The chatter amongst traders recently has become increasingly focused on minute details. Sometimes it is helpful to zoom out and see the "lay of the land". The best charts are often simple ones.
A test of the white trendline is the target that has been proposed for early 2012.
The fact that SPX is currently trading at such an important technical level sets up 2012 to be an interesting year to say the least!
7day Chart
Nice ! FTSE also at resistance http://chartramblings.blogspot.com/2011/12/blog-post_24.html
ReplyDeleteThanks Chartrambler, happy holidays!
ReplyDeleteSC,
ReplyDeleteWhat's the likelihood we touch the purple mid-line in 2012?
Near zero chance of that in 2012. The big down pointing forks look scary, but they just show strong resistance at current levels.
ReplyDeleteThe reality is that there is powerful support at the white line.
http://cyclicalmarketanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/12/spy-top-is-in.html
ReplyDeleteHi SC, just came across your blog. Was just reading your monthly updates. I see on the 20th you were predicting a crash on the 27th? Is this still in play given Friday's technical break? To be honest, I'm not seeing any catalyst for a sell off over the holiday break given the lack of news and volume. Any thoughts on hitting 1300 on the S&P in the next few weeks as everyone is expecting? Thanks
ReplyDeleteYes, predicting the large decline to commence shortly. My cycle analysis turns very negative on Dec 28th for three straight days including Dec 30th.
ReplyDeleteThe indication is for a sizable decline into Jan 6th or 9th. The next target is 1044 SPX - 220 points lower or a 20% decline. The entire process is likely to take weeks to bottom.
I'll be watching for a top in the next few trading sessions. 1270-1275 is a spot to watch possibly, but 1300 is too optimistic in my opinion due to the shortage of time until the anticipated turn date.
Merry Xmas everyone :)
ReplyDeleteAccording to my model on silver, this week should be really bullish. I expect silver prices in a range $30-$32 at the end of the week.
What do you think for silver this week ?
Cheers
SC,
ReplyDeleteAre you expecting this coming drop into 6 or 9 Jan to reach 1044 for SP500 ?
SC, thanks for your reply, that's a very bold prediction. I confess, I am a bit skeptical. A drop like that over a traditionally bullish season would require a massive tail risk event such as a sovereign or bank default. Predicting those kinds of events are like rolling dice.
ReplyDeleteSPX should be much lower by Jan 6-9, but likely this date is a spot for a small bounce on the way down. The whole process is likely to take longer.
ReplyDeleteMy prediction is there will be "Lehman-like" fears in Feb/March. BAC is heading for a break-up at that time imo. The high for BAC was $55, and it has now lost most of it's bounce since the 2009 low. Frankly, it just isn't sustainable, or viable. The market has already spoken on BAC.
Notice I say "Lehman-like" because the fears will be reminiscent of Lehman. However, I am not overly bearish, and only seeing a 50 point undercut of the Oct 1075 lows. There is powerful support at 1020.
$31 for Silver looks achievable this week.
ReplyDeleteSC, when do you think silver will start to decline ?
ReplyDeleteA quick spike for Silver $31 and then it can retest it's lows in the $27-28 range soon afterwards. This will be an opportunity as I see Silver setting up for a parabolic move into Feb $37 area.
ReplyDeleteSC, thanks again for the reply. I'm net short, just so you know where I stand. I've been watching BAC closely as well. I have to say, the recent strength in BAC has me surprised as I'm sure you as well. Nevertheless, my bearishness is tempered by this current rally which seems to have given the tech signals the bulls have been itching for to push the markets much higher. To suggest the contrary, that we plunge this week, as nice as it sounds for me, sounds unrealistic. Let's see how this week progresses. BTW, do you follow the currencies too, specifically the EUR/USD?
ReplyDeleteSC, What does the white line represent? Does it date back to some earlier trend line or support level? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteBAC has managed an oversold bounce recently up from the low due to a relentless downtrend. It may bounce some more short term. However, it is incredibly weak having lost most of it's value in an overall flat year for SPX.
ReplyDeleteYes, I do follow the Euro situation as well. Europe is still weak, but overall I think the negative news is more likely to come from the US rather than Europe over the next few months.
Yes that white line originates in the 1970's, and then in 1996 the market broke out above into the tech bubble. I think it is the most important dividing line that there is....
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cnbc.com/id/45790082
ReplyDeleteThe intensity of the BAC chatter is increasing.
Look like there'll be a BAC bailout within the next few months at this rate.
ReplyDeleteIt's not a new problem, but they will have to do something with it soon.
ReplyDeleteThe market is forcing their hand.
It's been a recurring theme for a while, but when BAC slips under $5/share for several days there will most likely be forced selling brought on by institutions - that will force their hand.
ReplyDeletePM's just continue to bleed
ReplyDeleteYes, Gold hovering at 50% retracement to the lows Dec 15th.
ReplyDeleteSC,
ReplyDeleteWhat is your target for the 6th-9th?
Thanks
SC, from current action it seems unlikely that gold and silver will rally sharply this week before pushing lower. Any insight? Thanks! Hope you had a nice holiday
ReplyDeleteBlake, you need to wait a few days; Again, at the end of the week, silver is likely to set above $30.
ReplyDeleteOn my SPX charts, the yellow fork line comes in at 1197 on Jan 6th. So that is a minimum target on that date. The target for the entire downleg is 1044 though I think the slide down could take a month to reach there.
ReplyDeleteToday always looked positive for SPX, things turn negative starting tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteGold and Silver are slow, but the action should pick up. I still think we should see a spike up in the metals.
Thanks Blake, hope you had a nice holiday as well!
Wow,
ReplyDeleteDoug Kass (whom I respect) is calling for all time highs on the SPX in 2012.
My work is bearish until Spring. I see a solid bounce from 1044 area, but that still is not the bottom. Expecting a panic and test of 1025 area after that. All of this is going to take months, and shows up in my symmetry work. I'm sure this is what is coming.
ReplyDeleteThis outlook sounds quite bearish and gloomy for the coming months, and yes I see a 20% drop from current levels, but consider that even 1025 is only 50 points lower than the Oct low.
ReplyDeleteSo really my outlook isn't all that bearish.
I think Doug called a bottom at 1100 which was a decent call. I don't see his new high call working out given the timelines.
Yes, Doug called the 666 bottom (what he deems as a generational low) and the bottom in Oct at 1075.
ReplyDeleteHe thinks the first half of 2012 will be flat and at the end we rip higher led by financials of all things.
His call in 2010 for 2011 was that SPX would finish flat............which was spot on.
Early Warning Sell Signal
ReplyDeletehttp://markethighsandlows.wordpress.com/2011/12/27/update-12-27-new-mkt-map/
Well, I'm holding HVU, so the combination of your price forecasts, along with the amount of DEBT that needs to be rolled over in January alone, could be making for the perfect storm.
ReplyDelete28th looking positive so far. Man, I hope the next 3 days are bearish, I'm short.
ReplyDeleteSC, you da man.
ReplyDelete