A crisis is about to erupt. The charts for Gold and Silver are extremely bullish near term.
Tomorrow looks much weaker than today in my cycle analysis. The target remains 1,044 SPX.
30min Chart
Thursday, December 15, 2011
$SPX - NDX Still Leading Down
The slide has been steady down from the triple top as anticipated. NDX continues to lead on the downside. The low VIX is an indication of unusually high complacency, and this is a very bearish signal.
A crisis is about to erupt. The charts for Gold and Silver are extremely bullish near term.
Tomorrow looks much weaker than today in my cycle analysis. The target remains 1,044 SPX.
30min Chart
A crisis is about to erupt. The charts for Gold and Silver are extremely bullish near term.
Tomorrow looks much weaker than today in my cycle analysis. The target remains 1,044 SPX.
30min Chart
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ReplyDeleteAR is prompting that we might get a HO signal today.
SC,
ReplyDeleteConcerning Silver, do you still project a complete collapse in silver and gold after silver reaches your $37 price target? If so, do you have updated timing?
Thanks Timer.
ReplyDeleteNDX gap is increasing steadily yesterday and today. The mkt may well manage to rally into the close today, but tomorrow could be ugly.
Keep a helmet ready!
Yes, I have Gold/Silver charts ready for 2012. The year 2012 is going to be amazing for all markets. We're in an unprecedented time for the markets.
ReplyDeleteTechnically the market is being boxed into a corner with many decades of trading history. This is why we see all of these extreme moves on an ongoing basis.
SC,
ReplyDeleteWhen do you plan to show the 2012 Gold/Silver charts? Will the charts be for the entire year?
If 2012 is going to be amazing for all markets, does this mean major down, major up or major volatility?
Thanks for all your analysis.
I wait until the market is near a turning point to show the charts. That way it puts the focus on the market that is directly in front.
ReplyDeleteThe charts are shown typically early to give some time.
The biggest and most common mistake is to focus more on price than time. Most traders would be better off focusing on time first, and then price. Timing doesn't have to be perfect, but it is important to get a good entry.
SC, your symmetry charts for metals do not necessarily pin point the time of a reversal but rather relative price levels, am i wrong? In other words we could easily have some chop down for another 1-2 weeks and then reverse, or is there something pointing to the fact that reversal is around here?
ReplyDeleteThe symmetry chart definitely will not pinpoint an exact time of reversal. However, I have another pattern that I use, and the timing for reversal can't be far away imo. Within days.
ReplyDeleteI mentioned earlier that tomorrow has the potential to be weak for SPX. In the past sometimes this has come in a day late. So Monday might be that day instead. Sunday/Monday looks weak in the cycle analysis.
Interestingly Dec 28 to 31 looks very negative.
ReplyDeleteI am getting that week as a silver bottom and jan 1st as a top for the dollar.
ReplyDeleteSC,
ReplyDeleteif your outlook is as you have stated (spy target1044), then do you still think silver will go up, as, not only is silver perceived to be a flight to safety option, but also an industrial metal.
do you have a time frame for the SPY target of 1044?
appreciate your response, thanks
Good question.
ReplyDeleteSilver and Gold both can trade in correlation to SPX and also inversely. Lately they have been correlated, but when a safe haven trade kicks in, then they trade inversely. For example late July/August Gold and Silver rose with SPX declining.
So yes, I expect Silver to rise with the market declining. Basically the safe haven demand overwhelms the industrial. My target is $37 which is a nice move from this level, but only slightly higher than the late Oct high.
Gold is a "cleaner" safe haven trade. The move in Gold will be more dramatic than Silver, catch more attention, but I see the targets for Gold and Silver equal on a % basis.
thank you, SC
ReplyDeleteFor SPY, I have some timing charts coming to expand on what dates to watch.
ReplyDeleteI think next week will be bullish, with the day to short/buy HVU coming on December 23rd. I think the Italian bond auction starting on the 28th, after Christmas, will be the start of the serious downward pressure on the markets. Mid January Italy has to roll over a bunch more debt, so SC's January low of 1044 looks very likely right now. I for one would be very happy to see the markets take off next week.
ReplyDeleteSC,
ReplyDelete1044 seems to be a medium term target. For Friday and Monday, do you have a closer range price target levels ? What is the bias of the price direction ?
Let's see what tomorrow looks like, and Sunday/Monday have quite a negative bias for SPX imo. Tues/Wed look more positive.
ReplyDeleteThings may be quiet around xmas. Dec 28-31 look very negative. There should be quite a selloff at that time.
1inBluemoon: I liquidated DZZ & am long AGQ for this bounce. There is/was an exp megaphone targeting GDX to $50-50.25 that we were targeting, although SI was showing relative strength & bottoming pattern. SI nailed first TL target this morning & @ 61.8 reretracement. If strength continues & we overlap, I will hold.
