The crash is anticipated to start from Dec 27th or 28th, and could reach the 1044 SPX target on January 6th. Steep declines may come on Dec 28th through Dec 30th according to the cycle analysis system.
This summer, I used the same cycle analysis system to pinpoint a selloff into August 10th +/- 1 day, and mentioned this date many times in my July analysis. It is the same system that I am using this time as well.
This should be taken as a firm warning!
60min Chart
Of course SPX could push higher short term, but determining the top tick may prove problematic, and the bigger picture is more important.
ReplyDeleteJust started reading your blog and I'm amazed by your call for last week's carnage...Just hoping that I read it before getting in to a long position the week before. Do you think VIX will spike during the crash?
ReplyDeleteLooking at the headlines me too I don't feel too good about the rally on Tuesday and I'm considering selling my longs and get into 2x VIX future before the inevitable decline. Thanks!
Thanks, yes I do see the VIX spiking. Keep in mind that we are into xmas holiday trading now. If things are quiet into Dec 27th then the VIX may have some short term downside yet.
ReplyDeleteInto this Friday may be flat to down for SPX. The 27th looks quite positive in my cycle work.
I don't think there is a big rush to make moves just yet. I wanted to post this analysis in advance.
Yesterday I said,
ReplyDeleteSC said...
From tomorrow until Dec 23rd looks weak again, Dec 27th looks quite positive. I'll be watching around 1241 which is where that horizontal pink line rests.
December 20, 2011 7:37 AM
NDX has lost over half the gains from yesterday.
lots of pressure on gold today SC, you think it is ready to make that new low or you still think it has another 100 points up before the predicted crash?
ReplyDeleteSC there is a big turndate coming on 28th.I agree with next week but think we bottom here and go up into Friday maybe Monday morning.Would like tosee my oscillators all at the top
ReplyDeleteStill expect to see near 1700 for Gold in coming days. Needs to consolidate here.
ReplyDeleteI only see mild negatives in my cycle analysis into this Fri for SPX. In any case the expections for selling pressure are low for this week. The action is next week.
ReplyDeleteI agree with you SC.
ReplyDeleteAccording to my model, silver is expected to rise until the end of the week; Silver should close above $ 30.
Let's see
$30.80 looks about right for Silver.
ReplyDeleteA test of 1216 SPX looks likely for this week.
ReplyDeleteI should also mention that Jan 6th is likely a date for a low. It is also quite possible that the slide down takes longer with Jan 6th only a low on the way down.
ReplyDeleteJust a question of time, my target will be 1044 SPX regardless.
SC silver isn't looking strong at all...
ReplyDeleteyou till think we get to 30.80 by 27th?
SC, silver hit 30.2 (10DMA) already, could this been the high and down we go from here?
ReplyDeleteI'm satisfied Silver heading higher. Consolidating now, and so typically, Silver likely to spike all of a sudden up to that target.
ReplyDeleteShould hit 1250-60 by e.o.w ,market closed 26th,France downgrade catyalist
ReplyDeleteSC We are
ReplyDeleteHeading to the top.............
http://markethighsandlows.wordpress.com/2011/12/21/update/
Scotty, so you are figuring market top of 1270 sometime next week? Perhaps that works well with SC's analysis for top on Tuesday, and major market meltdown starting on Wednesday.
ReplyDeleteSC, do you think 1270 is possible? Tomorrow pullback is likely however potentially a strong day on Tuesday takes it there?
SC .. what do you think about the massive shooting star we painted on the dailies for gold and silver today on the dailys.. Doesn't that point to silver and gold getting taken to the cleaners tommorow?
ReplyDeleteOr at least a strong possibility of it?
SPX closed above the pink line at 1242, and that may indicate a high tomorrow morning, and selloff later in the day and Fri low. Let's see how things go tomorrow, and will have a better indication of levels for Tues.
ReplyDeleteThe gap between the NDX and SPX is growing large. NDX closed today at equivalent 1174!
Silver has been a little soft, but Gold holding fairly well, and that is a good sign for both. It's just back and fill action absorbing the selloff from last week imo. Still looking for higher levels in next few days.
Careful with HVU guys. Was looking at the VXX 3 year chart, and what it taught me, is the fees and contago effects on the VIX futures is insane, so never buy and hold this stuff or you will guaranteed lose money, despite the wild price swings. That said, if you can buy in close to the time when it spikes, then you should be in good shape. I'm wondering if that time is coming for HVU but my recent research has made me much less sure. I think I'll split my short position on Tuesday between HSD and HVU. The other thing to consider is that the biggest gains on VIX related products, can happen in the weeks after a major event as the market volatility picks up and fear increases of another "bigger" event that almost never materializes (hence the market psyche).
