Finding the edge in analyzing unique market Cycles.
Yesterday I stated that today would be an important confirmation of the next short term direction. I showed the chart of what would happen if UVXY failed at the midfork. However, it did see the follow through overnight, and was strong enough to push above the midfork. So I will trade this updated chart. I am in UVXY at $28.25 from yesterday's entry, and plan to sell this morning.
Lol, this market is swinging beautifully!!
One reason I bought UVXY yesterday was that the short term cycle for SPX was still negative this morning. BUT it turns positive today for several days.
It was not clear yesterday if UVXY would confirm and move above the midfork, but it did.
If my chart, as shown, yesterday played out then I would have planned to sell today for a small profit.Instead the breakout delivered a nice win. So now my plan is to book the gain this morning, and will plan to re-enter UVXY near a backtest of the midfork.
Sold UVXY at $32.00
SPX cycle should now turn positive for a few days.
SPX nothing positive until closes and stayrs above 1416 cash
Hi SCUVXY may not follow the SPX cycle to the point. Like when SPX goes positive, UVXY may just do nothing or even go green. Curious to know what your take on that.Thanks!
There is some inverse correlation between the two, but yes, agree, not directly.I chart UVXY directly for price levels/timing, but the SPX cycle does play a part in determining the general outlook.
Bought XIV at $16.15 for short term trade. 1 or 2 days.
Have to be careful, and think twice with long trades going forward. There are only certain spots that I will consider long market exposure.This spot is ok, but nothing major for a bounce here either. XIV should be ok for small pop.
UVXY hit the top fork resistance.
SC, i thought you sold your UVXY position yesterday for 30
Yes sold UVXY yesterday at $30.31, then bought at the end of the day at $28.25. Then sold this morning at $32.00 (a little early).
UVXY a little stronger this morning than what I showed on the chart above. That means I'll increase my target in a week or so to $36 to $38. It should cool off now first for days imo.
1390 and 1400 are support on sp500...if those hold watch for new Lows on UVXY...I believe SP will rally violently in the next 1-2 weeks
There is an SPX cycle that is coming in Nov that will crush the bears imo. I'll be discussing this later.
Hello JoeRemember you posted a chart not long ago with DOW heading to 12000area in early Nov. Is that still valid? or has target and time been changed/moved?Thanks!
IvestbbI have stated many times my arrows are time not targets..........time goes into targets! Yes time is end of Oct 30 to early Nov window .....Best, joed
Hi JoedThanks for the response.Looking forward to the waterfall affect soon.Thanks!
InvestI never referred to a waterfall here....just for clarity! You must be quoting someone else! It can just eat time up.......I trade what is in front of me on the 240 min! If you were holdin from the top there was 60 points.....but there are over 3 times that amount in swings! Speaks for itself! Best, joed
Hi SC ,What do u mean by that the spx cycle will crush the bears ? That statement would mean that it's a positive cycle ?? However your earlier post said that we should stay from long positions . Could you please clarify ?Thanks,Alex
Not for the next few days, but in a few days generally bearish positions are the place to focus. There is a spot though in Nov that is very positive for the markets. So I will have no problem with long positions at that time. I want to wait for the negative cycles to finish first then will outline my Nov plan in depth.
Nov looks like it is going to be a ton of fun to trade :)
Thank you SC for the responses and showing us your charts.Thanks!
You are welcome!
Hy Sc in a new bear market 2013, Uvxy and Tvix can rally x8 or x10 or x12 from now? thanks
I have big picture targets coming. Think big!
Just to keep the analysis in tune with the appropriate market timing, I've been waiting for the right timing to post the big picture charts.
Yes . I think big .ever. Welcome a new cyclical bear market 2013.
It's going to be an interesting year I think...
See my important message posted today (click on the blog under my profile)
good morning SCcontgrats on your recent trades.also, nice to see that you are in step with ZZ's charts
Good morning Scott,Thank you, getting into a rhythm, and think I have a good plan going forward for Nov, and Dec. One step at a time.
SPX can bounce as high as 1450 next, then 1380 will be my targeted low mid Nov. That ends the gradual declining phase.
**new chart is up**