Sunday, October 26, 2014

$VIX - Low Due in 1 Week

VIX made an exaggerated spike up in October once it broke above the red resistance.  VIX is now back under the red resistance.  Therefore, some short term downside for VIX is likely.

An important low for VIX is anticipated due in 1 week.

S&P Cycles were mixed in October.  There were short term cycles in October that were quite negative, but some were surprisingly positive.  The result was a very choppy month.  In contrast for November, the Cycles turn extremely negative and remain consistently negative for S&P throughout the month.

The large scale VIX Cycle is heading much higher into December.

Daily Chart 

Thursday, October 16, 2014

$SPX - 2014 Target

Next, there is likely to be a 2-3 day bounce only for SPX.  The rest of October looks choppy and can see 1800 tested later in the month.  Bounces will be typically sharp.

November is setting up to be the weakest month.  Cycles are extremely negative for November.  The selloff is anticipated to take another 6 weeks to test near the major trendline. 

The low is due late November to early December.   

4day Chart

UVXY is likely putting in a short term high.  It should cool off for 2-3 days to test the blue support which is the August high.

The up trend for UVXY is forming and it is early.  Another 6 weeks of upside in this trend is anticipated.

Daily Chart

UVXY is likely putting in the green star high currently.  Each bar is one day. 

Friday, October 10, 2014

$VIX - Just the Beginning

VIX did break out above the red line resistance.  According to the VIX Cycle this is just the beginning. 

However, the market will likely calm down next week as some consolidation is due next.  Sideways next for a week or so.  Then, SPX is likely to weaken and continue to grind lower later in October.  

The Cycle suggests a much weaker November and December with VIX accelerating higher.   

Daily Chart

VIX Cycle 1:

UVXY is starting to warm up.  It's testing the blue resistance and previous peak in Aug.  Look for a small dip next week to backtest the breakout.
Expect a grinding up trend to develop.  Larger pops are due late in Oct, and it will be choppy.  It should surge much more smoothly in November once all the resistance is cleared.
The up trend is developing.  Targets are in the $70 to $80 range for 2014, and $175 to $245 in 2015.

Daily Chart

UVXY is likely developing an up trend similar to below.


Friday, October 3, 2014

$VIX - Second Yellow Arrow Low

It does appear that the Second Yellow Arrow Low is in place.  As well, VIX pushed up quite strongly from the low giving confidence to the Cycle continuing to play out.

VIX is currently testing and finding some resistance at the historical red line resistance.  VIX will likely be choppy for a few weeks next as it can continue to test the resistance before breaking out in late October.

The Cycle shows a massive spike up into a December high.  October looks moderately weak for the markets with a downward bias.  November is likely to be the worst month according to the Cycle.

Daily Chart

Before (Aug 1 chart analysis):

Daily Chart

VIX Cycle 1: