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Thursday, October 4, 2012

$SPX - Spike Update

SPX reached the target area today, and also touched the yellow fork line.  It will be interesting to see how it interacts with the fork line here.

Although this rally does not seem to be finished yet, there are negative spots in the cycle analysis for Friday/Monday.      

30min Chart

54 comments:

  1. I will probably sell my XIV sometime today. Market popped this morning, but near resistance again.

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  2. Replies
    1. Near $26 is a spot that I am interested for UVXY. I think it can pop from around $26 to $29, then ultimately may bottom near $24.

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  3. SC I is quite possible that we see a top today, what are your thoughts?

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    1. I think SPX can dip Monday a decent amount, but may put in a higher high next week.

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  4. I love how your bottom levels keep getting lower and lower....$29, $26, now $24

    is it going to be $20 next week ?

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    1. I know, nuts. I bought HVU at $8.14, right now I hope we are at a top and it sells off next week.

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    2. I'm expecting both of our posts to be deleted, because SC only leaves posts on that don't questions his credibility.

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    3. Thats not true. If one just comes here to attack him, and constantly does so, thats one thing. SC has left plenty of criticism on his blog including mine, and has never deleted it.

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    4. i concur with SS76's comment. SC accepts both positive and negative comments as long as they are professional and not personal.

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    5. i also concur that the bottoms keep getting lower and lower...:)

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  5. I think uvxy can get back to 28-29 and then head down to 7 or 8 before it has a slow gradual rise all the way back to 15.. so get long uvxy its the play

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  6. Sc, I think you're over regulating your own rules and style...Trying to pick THE bottom. Under 28 is all a BUY...

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  7. Hi SC ,

    What do you forsee from here ? 1500 for spx or downwards ?
    great work this week btw.

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    Replies
    1. There is room for a dip, but I think there is one more push coming for SPX. I'm going to look at the levels some more.

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  8. SC, in view of recent events in the markets: QE3 and essentially QE4 announcements. What is your take on precious metals and oil?

    Not too long ago you have mentioned that you think silver has topped out in 2011 and is in bear market. Have your views changed? Do you see gold moving above 2100-2300 area in 2013? Silver above old top at 50$/oz in 2013?

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    1. In August I said that I felt QE was likely at the Sept meeting, but also that it was already factored in. Mostly, that seems to be the case.

      Yes, the Silver bear started in 2011 in my view. It may reach $40.50 or so, but not near the $49 high for 2011 imo.

      Gold is still a bull in my view, but it is mature. Gold is not far from the high and may reach $2,050. Generally the metals are crowded though.

      Oil is overpriced, and in Sept did not exceed the Feb 2012 high. This is a bearish leading indicator for the markets in my view.

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    2. You are suggesting impossible scenario. Gold rallies another 250$ and gold silver ratio remains unchanged at ~50.

      Thank you.

      I think you will be proven wrong about metals big time next year.

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  9. 10/11/12 could be a disturbing market day
    Jaywiz

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  10. SILVER........

    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

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  11. Jyawiz, you've been predicting doom since August and the market has continued to rally !

    If you're not sure, keep quiet and dont mislead people !!!

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  12. a disturbing day is NOT DOOM
    and every projection has lead to some kind of correction off a high

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  13. ALSO
    OCT 10th SHOULD BE A STRONG MARKET DAY
    Jay

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  14. Jay...

    Get real............as stated you have been calling for a crash for months and now it's a correction! hahahahh Like you said they won't sign up if you don't keep calling for it! And then your always correct..........GO FIGURE!

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  15. I should know better than to write anything at all here.
    I participate very little so as to NOT interfere with SC's timing model
    ***
    NO matter what I write, some one here will find a way to spin it in reverse.

    Looks like there is a bunch of unruly people here who just like to criticize.

    I notice they have been giving giving SC the what for, also.

    JUST FOLLOW the blog for yourself- the proof is out there every day for confirmation.
    best wishes
    Jay

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    Replies
    1. Jay...

      Poor Jay the victim.........what about all the ppl that have to learn the hard way following your group until they lose so much they have to give it up! YOU HAVE BEEN CALLING FOR THE TOP FOR months.......give us a break with your smoking mirrors!!!!!!!!!!! AND now you have to optimize your cycles and can not post it live! hahahah Get real!

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    2. thanks for kicking the bears in the nuts, Jay. Now that you're calling for a meltdown, bears are collectively screwed.

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  16. Jay, if you're right with your predictions (which you are so NOT), then why don't you allow comments on your blog ? Sure you would want all those thank yous and welldone comments !

    But ofcourse you dont get those cos you've been calling for top forever :-)

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    Replies
    1. Jay disallowed comments right after missing the October 4 turn of LAST YEAR. Even if you only use 2 moving averages, you cannot possibly miss that turn last year. And Jay uses SCIENTIFIC resources (yes, even I Ching readings are considered scientific!).

