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Wednesday, November 30, 2011

$SPX - Exceptionally Bearish Now

SPX has bounced sharply into the targeted zone outlined last week - ahead of schedule.  As shown, there are ample resistances at this level, and SPX is anticipated to top out as a result.  Price hit the white trendline, and a decline is expected tomorrow/Friday.  Perhaps a test of the turquoise line is in order, with a bounce into around Dec 6-7th appearing in my cycle analysis.  Because the price is already at the targeted zone, early next week may just put in a lower high.

After Dec 6-7th, my work for December is exceptionally bearish.  The next target is 1020 (point 7 in my symmetrical pattern.  That would be a 20% decline from current levels, and that is anticipated to be hit in January.

From my patterns, the decline should be steady, relentless, with few bounces until 1040.  I have additional charts coming to show further detail on this move.  

NDX is leading down, and that has been the case since mid-October.  This is a formerly leading index, and it is struggling to bounce.

60min Chart















Silver has seen a decent bounce this week.  However, according to the symmetry chart shown previously, a lower low is favored.  Once point 3 completes at estimated $30 on the Silver futures, then finally solid upside to $36.50 area on the futures is anticipated.

Minor upside from today's close is possible for Silver, but it still looks probable that we can finally see this lower low in the next couple days.

30min Chart
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40 comments:

  1. beetlejuiceNovember 30, 2011 at 11:51 PM

    Personally I think we are about to see a scenario where stock markets collapse, along with currencies which collapse against the USD and gold and silver.
    In other words gold soars against everything but not initially in USD's due to deflationary pressures.
    Only after markets stabalize does gold begin to rocket higher in USD's as well, but that may not be for several months.

    ReplyDelete
  2. SCDecember 1, 2011 at 6:12 AM

    The indications for tomorrow are quite negative.

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  3. BlakeDecember 1, 2011 at 6:15 AM

    SC,

    Silver would have to start falling hard today if that is going to happen. If it does, I don't think it will see 36 for quite some time. IMO.

    On the other hand, sentiment is already low enough that getting back down to 30 would seem very hard to me.

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  4. BlakeDecember 1, 2011 at 6:15 AM

    "Indications for tomorrow are quite negative" Do you think today will be a positive day now?

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  5. SCDecember 1, 2011 at 6:21 AM

    Today might be sort of flat as the momentum from yesterday burns off.

    I've been looking for this Silver bottom for a while now, but I like the way the geometry is lined up for Silver. Pretty sure now that we'll see that $30. Then a steady grind higher that will take weeks.

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  6. SCDecember 1, 2011 at 6:56 AM

    SPX just backtested the yellow midfork.

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  7. SCDecember 1, 2011 at 8:37 AM

    I know it is difficult to see some of the lines on this chart. SPX dropped right from the yellow line, and trading now near the pink horizontal at 1239.

    ReplyDelete
  8. SantaDecember 1, 2011 at 9:02 AM

    Hi SC

    Looks like a minor decline today…curious to know your thought on the coming Monday more than this Friday, from your cycle work, Monday dec 5 would it be a down day as well? Then dec 6 bounce?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  9. AnonymousDecember 1, 2011 at 9:09 AM

    SC, what are your thoughts on oil topping pattern? Are we done going up in your opinion?

    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  10. johnnyDecember 1, 2011 at 9:10 AM

    S.C.Do we trade a range of 1238-1260 and down after the 6-7.TIA

    ReplyDelete
  11. SCDecember 1, 2011 at 9:23 AM

    I feel fairly strongly about tomorrow being negative, but I don't have much in the way of expectations for Monday. Let's see how things shape up tomorrow, and then we can anticipate what might occur on Monday.

    Oil should decline along with the markets in December, January. It should top soon, and be significantly lower in a month.

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  12. BlakeDecember 1, 2011 at 10:53 AM

    so you are looking for a 9% drop in silver tomorrow? This seems to be a pretty strong market here. /es is extremely overbought but does not seem to care so far.

