Saturday, December 31, 2011

Silver/Gold - Parabolic Move Coming!

In the following analysis late October, I had suggested that Silver was topping and would retest the September low.

It did test the September low last week, and also found support at the major trendline in white.  The bottom is likely in place, and while Silver may start with a gradual rise, it is anticipated to finish in parabolic fashion.  

Daily Chart

Gold also hit a major trendline last week going back to 2009.  Interestingly, the timing at the bottom lines up exactly with the triangle apex. 

A steady rise for Gold makes Gold a better performer early on than Silver, but Silver finishes much stronger with a parabolic move. 

The upside for Gold and Silver to the target prices is equal on a percentage basis. 

Daily Chart

Thursday, December 29, 2011

$SPX - Bearish Indications for Tomorrow

SPX hit resistance today at the red fork.  The cycle analysis is also extremely negative for tomorrow. 

NDX continues to weaken, and the gap is widening.  I showed many charts in the first half of 2011 with comparisons using the financials and SPX.  The Financials were warning well in advance of the August collapse, and in this case it is NDX.     

60min Chart

2hour Chart

The DAX is leading down in December.  I have shown the DAX comparison before, and it has given great signals in advance of downturns in SPX. 

Daily Chart

Tuesday, December 27, 2011

$INDU - Major Decline Next

The white trendline is anticipated to be tested early in 2012.  This represents a 20% decline from the current level.  The white line is equivalent to the trendline shown in my recent SPX analysis. 

There is tremendous resistance overhead with a major decline anticipated to commence shortly.

2day Chart

Timing should be close to the apex marked with the green arrow.  Early 2012...

7day Chart

Monthly Chart

Saturday, December 24, 2011

$SPX - Long Term Resistance

The market has been darting up and down with numerous rapid whipsaws and large gaps.  The reason for this type of trading is that SPX is "boxed in" at long term resistance.
The chatter amongst traders recently has become increasingly focused on minute details.  Sometimes it is helpful to zoom out and see the "lay of the land".  The best charts are often simple ones.

A test of the white trendline is the target that has been proposed for early 2012. 

The fact that SPX is currently trading at such an important technical level sets up 2012 to be an interesting year to say the least! 

7day Chart

Thursday, December 22, 2011

SPY - Backtest

This may be a backtest of the white trendline going back to the August lows.  The reactions to this white line have been quite violent in the past.  Originally it was the flag boundary in the summer.

Let's see if the market finds this line important.

2hour Chart

Tuesday, December 20, 2011

$SPX - CRASH December 27th to January 6th

All of the methods that I use including symmetry, geometry, cycles, and cycle analysis are extremely bearish in late December.  Not only that, but the market is confirming with leading indexes (such as NDX and DAX) leading down for months already.  
The crash is anticipated to start from Dec 27th or 28th, and could reach the 1044 SPX target on January 6th.  Steep declines may come on Dec 28th through Dec 30th according to the cycle analysis system. 

This summer, I used the same cycle analysis system to pinpoint a selloff into August 10th +/- 1 day, and mentioned this date many times in my July analysis.  It is the same system that I am using this time as well.

This should be taken as a firm warning!   

60min Chart

Gold/Silver - Bottoming - Massive Upside into early 2012

There appears to be upside by Dec 27th for both Silver (red line target) and Gold.  However, the cycle analysis indicates extreme weakness in the S&P starting from Dec 28th to the 30th, and continuing into January 6th.  This market-wide weakness likely will also initially manifest in late December in the Gold and Silver markets causing some weakness amid forced liquidations and panic. 

So while the recent bottoms for Gold and Silver are likely to be retested, and probably undercut slightly in late December, the charts are super bullish into early 2012 for both metals.   

The move higher in January is slower for Silver initially than Gold, but while Gold rises steadily, Silver finishes with a parabolic rise to $37 for the Silver futures!

60min Chart

Gold target is $2,050.00

60min Chart

Monday, December 19, 2011

SPY - Rate of Descent - According to Plan

SPY has continued down in a steady decline.  The yellow line was drawn on Dec 5th.  Notice how SPY has declined at the same angle of descent as the line was drawn in advance.  I chose that angle, or rate of descent, because it is half the rate as the two-week decline this summer into the August 9th low.

I suspect that the market may see a bounce soon into Dec 21st.  From that date into Dec 23rd looks weak again.  Dec 27th looks more positive and then Dec 28th, 29th, and 30th all look very negative in the cycle analysis system.        