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    2. Jay likes da CHING alright......all the CHING he gets from the newbies and the old! Taking charts from other websites and calling it research.......before he was called on it he called it his! Lots of class............now he can not even post his crap cycle live and every month he as a new discovery.....hahahahah......he said the 144 cycle was his! lol

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  17. CHARLIE
    YOU NEED TO GET NEW GLASSES
    I DID NOT WRITE THAT I DISCOVERED THE 144 cycle

    THATS WHAT I MEAN ABOUT UNRULY PEOPLE MISREADING what I WROTE & REPORTING my words INCORRECTLY

    thanks for visiting my blog

    I have discovered a NEW method for using 110-144 cycles that no one has used before.
    I tracked it back to Oct10th-2007

    IT GAVE ME THE OCT5th date
    NEXT important date is OCt29th

    Jay

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    Replies
    1. Jay.......

      GET REAL AND STOP WITH YOUR SMOKIN MIRRORS.....get some class!

      "ANOTHER AMAZING CYCLE HAS BEEN DISCOVERED-CAL IT THE JAYWIZZZZZZZZ 110/144" AFTER this you had to put a statement you did not discover as your early posts proclaimed! YOU WENT TO A GANN SITE AND TOOK THEIR WORK JUST LIKE ALL THE REST OF THE CHARTS YOU POST! JUST LIKE YOUR CYCLE THAT SOESN"T WORK...........lol GET REAL!

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  18. Have it your way- Charlie
    I don't USE GANN - THE CHARTS I GET ARE FROM STOCK CHARTS.COM PUBLIC PAGES
    I DONT NEED TO STEAL PUBLIC WORK


    THIS WEEK WILL BE MINE
    Have a good day , sir.
    PS-
    MY EARLIER POSTS DID NOT CLAIM THAT I DISCOVERED a 144 cycle- EVERYONE knows the 144 cycle

    THE DISCLAIMER was to SATISFY ANYONE LIKE YOU WHO CANT READ

    and thanks
    for the VISIT
    with friends like you, I dont need enemies





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    1. READ Your own words,,,,,,........"ANOTHER AMAZING CYCLE HAS BEEN DISCOVERED -CALL IT THE JAYWIZZZZZZZZ 110/144"

      DANCE JAY DANCE..................HAVE YOU NOTICED YOU GET THE SAME CALL OUT EVERYTIME YOU COME AND BLOW MORE SMOKE??? WE WILL ALL JUMP OVER AND JOIN YOUR PAY FOR VIEW..............CAN'T WAIT!

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    2. HOW BOUT THIS ONE JAY!!!!

      "Jaywiz HAS DISCOVERED A NEW CYCLE that hereto fore has never been identified" THE 144........MORE BOUT THAT LATER...........HAHAHAHAHA...WHAT WHEN YOU JOIN?????? GET A DICTIONARY JAY ...LOOK UP THE WORD "DISCOVER"!!!!! HAHAHAHAH

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    3. JAY

      We all know your game........at least SC does his own work ...right or wrong! You have never......and your cycle work has never worked! PERIOD!! GO AWAY!

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    4. Well I don't know who Jay is but this blog belongs to SC!!

      Secondly by the replies from the other guys in the room he sounds like another Prechter...and we all know how useless he is!

      Another reason to buy the mkt anyway...

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  19. good morning SC,
    are you still waiting for a lower UVXY price to go back in? or are you already 100%

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    Replies
    1. Good morning,

      I am still waiting. I am expecting a lower entry in a couple of days for UVXY. Then it will be set up nicely imo.

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  20. Replies
    1. Fri, and today were negative in my cycle analysis, but tomorrow, and Wed look quite positive.

      So I think this dip should end today, and rally for a few days. Best to be careful imo, because what seems most likely is a pop up and then fall hard.

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  21. SPX has started the gradual decline phase lower for a 2 to 3 week period imo. Updates coming.

    SPX should work it's way down to test the white trendline. It should be a grind lower with small bounces along the way.

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  22. Replies
    1. Just with the same normal position size. UVXY likely heading for $31's then dip back to $27's or so over the next week.

      So I'll be planning to increase the size of the position over the next week on dips.

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  23. So are the positive cycles for today and tomorrow now negated or reversed? and thus the SPX pop is delayed for a few days before a bugger drop? tks in advance.

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    1. It seems the negative cycle from yesterday followed through this morning. Support is broken now. So SPX is trending lower now. It probably will bounce later today, but bounces are likely to be small for weeks. In 2 or 3 weeks there is a spot when SPX can see a better bounce but not until then.

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  24. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  25. It seems the negative cycle from yesterday followed through this morning ... thats a new way to say you were wrong again?

    there is no edge, anybody who thinks they can predict the future, is insane. No cycle can predict each day what the market is going to do.. Monday -Tues positive, wednesday negative, thursday morning postive turning negative, friday negative to positive ... really?

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    Replies
    1. i believe the cycle is inconsistent for day trading success and should not be used in that way. I would suggest it only be used as 1 of your datapoints only for int. timeline trading. Particularly since we don't understand all the complexities of cycles and SC is trying to simplify it for us with his updates.
      just my 2 cents based on observation.

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  26. Of course it is difficult to be perfect, and capture every movement. Yet a short from Friday morning was a decent trade even if covered yesterday.

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