ReplyDeletehttp://screencast.com/t/JRdx9Be6Hdt0
Nice chart ABQ
ReplyDeleteOn a performance basis since October, NDX is currently trading at the equivalent of 1183 SPX.
ReplyDeleteThe bottom is going to keep falling out.
On Dec 7th I said:
"The mistake many will make is to try and pick a bottom all the way down. Don't fall into this trap. Sit, relax, and wait for the bottom. Target 1044 SPX."
SC,
ReplyDeleteI think a short term low will be formed either today or next Monday, next week we will be launching the rebound. What do you think ?
Yes, agree that makes sense. Monday low, and a bounce with the bottom falling out around Dec 28th.
ReplyDeleteSC, p/c ratio tells us reversal could be near by as well?
ReplyDeletehttp://img560.imageshack.us/img560/4295/sc9223785.png
It looks that way doesn't it. Monday possibly.
ReplyDeleteSC, also interestingly if you plot fibo time zones from the jan low for silver on daily chart you get a direct hit on today +-day. Kind of supports your reversal idea for metals. Lets see!
ReplyDeleteSC,
ReplyDeleteSo you expect the Vix to continue to drop as the S&P drops, or will it one day explode to the upside?
The VIX will explode.
ReplyDeleteHi SC
ReplyDeleteWith your target of 1044 with spx in January, are you predicting then that VIX will explode around that time or sometime later in your cycle work.
Thanks!
Around Dec 28th might be a spot where the VIX starts to gap and really run.
ReplyDeleteHi SC
ReplyDeleteIn term of gain, would you go for VIX then or silver and gold? consider they both seem to be popping soon from your cycle.
Thanks!
Dec 28th, 29th, and 30th all look really negative. So the VIX could make quite a push over that time period. It looks like this year ends on a sour note.
ReplyDelete2011 - the year of surprises...
I'm going to spend some time charting the VIX further this weekend, and will be in a better position to judge how and when it moves.
SC, i started looking at the dollar fractal some time ago and was amazed at how well it correlated with 2011. First i was able to project the dollar break out date +- a few days, then it marked the first dollar top, the next dollar bottom followed now we are in the potential topping pattern similar to 2008. I'll let the charts speak from here (see below). First - chart at the top is 2008- you can clearly see consolidation from march to july followed by the break out from the channel. That break out day is important, i use it as an anchor point for future date projections (double red circle). There are a several important dates that follow: first top/bottom followed by major top in oct-dec 2008. Note the pattern of the big top - its a head and shoulders/triple top followed by a significant decline into December 2008. Now onto the second chart - 2011. The same consolidation, in fact it took 144 days in 2008 to consolidate vs. 138 -147 days in 2011. I was waiting for that date. Imagine me freaking out when dollar started breaking out a week earlier! It took two attempts but it was out of the channel in 147 days, only 3 days off and i was able to calculate this date months in advance! My concern was that there may be some time factor, the fractal couldn't keep the same timing i thought. the time may have changed/compressed/expanded. onto the next turning point: first top. It came in 12 days earlier than projected date - 10/16/11. First bottom, on the other hand, came in on the same date as projected 10/27/11! Next high was only a week off. 11/25 vs. 12/1.
ReplyDeleteThe implications are that the fractal seems to be still active. It follows similar time frames and most important thing is that in 2008 dollar topped out in november and then finally in march 2009. The first major top date today corresponds with 12/26/2011, or exactly 10 days from now. The beginning of the first dollar decline in 2008 (lower high) corresponds with 1/8/2012 after that date the decline would be expected. In 2008 the decline was quite significant and it marked the beginning of the next big leg up for the metals. Final dollar top came in march 3rd 2009 and corresponds with 4/6/2012 today.
So the period of consolidation indeed could be very short this time around. We should keep an eye on these dates, dig into the charts may be you'll pick up something i did not. The turn may be closer than most think, in fact we may have turned already!
http://img687.imageshack.us/img687/5065/dollarfractal.png
SC,
ReplyDeleteCan you assist to chart SPXU as well. Thanks.
SC, if we look at the Global Markets; Emerging Markets were the first to fall & Developed Markets specially started to Corrected after some time; exactly this is what we are seeing; We have seen BRIC nations almost at or near or some have also broken 2011 low.
ReplyDeleteBluemoon,
ReplyDeleteExcellent work, thank you for that comparison. The timing of events on the dollar makes a lot of sense going forward. The pieces of the puzzle are fitting well. Remember what happened to S&P in Nov 2008...
Why is it that I look at silver and see a bearish picture?
ReplyDeleteDeclining volume off Wednesdays low confirming a bearish flag.
