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Saturday, December 3, 2011

$SPX and Silver - Updated

SPX traded into the oval target range last week, and a decline appears imminent.  The green arrow marks a possible downside target on a short term basis. 

After this decline a solid bounce looks probable into the middle of next week.

However, my outlook as previously outlined is exceptionally bearish with a 20% decline forecast into January from the current level. 

10min Chart















Silver has taken longer to set up properly, and that means the timing is pushed out.  A third bottom would have me taking a bullish stance on Silver as per the Symmetry.

Silver futures could bottom around $29.50, and then a steady grind higher in December is anticipated up to $37 in January.

30min Chart
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34 comments:

  1. ILUVPMSDecember 3, 2011 at 11:02 AM

    hey There,


    After 37, are you still expecting a drop to 18, followed by 6.50 for 2012... cheers and great work.

    ReplyDelete
  2. stevesteve121December 3, 2011 at 1:39 PM

    so you expect SPX to reach 1210 monday/tuesday and bounce into mid week?

    "After this decline a solid bounce looks probable into the middle of next week."

    ReplyDelete
  3. SCDecember 3, 2011 at 2:06 PM

    Yes, very bearish for Silver after $37.

    Those 2 lines intersect around 1216. The middle part of the week does look quite positive.

    ReplyDelete
  4. beetlejuiceDecember 3, 2011 at 7:18 PM

    SC 6.50 silver would translate into DX 105-110 if I am correct and that would hammer the price of all commodities, gold included.

    I am short-med term dollar bull but boy that is global depression type stuff

    ReplyDelete
  5. stevesteve121December 4, 2011 at 1:14 PM

    also,

    what are some of the major cycle turn dates in your books?

    thanks in advance

    ReplyDelete
  6. AnonymousDecember 4, 2011 at 3:34 PM

    Hi everyone :)
    According to my model on silver, here are my forecasts for this week :
    Monday : bullish
    Tuesday : really bearish
    Wednesday : bullish
    Thursday : flat
    Friday : bullish

    SC, according to your patterns, is it possible to get a week like this ?

    Have a good week all

    ReplyDelete
  7. AnonymousDecember 4, 2011 at 6:50 PM

    SC, there is some interesting symmetry going on on the DJI chart. We are playing back the fall summer pattern. Right now we are at the June 21st time point, which suggests we fall back down to 11250/1160 in the next 4-5 days, then reverse and move up in a choppy way for 45 days. Do you see what i see?

    http://img845.imageshack.us/img845/5204/streamingserver3256401.gif

    ReplyDelete
  8. SS76December 4, 2011 at 7:24 PM

    Monday not looking bearish at all....Strong positive signals tonight so far.

    ReplyDelete
  9. ZigZagDecember 4, 2011 at 7:45 PM

    INDU seasonality: The best return over the maximum number of positive periods reveals a buy date of November 12 and a sell date of January 2, producing a total return over the same 10-year range of 41.88% with positive results in 10 of those periods.

    My cycles say there's an 80% chance that we will make 11. I wish I had those odds when I go to Vegas. :-)

    ReplyDelete
  10. SCDecember 4, 2011 at 9:14 PM

    I'll have some major cycle turn dates coming up in analysis soon.

    Let's see how Silver trades early this week - it is in the middle of the range currently.

    bluemoon,

    Thanks for the symmetry, I see what you are talking about. Another interpretation there is that the big bounce into early May already occurred (since the Dow has tested near the highs), just faster this time. That often is the case.

    There is something in that symmetry that I spotted that looks interesting for this week. Will explain tomorrow. Thanks again.

    ReplyDelete
  11. AnonymousDecember 5, 2011 at 12:39 AM

    EMINI DOW CYCLE

    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/839/eminicycles122.gif/

    SHORTED FRI HIGHS!

    joed

    ReplyDelete
  12. AnonymousDecember 5, 2011 at 5:14 AM

    SC, if thats the case then choppy grind up into Jan '12 from here, a bit higher than Nov highs?

    There is only a short window for a sell off if we are indeed at the point i mentioned.

    ReplyDelete
  13. SantaDecember 5, 2011 at 6:45 AM

    Hi SC

    Getting some wild pop in SPX this morning...would this be a trap for longs and we go lower today? still waiting for your cycle low to confirm...running out of time before dec 6 and 7 soon.


