Wednesday, March 30, 2011

$SPX - Freefall Alert!

I anticipate that SPX has topped at 1332, point B, on this spike higher from the March 16th, 2010 low.   

Next, I will calculate the decline to point C:

I have a very specific cycle that strongly correlates with the current pattern of trading and high today.  The calculations based on that cycle indicates that C = 1.382A.

A = 1344.07 Feb, 2010 high - 1249.05 March, 2010 low = 95.02 SPX points
C = 95.02 points x 1.382 = 131.32 points

Therefore the bottom at point C is calculated to be:

1332 - 131.32 points = 1200.68 SPX             

Furthermore, the length of time from the current 1332 top to the bottom calculated target at 1200.68 SPX should be equal in time to the March 16th 1249 bottom to current top 1332 (equal time cycle).  This is approximately 11 trading days in total, and therefore my estimate of the bottoming date is:

Friday, April 15th, 2011 bottom at 1200.68 SPX

These are approximations, and I expect accuracy to within a few points, and within a few days.  Also, notice (on the chart) the moderate decline to start with initially (in each yellow box), and then the acceleration down with a freefall.  The moderate decline should take about a week with the freefall to start in roughly 1 week's time.

I will be expanding on details of multiple cycles in agreement in further posts.   

In addition, this ABC move is corrective, with an aggressive rally up to the final 1352 SPX target to follow.

2-Hour Chart

Sunday, March 27, 2011

$SPX Freefall and VIX Symmetry

The SPX 1317 target as shown on my previous medium term updated chart was hit on Friday.  Next, a severe decline to SPX 1222 is targeted.

Cycle analysis indicates that a selloff would initially start with a moderate decline.  Many will call for a bottom as the market consolidates prior to a severe decline.  Don't be fooled in the consolidation phase - a freefall is to follow!

2-Hour Chart

The following VIX chart shows the cycle with excellent symmetry.  Initially, I am looking for a triangle to form with a breakout and spike up.  Notice that a move up to 31 would be a slight lower high, near double top with the recent top.  This would be an approximately 82% rise in the VIX from the low on Friday, March 25th.

The lower high would hint at the coming strong proposed rally to SPX 1352.

30min Chart

Saturday, March 19, 2011

$SPX - Medium Term (Updated)

It has been a challenge to get the short term picture correct, and I always enjoy a good challenge. 

I think we will see a sharp spike up to the gap at B 1317 early this week.   In the following charts A=C.  Both are 95 points, and therefore my estimate of the near term bottom C is $SPX 1222.  

I have looked at this in great detail a number of different ways including numerous cycles (most of the analysis is not shown here), and all line up very well.  So I have a high degree of confidence in this pathway.  I am looking forward to seeing the before/after on this one.

Be prepared for a wild week! 

2-Hour Chart

The following chart shows the symmetrical patterns in place.  The bottom should resemble a triple bottom similar to the Nov 2010 bottom.

2-Hour Chart

Wednesday, March 16, 2011

$SPX - Medium Term

The 1352 calculated target still makes sense to me.  I think $SPX rallies up to 1300 in the short term.  I anticipate that we will see a bottom ~ 1232 in the next week or two. 

The market should consolidate at lower levels for a period of time as it sets up to rally sharply.  A surprisingly strong rally should follow to the calculated target at 1352. 

2-Hour Chart

Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Financials $Rifin - Medium Term

Despite the oversold technicals, markets broke down overnight with the Nikkei crashing.

This is the same chart that I have shown previously.  Financials bounced at the mid-line of the pitchforks.  I think $Rifin could come down and test the red line around 834 next.

$SPX may come down to test the 1227 area which was the April and Nov 2010 highs. 

2-Hour Chart

Saturday, March 12, 2011

$SPX - Blast Off - Top Target 1352

The market is like a dynamic puzzle with more pieces falling into place each day.  Finally, with some tweaking required, I am confident that all of the pieces are in place to calculate the top target.  In my opinion, Friday's 1291 $SPX low will hold!

Here is the math:

1219.80 April 26, 2010 high - 666.79 March 6, 2009 low = 553.01 $SPX points
553.01 points X .618 Fibonacci = 341.76 points
1010.91 July 1, 2010 low + 341.76 points = 1352.67 Target

The Fibonacci's also indicate the same target calculated another way:

1332.28 March 3, 2011 high - 1294.26 Feb 24, 2011 low = 38.02 $SPX points
38.02 points X 1.618 Fibonacci = 61.51 points
1291.99 March 11, 2010 low + 61.51 points = 1353.50 Target

Both calculations indicate a top target for $SPX ~ 1352. 

There is nicely balanced symmetry on both sides of the cycle line.

30min Chart

Financials are stronger with a higher low (near double bottom) contrasting $SPX with a lower low versus Feb 24th low.  The stronger Financials are also confirming a move higher in the short term.  The same is true of Small Caps $RUT with a higher low as well. 

The short term charts and cycles are very bullish indicating a spike move up (do not forget that the bigger picture is extremely bearish!). 

15min Chart

Wednesday, March 9, 2011

$SPX - Short Term Update

Another test of 1303 may be in order before higher prices.  Financials have been stronger over the last several days as I had previously suggested.  Ideally, $Rifin should make a higher low versus March 7, while $SPX could test the low 1303. 

Traders will be talking about triangles breaking down, yet the stronger Financials is confirmation of consolidation prior to a large move up (short term only). 

Once again, prices and dates should be considered a rough estimate.

10min Chart

Monday, March 7, 2011

$SPX - Roadmap Updated

The roadmap worked well and was due for an update.  I have shown a general idea of what my symmetrical pattern predicts next.  On this particular chart, these price levels and timing are rough, and are not meant to be exact by any means.  Mainly I am looking for a move that is symmetrical to either side of the cycle line, and fit well with my other trend lines.

The main important points are:

1. $SPX likely has already topped Feb. 18, 2011.
2. $SPX 1302.50 should hold as a bottom (though I expect it to be retested as shown)
3. I propose that A=C and that both equal 38 points.  The top of C should be 1302 + 38 points = 1340.
4. Financials $Rifin should be stronger than $SPX and a slight new high seems likely.
5. A waterfall decline comes soon after the 1340 top (according to the longer term patterns).

10min Chart

Thursday, March 3, 2011

$SPX - Possible Roadmap (Short Term)

The following path makes the most sense to me all things considered.  Partly I like the math:


A (1332-1294 = 38 points)
C (1302+38 points = 1340)

Now let's work through the math:

1332 (today's top)-1302 = 30 points
1340-30 points = 1310
1332-1315 = 17 points
1310+17 points = 1327

Symmetry is important to me, and this pathway has nice symmetry.  It also fits well with my pitchforks.  The top pink line at 1340 comes from one of my longer term pitchforks.  Please see my 6-day $SPX chart Feb. 22, 2011. 

15min Chart

Wednesday, March 2, 2011

$Rifin 5min and 60min Charts

Short term I am quite bullish on Financials as shown by the cycle in the first chart.  However, I expect this is just the initial setup for a waterfall decline as shown by the pattern in the 60min Chart. 

5min Chart

Very bearish.

60min Chart

Tuesday, March 1, 2011

This Dip is "Different"

There may not be much more downside for $SPX tomorrow morning.  A natural spot for a moderate bounce is 1317 prior to further declines.

However, according to my patterns this "dip is different", and there is evidence to suggest sharper declines to follow a possible moderate bounce.  A waterfall type of decline may occur given the technicals - caution is warranted.  

 30min Chart