Looks like lower lows to come to me.
SC I think if the stock market takes a hit silver isn't going to go unscathed and the dollar is still signalling trouble in fantasy land
Beetlejuice, gotta agree. Silver looks really weak, and frankly looks set to follow the markets lower. It just seems like it will get hit harder than the rest since its such a small market. Hopefully the rest of the week is more positive for silver, tomorrow is not looking good.
ReplyDeleteGetting worse by the minute. I'm going to be scared to see what Silver looks like in the morning. S & P call looks good though, just the decoupling idea isn't holding true.
ReplyDeleteWeakness in the futures last night. There could be some weakness today. Starting from tomorrow morning and into Wed look stronger (for SPX). Silver a little soft this morning, but holding well over the last few days. The S&P futures tested the levels last night of Dec 15th, but Silver and Gold held up higher.
ReplyDeleteSilver and S&P likely rise into Wed (even if a little weak over the next day).
From Wed into Fri looks weak for mkts, Dec 27th looks very strong. Dec 28-30th look very weak.
SC do you still maintain 37 target for silver?
ReplyDeleteMy thinking on Silver is that from mid-July to mid-August it pushed up with S&P declining. On individual down days for S&P in the summer, sometimes Silver was up and sometimes it was down, but overall it pushed higher.
ReplyDeleteSame thing now.
It will be the safe haven trade that pushes Silver and Gold higher. Prices are attractive for Silver and Gold at this level, and the safe haven trade is about to start up. There isn't much fear around currently, but there will be soon....
Yes, Silver may bounce around here, but the target is $37, and will take weeks to get there.
SC,
ReplyDeleteUS dollar is testing the resistance that marked the beginning of crash in '08, equivalent of august 8th, 2008.. gold fell 15% during that dollar break out, but per fractal we should not break that level yet, not for another 3-4 weeks:
http://img842.imageshack.us/img842/5231/streamingserver8321772.gif
for PM bears - if this level does not hold i see 24$/oz silver written all over, could even overshoot to the downside because of panic this time around. Gold silver ratio is in bullish alignment testing overhead resistance at 55 .. if its taken out 60+ gold silver ratio could be achieved fairly quickly, thats 14XX/oz gold at least.
New low for BAC this morning.
ReplyDeleteMy view on the dollar fractal chart (which I quite like) is that we are already in Oct of 2008 in terms of the dollar.
ReplyDeleteThere is absolutely no way Silver and Gold are going to those levels.
SC,
ReplyDeletewhat i find interesting is that in 2008 silver already reached the bottom by the time the intermediate top on the USDX was achieved on 11/21/2008. this today would correspond with bottom in silver in place by or around 12/26/2011 if we are to continue following the pattern.
This would also imply that the dollar is near the intermediate top/ stock market is at the intermediate bottom. USD has one more chance to top before 1/8/11 then weakness should kick in for a couple of weeks.
SC, per my calculations we are at 11/14/2008
ReplyDeleteBluemoon, that means Gold and Silver have little or no downside. Same as 2008.
ReplyDeleteMy thinking is S&P is about to put in a short term bottom. Tomorrow morning perhaps.
Silver and Gold bounce significantly for a week. Maybe another chance to accumulate Silver/Gold Dec 28-30 with S&P tanking.
Hi SC
ReplyDeleteLooking for your input on silver price this week and next week? you mention silver bounce significantly for a week (which week is it that you seeing?)
Thanks!
Starting today/tomorrow Silver/Gold can run up into Dec 27th. Let me show a chart on how this would look.
ReplyDeleteI'll have the short term charts out later. Everything going very smoothly.
ReplyDeleteToday down day for SPX as expected.
Hi SC
ReplyDeletesilver and gold running up to dec 27, is the silver target of $37 around those date? or later on in January and the rise for this week is just a small one?
Thanks!
I don't think you'll see Silver at $37 in just 3 days.....the way I'm feeling, we'll be lucky to see Silver at $30. Anyways, it is due for a bounce, just hope it happens very soon.
ReplyDeleteWhat seems clear to me though, is that the safe haven trade seems to be reappearing with Gold, but NOT with Silver.
SC, why do you think Silver will be a safe haven too? Gold has always behaved differently to Silver, and it is doing the same now. Gold had minimal losses today while Silver was hammered.
SC
ReplyDeletedo you see a retracement above 1240 on the spy THIS week?
thanks
It will take weeks to reach $37 for Silver. I have a plan for Silver and Gold in terms of short term moves. Let me show those charts tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteGold is the "smoother" safe haven trade. Silver is more erratic with quick moves. I'll show why Silver is acting this way in the short term charts. It makes sense.
SPY may be able to reach near that level, but more likely Dec 27th.
ReplyDelete