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  13. BlakeDecember 1, 2011 at 10:56 AM

    I do see potential for a weak close today however

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  14. SCDecember 1, 2011 at 11:08 AM

    What happens on a given day is best measured in probability terms rather than absolutes. Nevertheless, tomorrow has an unusually high potential for weakness, particularly early in the day. Let's see.

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  15. AnonymousDecember 1, 2011 at 11:11 AM

    TRADING STYLE

    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/600/emini240121.gif/

    Best, joed

    ReplyDelete
  16. SCDecember 1, 2011 at 11:50 AM

    So just to be clear my plan is not particularly to bet on an outcome for tomorrow as promising as that may look, but rather to position for a bearish trend to develop next from this level.

    I am satisfied to short at this level is attractive regardless of what happens tomorrow. From the analysis I have done, I could hold a short position for a month and target much lower levels.

    ReplyDelete
  17. SantaDecember 1, 2011 at 12:00 PM

    Hi SC

    From your analysis you mention hitting a target of 1020 in January. But what about after dec 6 to 7, like what is the movement like for the rest of December, know you mention exceptionally bearish, to what extend? any target?

    Lot of noise saying Santa Rally in December.

    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  18. SCDecember 1, 2011 at 12:14 PM

    November was what I called a "whipsaw month". After Dec 6-7 the movement looks steady to the downside. Very little in the way of bounces, rather slow and steady down. Not as fast as what we saw in early August.

    ReplyDelete
  19. SantaDecember 1, 2011 at 12:39 PM

    Hi SC

    So you saying after Dec 6-7, Santa Rally is over, and it will just go down hill all the way to January, target 1020.

    So you dont think 1300 will happen this month?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  20. SCDecember 1, 2011 at 12:50 PM

    Yes, that is the plan. Dec 6-7 could be a slight higher high than today's 1251, or a lower high. In any case not much higher, and the downtrend develops from that point in time.

    I'm afraid Santa's sleigh is in the shop this year. The elves are trying hard to fix the crisis, but parts for this particular sleigh won't be available in December.

    Without him, xmas is looking gloomy this year.

    ReplyDelete
  21. TimerDecember 1, 2011 at 7:50 PM

    SC,

    I think 2 Dec will be a down bias day. Yesterday there is this Venus conjunct Pluto aspect, usually a turn signature aspect for US market within 6 days with 40% chance being a 50 week cycle per Merrimann Vol 3. We will look back and see its effect later on.

    Today early in the US time, we will have

    1. Moon Sqr Sun
    2. Moon Opp Mar
    3. Moon Ssq Saturn
    4. Mer Sqr Nep (Helio)
    5. Sun Sqr Mar *****
    6. Mer Cnj Node

    starting from 04:53 am to 08:24 am. So Europe markets will be key to watch, if these aspects are in effect.

    I expect the Sun Mar aspect to bring in bountiful of energy. The moon/mar aspect should be activator to the Sun/Mar aspect. The Node (recent solar eclipse point and the coming Dec 10 lunar eclipse) is also being activated by Mercury.

    ReplyDelete
  22. AnonymousDecember 1, 2011 at 9:23 PM

    SC et al., dollar fractal im looking at suggests that topping pattern is still in play for usd, window is open until ~jan 2nd 2012, in other words chance of the crash developing from here by then are still very high.

    In general what do you think of such scenario for USD index? too soon? Its kind of consistent with your gold/silver major top right around here:

    http://img828.imageshack.us/img828/7163/sc2636847.png

    ReplyDelete
  23. StockboomDecember 2, 2011 at 5:39 AM

    SCHOOL excellent job numbers came out i don't see any reason market will held back...not sure how usd will react and how gold and silver will behave

    ReplyDelete
  24. AnonymousDecember 2, 2011 at 5:51 AM

    The job numbers are not good at all and just shows you how easy it is to spin these numbers any way you like.