ReplyDeleteSC, I think Silver has already topped at $30.20, and unfortunately that was not during trading hours. The ONLY way I see Silver reaching anywhere near $30, is with a 40 point SPX rally on Tuesday. Otherwise, I do not see it decoupling from the markets near term.
ReplyDeleteJust my opinion of course, but I feel it could be headed to $26 (of course if it breaks this decisively then $21 is next, what a gift that would be) before it breaks $31.
Hi SS76,
ReplyDeleteYou mention:
"Careful with HVU guys. Was looking at the VXX 3 year chart, and what it taught me, is the fees and contago effects on the VIX futures is insane, so never buy and hold this stuff or you will guaranteed lose money"
How does that affect ppl who just buy HVU common stock only?
Thanks!
/SI trading like death warmed over....
ReplyDeleteIn TVIX....
I am considering whether a high may be hit today. There are some indications for a weak close today and tomorrow could be a weak. Monday is closed but the cycle analysis looks negative on Monday. It makes me wonder if Tues opens lower, but then rallies. Tues Dec 27 looks positive, but the high may actually be today.
ReplyDeleteVIX finally acting interesting for a bottom in or near.
This count is on life support, although still valid as long as as /SI trades above ~28.69.
ReplyDeletehttp://screencast.com/t/hm43ZxQN
Today's SPX action: http://screencast.com/t/8rKQIqDhkT
Banking a bit of profit today from my NYA cycle low that I posted on Dec 13th. Will add on pullback, as I think January is going to be strong and will surprise many.
ReplyDeleteIf you think we topped today then gold and silver are a dud until next tear?
ReplyDeleteAt this point just letting things unfold, waiting for the right moment. Could still be the 27th.
ReplyDeleteSC when you say today could be high you mean for snp or metals?
ReplyDeleteThanks
It could be a high for S&P, but certainly nothing confirmed at this point.
ReplyDeleteMetals and stocks are going in opposite direction so your analysis may be shaping up very well here that metals will skyrocket soon....it is a big question wben...plus oil is running with stocks and detached from commodities so that twlls that oil will fall as well along with stocks....
ReplyDeleteSC, you expect the selling to begin in earnest starting Tues/Wed?
ReplyDeleteYes, still some time away, but let's see how things shape up into Tues, and take it one step at a time.
ReplyDeleteSC
ReplyDeletei believe december 27th is holiday for tsx...so are we done for metal till january 6th? and headi.g lower to test 26?
And surprisingly US market is open from monday! no holidays there....looks like canadians may end up holdi.g bag....
Thanks
Definitely seems like SPX is forming a top here as it makes another run at the 200MA. I would suspect a French downgrade next week could spark some fire.
ReplyDeleteWe'll see about dates - still have tomorrow, and also the negative cycles I am seeing don't start until the 28th.
ReplyDeleteSC.. what are you seeing for silver tommorow and tuesday?
ReplyDeleteSC, this is just a thought, but where is the volume for a big downdraft going to come from over the holiday season? The market can melt up on low volume, but Wall Street is practically closed now until the new year.
ReplyDeleteSC do you follow gold ?
ReplyDelete"Advance Warning"-- Gold Sell Signal
http://markethighsandlows.wordpress.com/2011/12/22/update-12-22-spx-gold-advance-warning-sell-signal/
ES futures already up 7 points....has me nervous going into tomorrow. SC, you saw weakness in your cycles from Wed through the end of the week.....however the opposite has happened. What do you think now, and could perhaps next week be wrong also?
ReplyDeleteCurious as to how you would explain this. Now, that said, ES is right at the 200 day MA, so we'll see if that holds or not.
The cycles into Friday are mildly negative. The expectations were low for selling pressure since yesterday due to the mild readings. Next week starting on Wed is extremely negative for 3 days in a row. Much more weight is put on extremes.
ReplyDelete2011 has been the year of surprises so far. Usually holiday trading is quiet, but this year might be an excetption. We'll just have to watch and see...
Yes, I follow Gold and Silver closely. Both are setting up for exciting moves.
Demark had some interesting things to say today - mentions that the VIX is near bottom.
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/83290816/