I suspect that the market flattens off somewhat and manages a few bounces around Christmas.  The expectation is for an acceleration down Dec 28th to Dec 30th to maintain the same rate of descent overall.

Daily Chart

NDX has continued to lead down, and is currently trading at approximately 1160 SPX on a performance comparison basis since October.

Once the yellow line breaks, look for an acceleration down.

60min Chart

Thursday, December 15, 2011

$SPX - NDX Still Leading Down

The slide has been steady down from the triple top as anticipated.  NDX continues to lead on the downside.  The low VIX is an indication of unusually high complacency, and this is a very bearish signal.

A crisis is about to erupt.  The charts for Gold and Silver are extremely bullish near term. 

Tomorrow looks much weaker than today in my cycle analysis.  The target remains 1,044 SPX.   

30min Chart

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Gold - Ready to Skyrocket!

The safe haven trade in Gold is ready to ignite with an explosive move higher.  The symmetry for Gold is outrageously bullish near term.  The geometry is favorable for a bottom with very solid support at this level.  Minor downside to the white line is possible.

The January target is $2,020. 

Daily Chart

The Silver chart is extremely bullish near term.  The white trendline held today.  A slight undershoot of the line still remains a possibility.  The next target is $37.

60min Chart

Silver - Bullish Triangle

Testing the lower boundary.  The anticipation is for a sharp rise into the target zone.

4hour Chart

Silver - Hit Target - 3rd Bottom

Silver hit the anticipated downside target this morning.  The symmetry suggests that the 3rd bottom is a significant bottom with a strong rise to follow.

A rise from point 3 to point 4 should be steady with few dips.  A top is anticipated at approximately $37 on the Silver futures (point 6).  Point 6 is anticipated to be a higher high than point 4.      

2hour Chart

Sunday, December 11, 2011

$SPX - DAX Leading Down

Much of the current economic news has centered around the situation in Europe.  The German DAX has been a good leading indicator for SPX.  The higher low for the DAX in July 2010 was a solid indicator of a bullish move to commence. 

The same was true in early October 2011.  The higher low on the DAX suggested a bounce.  Why just a short lived bounce?

Daily Chart

Unlike 2010, The performance of the DAX is still much weaker than SPX.  The large gap in DAX vs SPX is quite clear, and should be taken as a serious warning.       

Daily Chart

Wednesday, December 7, 2011

$SPX - Triple Top

The orange fork was hit perfectly today completing a nice, clean triple top.  Price closed under the yellow midfork, and I anticipate that the downtrend has now commenced.   

The "2008 pattern" as well as symmetry indicate a steady grind down.  The cycle analysis was positive mid this week, and it weakens dramatically from this time.  This is very solid support that the top call from a few days ago holds true. 

Traders have been trained now to trade the "November whipsaws".  So the market throws it's curve ball.  No whipsaws - steady trend down.  There are no bounces of any significance on the way down. 

The mistake many will make is to try and pick a bottom all the way down.  Don't fall into this trap.  Sit, relax, and wait for the bottom.  Target 1044 SPX.

As shown NDX has already been leading down since Monday.

30min Chart

Monday, December 5, 2011

SPY - Top is IN!

All of the cycles and methods that I use in my analysis are unanimously bearish with a major decline commencing today, and continuing through December.  The symmetry indicates that the decline will be steady, relentless with no significant bounces until 1044 SPX. 
A substantial bounce is expected from the 1044 SPX January 2012 target.  A final low is estimated at 1025 SPX early 2012.  The entire process is mapped out in the symmetry to be an inverse Head and Shoulders pattern encompassing several months early 2012.  The target at the green arrow is the Left Shoulder.

This is a market trending downwards.  There have been lower highs since late October, and in fact, lower highs since May.       

The coloured arrows correlate to my "2008" pattern.  Further charts will be coming shortly.

Daily Chart

Saturday, December 3, 2011

$SPX and Silver - Updated

SPX traded into the oval target range last week, and a decline appears imminent.  The green arrow marks a possible downside target on a short term basis. 

After this decline a solid bounce looks probable into the middle of next week.

However, my outlook as previously outlined is exceptionally bearish with a 20% decline forecast into January from the current level. 

10min Chart

Silver has taken longer to set up properly, and that means the timing is pushed out.  A third bottom would have me taking a bullish stance on Silver as per the Symmetry.

Silver futures could bottom around $29.50, and then a steady grind higher in December is anticipated up to $37 in January.

30min Chart