Wednesday, July 25, 2012

$SPX - Positive Short Term Cycle Underway

The low appears to be in place from the previous negative cycle, and now the positive short term cycle is underway.  The target is above SPX 1380 on this positive cycle.

It will likely be an "erratic" move up in a stair step fashion with dips along the way. 

30min Chart

Monday, July 23, 2012

$SPX - Negative Short Term Cycle Update

Last week, SPX was rejected at the fork line, and fell in accordance with the negative short term cycle.  Support is just below, and has reached the target outlined in analysis from Wednesday, July 18th.

Therefore, price should start to stabilize as it finds support.  The next short term SPX cycle is positive, and that is the case for the majority of this week and also perhaps into early the following week.  

60min Chart

Wednesday, July 18, 2012

$SPX - Short Term Update

The SPX cycle has turned negative already yesterday, and will continue to be the case for several days.  Fork resistance is just above also.  The short term cycles for the majority of next week do look more positive though. 

After some weakness for a few days now, next week SPX could continue to grind up until late in the week.    

60min Chart

$SPX - Major Resistance

SPX is trading at major resistance, and likely to fail.  The negative short term cycle is underway as of yesterday.  A short term downside target is outlined for the next several days.

15min Chart

Tuesday, July 17, 2012

$SPX - Failed at Resistance

SPX failed at the red fork resistance this morning.  There are several other resistances just above also.  A negative cycle is due today, and continues for much of this week.

The bigger picture remains very bearish.  Once momentum fizzles from the June 4th low, a large decline is anticipated.

15min Chart

Sunday, July 15, 2012

$SPX - Approaching Resistance

Resistance is just above, and failure is likely once again during the next several sessions.  The dominant feature of this week is the negative concentration in the cycle analysis during the middle part of the week.  Expect a sudden drop this week. 

The bigger picture is that upside is limited, and the current phase of whipsaws is nearly complete.  The 3 and a half month old bear market that began at 1422 SPX in early April is soon to continue much lower with the countertrend rally nearly complete. 

Big picture charts with bear market downside targets and timing for SPX will be presented shortly.   

15min Chart

Saturday, July 14, 2012

UVXY - Initial Spike Coming

There is a concentration of negative cycles for SPX during the middle part of this week - July 17th to 19th.  That typically suggests a sharp and sudden drop for SPX.  UVXY should spike during that time frame perhaps into the green zone.  It probably will settle back down and cool off after a spike.

15min Chart

The much more important picture to understand for UVXY is that a significant bottom is forming at this level.  Along with numerous cycles and patterns, the exact geometry of the fork and trendline suggests no significant downside remains for UVXY.  The upside targets are outlined. 

Daily Chart

Friday, July 13, 2012

$SPX - Short Term Update

The cycle analysis was negative every day this week, and the result was 6 straight days of declines for SPX.  The cycle analysis remains negative for the majority of next week.  There are some fairly positive spots later in July.

SPX bounced exactly at the orange fork.  From today until Tues there seems to be a decent probability for a bounce or sideways action.  After that, next week, the weak cycles could take over once again.

15min Chart

Wednesday, July 11, 2012

$SPX - Yellow Zone Tested

As expected according to previous analysis the yellow zone is being tested for SPX.  Bounces were rejected at the oranage fork.  On a short term basis there is some support at this level.  Therefore, another phase of consolidation could be in order next. 

A major zone of resistance has built up above now. 

15min Chart

Sunday, July 8, 2012

$SPX - Freefall Commenced

Price reached the green target, and collapsed from that level.  There is some support at the yellow oval for SPX.  Watch for that level to be tested next.  Even if SPX tries to bounce back up from the yellow support there is major resistance above now.  Therefore, any attempts to bounce would result in failure once again.

The cycle analysis is negative this week, and regardless of short term gyrations, a July freefall is imminent with the downside target at 1245 SPX.

30min Chart
UVXY started to rise gradually as expected according to analysis shown in green from Tuesday, July 3rd.  A large bullish wedge is in place.  Price is gaining strength which is perfect at this stage. 

There will likely continue to be small rallies and dips short term as it continues to build a strong base.  The outlook remains extremely bullish for UVXY.   

30min Chart

Tuesday, July 3, 2012

$SPX - Freefall Imminent

SPX is approaching the target at the red fork outlined in June 4th analysis.  The price pattern has worked well, and the topping process for SPX may take several more days to complete.  

A freefall is imminent.  Downside targets are shown for July.  

30min Chart

June 4th chart analysis:

Daily Chart

This is an outstanding setup for UVXY.  The minimum and maximum targets are outlined below.

According to the analysis, few dips are expected for UVXY up to the minimum green target.  The maximum red target could be possible in the most extreme case. 

60min Chart