    We need 125000 jobs added just to keep up with population growth. So if unemployment rate drops you need 125k + extra to account for new hires. We got 120K ... so in reality we are looking at negative job numbers!

    ReplyDelete
  25. TheendsendDecember 2, 2011 at 6:11 AM

    It's actually 150,000 that is required to stay in place.

    ReplyDelete
  26. SCDecember 2, 2011 at 6:25 AM

    It seems lately everything is taking a little longer than I think. Down from here today, and Monday bottom.

    ReplyDelete
  27. beetlejuiceDecember 2, 2011 at 6:31 AM

    All I know is that the USD is not confirming this upside in the markets.
    If the dollar closes flat to slightly higher today LOOKOUT Monday.

    ReplyDelete
  28. SCDecember 2, 2011 at 6:51 AM

    Agree beetle, Monday could be bloody. As I said yesterday I thought we could see that today, but it may be unavoidable for Monday.

    ReplyDelete
  29. SantaDecember 2, 2011 at 6:55 AM

    Hi SC

    So does that mean there maybe some cycle work change? I mean since everything takes longer, maybe Dec 6 -7 will move to Dec 7-8, no?

    As well, we bust through 1560 today already, would that mean we may just see somewhere near that on Dec 7 -8 according to your cycle? or we heading higher?

    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  30. beetlejuiceDecember 2, 2011 at 7:17 AM

    Notice too how quickly the Slow Stoch has reached overbought on the daily charts of SPX and INDU and others.

    Piling on the shorts very soon

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  31. SCDecember 2, 2011 at 7:24 AM

    I think bloody Monday, and then last bounce into around Dec 7th. That could just be a lower high.

    My view hasn't changed, very bearish.

    ReplyDelete
  32. SCDecember 2, 2011 at 7:38 AM

    Silver is a short imo. The effect of this extra time is that the target outlined above for point 3 is lower. SLV $28.50, future $29.50 roughly.

    ReplyDelete
  33. TimerDecember 2, 2011 at 8:17 AM

    EURUSD just tanked south after passing through the Sun Mar Square aspect.

    The rest of the stock markets still holding up as it sank. I wonder why the lag ?

    http://i41.tinypic.com/wkg2md.gif

    ReplyDelete
  34. SCDecember 2, 2011 at 9:21 AM

    One of my cycles is peak bearish into Sat night. Yes, they work all weekend. They don't stop with the mkt closing on Fri.

    ReplyDelete
  35. AnonymousDecember 2, 2011 at 9:56 AM

    SC: sorry we are closed on weekends. come back later. lol

    ReplyDelete
  36. SCDecember 2, 2011 at 9:58 AM

    Yes, it makes Monday interesting though.

    ReplyDelete
  37. SantaDecember 2, 2011 at 1:39 PM

    Hi SC

    wondering your target on SPY next week for the low? 122?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  38. beetlejuiceDecember 2, 2011 at 5:38 PM

    Take a look at the Eur/Usd weekly chart.

    Stochastic still heading down
    MACD negative and still heading down
    50wma kissed the 200wma and the 50week is now turning back down
    If it breaks through the potential double bottom then its going back to the June 2010 lows and given the way the daily chart is looking then a break is set-up for next week.

    The dollar is signalling a major hiccup in markets...RISK OFF big time next week IMO

    ReplyDelete
  39. SS76December 2, 2011 at 8:44 PM

    I think SC has it right though, Monday may be down, but the rest of the week with the Euro meetings on the 9th, will likely be positive for the markets...........then perhaps, the perfect short.....perhaps. Where my opinion differs from SC, is that I think next weeks high will be closer to 1290 rather than 1250, but of course todays weak close makes it a little tougher.

    ReplyDelete
  40. tonyDecember 3, 2011 at 8:17 AM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete

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