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  14. MikeDecember 5, 2011 at 6:49 AM

    The eur/usd is soaring bringing everything else up with it. How does cycle work take into account all the news coming out of Europe? Just have to keep adjusting? Or lengthen a cycle?

    ReplyDelete
  15. SCDecember 5, 2011 at 7:00 AM

    Couple things I am noticing today are that the VIX is holding up, and NDX isn't rallying well.

    ReplyDelete
  16. ZigZagDecember 5, 2011 at 7:02 AM

    I'm locking in a bit of profit from my 11/25 cycle low today. I will be buying the next dip..

    ReplyDelete
  17. AnonymousDecember 5, 2011 at 9:12 AM

    EMINI INTRA DAY

    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

    Good trading1 joed

    ReplyDelete
  18. SantaDecember 5, 2011 at 10:32 AM

    Hi SC

    Getting BBQed in the short side here still...we have less than a couple hours before dec6 and 7 coming to the picture. Do you think the dip have disappear, and we just going straight higher tomorrow and the 7th?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  19. SCDecember 5, 2011 at 10:46 AM

    I think the high came in 1 day early this time. Party is over, down we go with a slippery slope to SPX 1020.

    It's been trickier than usual to figure out what happens on a given day, but I am satisfied that my bigger picture charts are correct.

    ReplyDelete
  20. AnonymousDecember 5, 2011 at 10:58 AM

    EMINI UPDATE......

    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

    BANG!

    BEST! joed

    ReplyDelete
  21. SCDecember 5, 2011 at 11:08 AM

    Just when things looked rosy, another skeleton pops out of the closet!

    ReplyDelete
  22. SCDecember 5, 2011 at 11:18 AM

    My call is top is in. Nothing to do but wait for 1020 - 230 points downside from current level. Steady slide to 1020, only small bounces. It'll take time to get there - have to sit back and be patient.

    ReplyDelete
  23. SCDecember 5, 2011 at 12:59 PM

    Trading under the yellow midfork, and just backtested it at 1256.

    ReplyDelete
  24. BlakeDecember 5, 2011 at 2:00 PM

    Do you now think that silver has topped as well SC? Or still a chance to grind higher later in the month? Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  25. ckoreyDecember 5, 2011 at 2:03 PM

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-05/demark-s-p-500-at-1-330-by-christmas.html

    ReplyDelete
  26. SCDecember 5, 2011 at 2:16 PM

    No, Silver is going to test that $37 area. I've just been favoring a decline and bottom around $30 first.

    ReplyDelete
  27. SantaDecember 5, 2011 at 2:22 PM

    Hi SC

    wondering your take on ckorey's article about that 1300+ prediction, think it may be valid at all?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  28. SCDecember 5, 2011 at 2:45 PM

    Although I am not an expert on Demark's methods, I like how he uses a different approach. He has made some good calls recently as well. So I respect that.

    Still, I don't see this one working out for him.

    Let me show why with some charts.

    ReplyDelete
  29. beetlejuiceDecember 5, 2011 at 5:35 PM

    Beats me why in hell investors are attempting to squeeze every last drop out of a market when the fundamentals of the global economy are effectively stuffed?

    USD is still sending a very clear signal and I continue to err on the side of caution.

    ReplyDelete
  30. SS76December 5, 2011 at 6:29 PM

    Interesting, I saw the same article and I think the one thing we can all agree on, is this market is not rational and therefore a move to 1330 seems quite possible, especially in the short term with potentially a solid plan out of Europe. Lets see what the rest of the week brings. If it does get to 1330, it could be the greatest opportunity yet, and I will put my life savings in HVU.

    SC, Demarks views would work well with your model because it would make the fall into early January all the more probable.

    ReplyDelete
  31. ZigZagDecember 5, 2011 at 8:18 PM

    The VIX will be a teenager long before my March cycle hits.

    ReplyDelete
  32. TomDecember 5, 2011 at 8:30 PM

    Everyone at the moment is uber bullish apart from SC and Corey Geer who also sees a massive decline into the new year.

    ReplyDelete
  33. ThaiHawaiiDecember 5, 2011 at 9:15 PM

    Tom ....... Don't forget Joed ..............

    ReplyDelete
  34. The HookDecember 6, 2011 at 9:17 AM

    Silver running hard.

    ReplyDelete

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