The "2008 pattern" as well as symmetry indicate a steady grind down. The cycle analysis was positive mid this week, and it weakens dramatically from this time. This is very solid support that the top call from a few days ago holds true.
Traders have been trained now to trade the "November whipsaws". So the market throws it's curve ball. No whipsaws - steady trend down. There are no bounces of any significance on the way down.
The mistake many will make is to try and pick a bottom all the way down. Don't fall into this trap. Sit, relax, and wait for the bottom. Target 1044 SPX.
As shown NDX has already been leading down since Monday.
30min Chart
How is arate cut by the ECB bullish the Euro and bearish the dollar?
ReplyDeleteThis market makes its mind up according to the direction the wind is blowing in at the time.
New highs premarket
ReplyDeleteand quite the sell off afterwards.
ReplyDeleteSC maybe is this the move in silver to your down target before going to $37ish or just more whipsaw ?thanks
ReplyDeleteYes, i think so. Silver finally looking weak.
ReplyDeleteMy system is still short silver, but I just opened a small long position for a swing trade. I think it will be really difficult to push silver or gold much lower here.
ReplyDeleteGold and silver miners still tell me that gold and silver are in an uptrend.
ReplyDeleteNice call SC. I expect a smaller correction, but 2-3 days of downtrend too.
ReplyDeleteThanks G! Looking good.
ReplyDeleteWhy is this not the right shoulder of an inverse H&S setup?
ReplyDeleteGood question.
ReplyDeleteRegarding patterns - there are always numerous bullish and bearish patterns in the market at a given time. All of them look good on the surface, but the trick is to figure out which one to the real deal.
For example, there have been inverse head and shoulders this year from March to May, May to July, and another August to December. So there have been one failed pattern after another.
I use the symmetry, cycles to figure out which pattern is the real one. Then I look to see the mkt behaviour confirming the theory. The weak financials and Nasdaq are solidly telling us to believe in a downtrend.
SC, good call.
ReplyDeleteWhat do you see between 14 Dec and 22 Dec ?
You mentioned that this is the left shoulder. I am a bit lost on this count, can you clarify this is a left shoulder of what pattern ? a SHS or inverses SHS ?
SC, silver is sitting on the important support like it did third week of september. I also see HnS targeting mid ~20's on the futures... is this too much per your cycle? Date for the final low ive been getting around fourth week of december.
ReplyDeletehttp://img560.imageshack.us/img560/2990/silverearlydecember.png
Bluemoon - I agree regarding your timing on SI:
ReplyDeletehttp://screencast.com/t/Ydz77YSKHV
http://screencast.com/t/HCxZpQmH
From now until Dec 16th is very negative. On Monday, Dec 19th things look more neutral with some positives for about a week.
ReplyDeleteI take this to mean that a flatted period could occur in that week from the 19th. My symmetrical pattern shows a flat spot about half way down. Maybe around 1140. This would be a false bottom with another leg down to follow to 1044 area.
I see an inverse head and shoulders in my symmetry with the left shoulder at 1044, head at 1025. I haven't shown this chart yet, but I plan to do so with explanation why, and what it means going forward.
ReplyDeleteSilver has potential for downside to $29.50 at the most. In the $29.50 to $30.25 zone looks possible for a bottom. So from here the downside is quite minimal and upside better.
Hi SC I am a little confused on this up move today in the S&P, I would have thought it was going to continue down after yesterday's price action. What are your thoughts of what is happening here and where we are heading?
ReplyDeleteThanks
Muzz: prob a retracement
ReplyDeleteYes agree, just a retracement on the way down. Often bear market rallies are fairly sharp, but with no substance behind them. This is a natural spot to consolidate before the bottom falls out again.
ReplyDeleteSC, so if SPY has topped out then metals did put in the bottom already according to your model?
ReplyDeleteThanks SC & educated, I am short so I am hoping this is only a retracement but it does seem to be quite strong here at the moment which to me seems ridiculous as to why.
ReplyDeleteNot necessarily do the metals have to line up exactly with SPY.
ReplyDeleteunless we get a pretty good sell off into the close.. its not looking good for the bear case at all...
ReplyDeletehttp://radio.goldseek.com/nuggets/crawford11.28.11.mp3
ReplyDeleteArch Crawford staying short over this weekend.
Interesting. My cycle analysis is quite negative all of next week. Monday shows up as the worst day this month. However, lately I've found it tougher than usual to forecase what happens on a certain day. So I won't put too much weight on that. Mainly it's the bigger picture I'm targeting.
ReplyDeleteOne of my silver swing trading indicators is giving a sell signal here. Multiday signal.
ReplyDeleteGet stopped out yet SC?
ReplyDeleteI think the probability is high for a down day Monday. Based on the cycle analysis, it looks quite negative. So that is my plan - short for the big play.
ReplyDeleteJust went long the VIX for Monday. No guarantee but good odds, could be fireworks.
ReplyDeleteHi SC
ReplyDeleteVIX is at 26.8 ish today, wondering what you expect VIX to go up to on Monday assuming we go?
Thanks!
I'd have to look at it some more, but I see the 50 day MA comes in at 32.
ReplyDeleteWell, the day ended very strongly and I am doubting Monday will be bad, I think this carries over into a Santa Clause rally next week, but I don't have cycles to back up my thinking.
ReplyDeleteSC, Silver doesn't appear to be going to $29 and in fact has rebounded strongly from $31.50 twice now.
How confident are you that the VIX is heading higher on Monday?
ECRI Still Sticking with Recession Call Despite Wall Street Mocking It
ReplyDeletehttp://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2011/12/video-ecri-still-sticking-with.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+FundMyMutualFund+%28Fund+my+Mutual+Fund%29
Just one question, what u think of the European Markets; since the lows of Sept-Oct lows; they have risen sharply & they have outperform global markets. Since Europe is middle of all bad news & their indices outperforming other global indices, is this surprising !!!!!!
ReplyDeleteIt's not surprising to me. I said this right at the bottom on the DAX:
ReplyDeleteSC said...
To be clear the Euro situation (and Global situation) isn't going to be resolved any time soon. It will be an ongoing problem for years to come.
However, the PM's are sending the signal that the current phase of Euro crisis is nearly over - early Oct. The Euro situation is a loss of confidence, and that confidence will ebb and flow - as always. That is the nature of cycles.
September 24, 2011 7:26 PM
You raise an important point about European markets. The DAX actually has been a good leading indicator. Let me explain with some charts.
ReplyDeleteHello SC,
ReplyDeleteAre you still sticking with your target of 1044 by Jan?
Also do you still think the top is in?
Yes Sami, 1044 is the target for January. I do think that the top is in, and quite sure heading to that target.
ReplyDeleteThanks SC...for your thoughts & charts on DAX...by the way, i am from India & i really like your analysis & conviction !!!!
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