgage I am getting 9.99; or that's what I been told...but today when I called them they said it is not true!

    Can anyone confirm if you have mortgage you get 9.99 flat rate?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  14. UnknownDecember 27, 2012 at 10:40 AM

    Now that UVXY above upper fork line and SPX below 1415 support you still looking for 1480 in near term ? I can see oversold bounce soon to 1422 , but no where near 1480 .Then sharply lower in January.

    ReplyDelete
  15. SCDecember 27, 2012 at 10:48 AM

    As long as SPX holds near the current support levels around 1400, it can bounce well. 1460's and possibly higher.

    If SPX comes down some more then the bounce would not take it as high 1430 to 1440.

    ReplyDelete
  16. joedDecember 27, 2012 at 12:05 PM

    EMINI CYCLE UPDATE

    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

    ReplyDelete
  17. SCDecember 27, 2012 at 12:24 PM

    Bouncing nicely!

    ReplyDelete
  18. mickDecember 27, 2012 at 2:39 PM

    you said 1422 support, 1415-20 support then 1410 support, then 1400 support.. you kept lowering your support until it was met nice job.

    ReplyDelete
  19. SCDecember 27, 2012 at 3:02 PM

    I've been waiting for SPX to settle, and went long today at 1410 for a short term trade only.

    Already profitable, and I think that a short term positive cycle has just started. This one should be powerful as shown on the Deja Vu cycle with the large finishing candle of the sharp rally phase.

    SPX can see 1467 or better in a week or so.

    ReplyDelete
  20. UnknownDecember 27, 2012 at 4:14 PM

    Joed.. We have SCs input..

    What is your time cycle and price target for the high of this swing high coming up?

    ReplyDelete

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